Mobius Poker Profile picture
Poker coach/researcher
Feb 28, 2024 8 tweets 2 min read
Update on the Ignition/Bodog bots and collusion:

I'm afraid I don't have any good news to report.

@IgnitionCasino has, to my knowledge, not issued any refunds, or made any press releases about this issue. I'm forced to go by what I and others in my network are seeing. Additional thoughts and observations below...

First, Ignition is not a secure site. They have refused to refund players even when the most blatant collusion has occurred (see quoted thread for examples).

Play there at your own risk.

Nov 13, 2022 12 tweets 2 min read
Stuck on what bet sizes to use in no limit cash games?

Here are ALL the bet sizes I suggest you use on the flop and turn

Use this strategy if you want to get to the river simply with a balanced range, and dramatically simplify your study and play

👇👇👇 Bet sizing is usually overcomplicated in poker training videos, and by GTO trainers

The truth is, you can get away with one size in most flop/turn spots. I try to use only one bet size as much as possible, and I never use more than two
Mar 10, 2022 5 tweets 1 min read
3 tips for playing through a downswing:

1. Don't expect yourself to play your A game. Instead, shoot for a B+. Maybe you won't make the really sick plays that you make when you're totally dialed in, but you should still be very profitable in the games 2. Don't change your volume schedule significantly. Increasing volume will reduce your ability to focus. Decreasing volume will make the downswing feel like it's never going to end. Just put in the hands you planned, give or take a few thousand, and try to play as well as you can
Mar 7, 2022 14 tweets 3 min read
🧵How to fix burnout 🧵

Nothing is going to truly prepare you for the biggest downswing of your life. It's sort of like being a surfer who has only surfed 10-foot waves. Then, one day, a 20-footer comes out of nowhere Before you even have time to react, this massive thing is on top of you, and it's about to crash. There's no going over or under the wave. You can't go around it. You just have to ride the fucking wave, and it's really scary
Dec 10, 2021 11 tweets 2 min read
"Give me six hours to cut down a tree and I'll spend the first four sharpening my axe." –Abraham Lincoln

I'm a strong believer that two hours of work with a specific plan beats six hours of aimless effort every time

Here is the simple system I use to be more productive: 1. Each day, write down exactly what you want to get done. Be as specific as possible (including how much time you expect it to take)
Dec 9, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
Some variance calcs from an article I co-wrote on my RIO blog called "Selection Bias in Variance Calculations"

(1/4) Average Maximum Downswing: This is the worst downswing you should expect to see *on average* in a sample of this size

90%/95% Confidence Intervals: You can be 90%/95% confident that your biggest downswing will not exceed this value in a sample of this size

(2/4)
Dec 8, 2021 5 tweets 1 min read
4 common traits I've noticed in low performers as a poker coach:

1. Low performers are unwilling or unable to focus on what matters

They are extremely focused on small, insignificant details and rarely interested in fundamentals or the big picture 2. Low performers are uncomfortable with consistent, gradual improvement over the long term

They tend to flip flop between not changing anything at all, and changing too many things all at once
Dec 6, 2021 25 tweets 4 min read
A thread of 24 observations/lessons from my career coaching and playing poker so far:

If you don't know who I am, I've played poker professionally since 2018 (results in my blog), and I've been the head coach of @PokerDetox CFP since 2019. Results below:

If you want to be really successful in poker, your approach to the game needs to be fundamentally different from the average poker player

If you're not sure whether your approach is fundamentally different, then the answer is it's not. You would know, trust me
Nov 22, 2021 14 tweets 3 min read
1/14

A thread on why c-betting your entire range on the flop in high frequency spots is a good idea (and a more general lesson in poker strategy development): 2/14

It's well known that there are a lot of boards where c-betting your entire range on the flop for a small size is correct in theory, and is effectively unexploitable

For example, single broadway low low boards (e.g. Q62) as IP PFR in a single raised pot
Oct 12, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
(1/4)

How I think about variance:

I imagine I am in a rowboat on the ocean. My average speed is 1-2 miles per hour, but my speed is affected by the winds. Sometimes I go 5 mph, sometimes I go -3 mph (2/4)

In the short term I have very little control over my speed and progress. I am at the mercy of the winds (variance)

But in the long term, the winds have almost no control over me

The problem is I am stuck here in the short term–it's all I can see