HelloBello just went BellyUp. That is, they just filed for bankruptcy.

HelloBello is a diaper business that was on pace to do $180M in revenue this year.

I just looked at the bankruptcy documents. Here's what you should know: 1. The background.

HelloBello was cofounded by Kristen Bell and Dax Shepard - two big name celebrities.

They started the business with one of the founders of Honest (another ~failed diaper business), and Dr. Phil's son.

That sounds like a joke but it isn't.

Stripe is the largest privately held company squandering the biggest opportunity.

With Stripe's scale, it has the ability to go beyond being merely a credit card processor.

It can become a SaaS provider on the side of small business.

Here's how: First, let me start by saying I love stripe.

I've used it across 3 businesses that have processed more than $250 million. It's intuitive, fast, and easy.

But Stripe competes with Braintree/Paypal on price, when it should be in a league of its own.

Here's how it can do that:

1/I’ve failed at starting businesses far more often than I’ve succeeded.

You never hear about the 25 businesses I tried to start but could never get off the ground, because people only talk about the wins (including me).

So let me tell you about a couple of my failures.. 2.1/ I wanted to start Kayak for Mortgages.

I applied for a mortgage in 2014, and the process was awful. Mailing in bank statements? Filling out the same fields about my net worth, SSN, and income five times?

I started Native Deodorant by actually buying deodorant sold on Etsy and then white-labeling it.

I don’t talk about this story often, but I think it is a good example of how scrappy entrepreneurs can be, and so wanted to share it.

Here’s the story:
👇👇👇 1. A lot of people ask me how we made the first bar of Native Deodorant. The truth is I went on Etsy and bought a bunch of natural deodorants that were for sale there. Some were great, and some were terrible.

Super pumped to announce that @mrsharma and I are going to start a podcast about consumer products and the DTC world!

We're launching in June, so stay tuned!

Here's how it came to be: @mrsharma and I go to Barrys or Rumble pretty often, and then go get smoothies afterwards and chat about business.

These conversations are super engrossing. I always want to run home afterwards and immediately start working.

The numbers don’t lie. I think The Honest Company should be sold in the next year.

Here's why: 👇👇 2. Honest a cheap stock. The company is valued at $426M. In addition it has $272M in assets and $93M in liabilities, meaning it has ~$180M in net assets. That means the business is actually trading at just $246M.

1/ One of the most interesting and challenging aspects of M&A that’s emerging within the ecommerce industry right now is sales tax.

If you’re thinking about selling your ecommerce business anytime soon, please read on:

👇👇 2/ For a long time, ecommerce businesses had to collect sales tax only in the states where they had a nexus. Nexus was basically defined as having a physical presence. Do you have employees in Florida? Yeah, pay taxes there. Is your inventory in Ohio? Then Ohio too.

1. Facebook stock is down 50% over the past 6 months, and advertisers are fearful that FB is no longer the platform that empowers them to reach their audience cheaply and accurately.

Here are 5 ways FB can reverse their fortunes and improve their ad platform:

👇👇👇👇👇👇 2. Let me start by saying I own a lot of Facebook stock. Millions of dollars worth. And I’m buying millions more. So I am biased. Because I believe in the long term viability of the company.

1. Shopify stock is down 50% over the past 12 months. Its mission may be to "arm the rebels," but it is giving us muskets in a war that is increasingly being fought with machine guns.

👇👇👇 2. Let me start by saying I own a lot of Shopify stock. I love the brand and want it to do better. Native Deodorant is on Shopify, as are other brands I own. I’m down 6 figures on today’s announcement alone. And I own more Shopify outside this account, so I'm probably down $200K

The real estate market is still exploding, but is poised to implode when the government stops bailing out investors.

Here’s what no one is talking about:

👇👇👇 1. The housing market is being fueled by investors. That makes sense. Housing is a great hedge against inflation and benefits from tax laws that can be found in no other industry.

I'm giving away a Facebook Ad Audit to 5 people.

Why I'm Qualified: I've spent ~$100M on FB Ads. A FB executive said I was "one of the best advertisers" on FB.

Here's what I'll do for you and how to get the audit:

👇👇👇👇 What I'll do for you:

1. Send me view access to your ad account + Shopify Store.

2. I'll go through your ads and think about what I'd change/optimize + think about your landing pages

3. We can chat for an hour and you can listen to my ideas or reject all of them.

Prediction:

Casper will be sold in the next 2 years. I might buy it.

Here's why:

👇👇👇👇 1. It is a cheap stock compared to revenue. In the 3 months ending June 30, 2021, it did $152M in revenue.

It trades at less than a $160M valuation today.

That means it trades at 1X last quarter's revenue. Insane!

I read through the @RenttheRunway S-1.

This is the document they file when they want to go public, and reveals the inner workings of the company.

My thoughts: their fashion may be sustainable, but the business model ain't.

Read more
👇👇👇👇👇👇 1. The average subscriber wears 54 different brands in their first year as a member!

That's crazy. I wear the same thing everyday (including underwear)!

I've purchased $5 million worth of investment real estate in the past 12 months in Texas. I manage it.

Here's what I've learned:

👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇 1. Find your niche.

You don’t want to compete against institutional money, since they are starved for returns and will overpay (they will artificially boost their IRR through financial shenanigans). Find a niche they aren't targeting, like sober homes.