Let me get this straight to you all.

Even if Russia leveled Ukraine with nukes, NATO would not dare lift a finger (well, maybe they would issue the "direst sanctions").
1/5 This is due to the fact that if NATO were to retaliate for the leveling of Ukraine with a nuclear strike, Moscow would launch retaliation, destroying London, Berlin, Paris, Stockholm, and Washington DC (and possibly drowning the U.K.) before the first nuclear bombs would have hit Russian soil.
2/5

Europe stands at the verge of a catastrophe.

When @POTUS took power, there were hope that he would A) restore the relationship between two nuclear powers and B) understand the actions leading to the Russo-Ukraine conflict, defusing them.

This hope has now (almost) failed. 🧵1/ President Trump started with a correct note by re-establishing connections with Moscow. He also put President Zelensky in the "presser" with @VP .

However, he seems to have used his position only to establish the mineral deal with Ukraine. This can be seen as a grave mistake because it 1) alienates Moscow and 2) ties the U.S. into the conflict.
2/

I hope @POTUS understands this. There will be no peace in the European continent as long as your bases are here.

There's no threat of a Soviet Union anymore. We've dealt with Russia for centuries without the U.S. "support". Those times were rather violent, but that was mostly because actions of western and central European states, not because of Russia.

The U.S. essentially created the Russo-Ukrainian war, leading to the slow economic demise of Europe. This is something the Deep State has been planning since, at least 1997.

I've explained this thoroughly in my piece detailing the history of NATO vs. Russia, which main points I will summarize here.
🧵1/9 What follows is a quote from Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski. He was a Polish-born political scientist, who served as a counselor to President Lyndon B. Johnson from 1966 to 1968 and as a National Security Advisor for President Jimmy Carter from 1977 to 1981.

He was probably the most influential political scholar in the U.S., known for his very hawkish stance towards Russia and China, and as a major proponent of NATO enlargement.
2/

You think you know what happened during the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008?

The road to the GFC is long and complex. In its heart lies an innocent innovation to manage risks better, until authorities messed everything up.

The road to an (epic) financial crash. 🧵 Basically since the birth of banking, banks have been in the forefront of risk distribution through diversification and hedging. In the US, banks started to sell mortgage-backed debt obligations to investors already in the 1960s.

The idea was to distribute risk outside the balance sheet of banks, which would make more funds available for bank lending.
2/

The level of war-propaganda in Finland is massive.

@iltalehti_fi speculates that Russia is planning to restore the 1743 borders established in Treaty of Åbo to create a "buffer-zone". Russia would also strike Helsinki with missiles.

And there's much more. 1/13🧵 Just six months ago, our government-funded (propaganda) channel @yleuutiset notified that Russian military bases near Finland are nearly empty.

I guess Russia plans to attack Finland "with shovels".
2/

Russia and Israel are treated totally differently in spite of the fact that both are waging wars of invasion. The major difference is that while Russia is engaged in an existential war, Israel is waging a war of expansion.

Thread on Russia vs. Israel. 🧵1/12 For an untrained eye, it may appear that the motivation behind both wars, in Ukraine and the Middle East (Gaza/Lebanon/Syria), would be the same: threat.

The difference is in the level of threat experienced.
2/

A friend asked me sometime ago, how do I always attract women everyone wants to f*ck. The simple answer: just be a fucking man.

Your looks and content of your wallet are irrelevant to non-toxic classy women, which you want into your life. But, you need to be brutally picky.
1/ Even in the deepest depths of my depression in my teenage years, I did not settle. I knew what I wanted. Never settle. ☝️

This means that you need to spend extended perios of time alone, because top-class women do not want a womanizer either. Be comfortable in your own skin.
2/

If it holds true that NATO has struck Russia with a tactical nuclear weapon, we would have entered a very dangerous world.

First of all, the whole nuclear deterrence policy of Russia would have been thrown out of the window. Some excepts from my article: Strategical asymmetry in a game theoretical model of a tactical nuclear first strike. 1/5
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Most importantly, if the analysis of @cirnosad is correct, as I start to believe it is (no personal expertise, though), we would have entered an era of nuclear warfare, with horrendous implications. Another excerpt from my article.
2/5

The fraudulence of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. 🧵1/12

The #FederalReserve has accrued massive “paper” losses. How does it handle these?

Source: The Fed’s Remittances to the Treasury: Explaining the 'Deferred Asset' The Fed is currently arguing that these gargantuan deficits (losses) do not to matter, because it can accrue seigniorage revenue (from its money 'printing'; see my post to subscribers here) ad infinitum. So, it claims to be solvent despite of these losses.
2/

While we wait for the mayhem to come, I feel I need to come clean on something.

Everyone who has been close to political decision making, with the courage to see, knows that we're in a power-game that's mostly played in the "shadows". 🧵1/13 Very few know all the players, and many of us experts do not even want to know. Yet, you quickly understand (if you're smart and courageous enough) that the game is about the 'hearts and minds' of politicians.
2/

A thread explaining, why importing men from Africa is an extremely bad policy, and the likely reason why our elite is pushing for it.

A general result in development economic research is that uncontrolled migration destroys the cohesion of a country.
🧵1/15 Especially so, if the migration comes from a culture that is considerably less developed.

This holds for the broad range of African countries. Reasons can be debated, but the fact is that African societies tend to be unable to reach a higher level of progress.
2/

I was the economist behind my former friend, current Minister of Foreign Affairs @elinavaltonen for five years. Our pact was to bring back the market economy to Finland and save us from the Federal EU.

We parted ways after she took part on a Bilderberg meeting.
🧵1/12 I learned about her participation only after the 2019 meeting. During that summer she also met with @EmmanuelMacron and something changed. The change was gradual, but little by little her tone changed to support the current political order, which we agreed to object in 2015. 2/

In my latest, I deal with the U.S. private sector recession, which has not manifested to GDP-figures, yet, because of the gargantuan fiscal stimulus by the @POTUS administration.

A short thread on why the U.S. in a recession already (link to newsletter article in bio).
🧵1/8 Commercial and industrial (C&I) loans has been one of the most trustworthy recession indicators since late 1940s. It's currently signaling that the U.S. corporate sector has entered a recession.

Yet, there's more.
2/

I just hope everyone would understand the brutal automation of war. When the gears of war start turning, they are very hard to stop. This is why World War I flared up in just a week, which we may shortly repeat.

A WWI history thread.
🧵1/17 The road to WWI is actually rather long and cumbersome.

Its main foundation was laid in 1879, when the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the German Empire (the “Second Reich”) formed a military alliance. Italy joined in 1882, and the pact was named as the Triple Alliance.
2/

Some history lessons for the "no peace on Russia's terms" people.

Finland and Russia (Soviet Union) fought two wars between 1939 and 1944, where Finland eventually lost 12% of her landmass. First was an aggression by the Russian side and the second from Finland.
🧵1/12 The aggression of Russia in the fall 1939 was based on the secret amendment of Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, where Finland was placed on the "sphere of influence" of Russia. Russian leadership staged a 'false flag' attack, of Finland to Russia, in the village of Mainila.
2/

Dear Laura,
I thought I write few lines to you publicly, as I know you occasionally "spy" on me here. 😉😁

I want U to know that I hold no grudges. Connections break (again) and mistakes (even larger ones) happen to us all 🙋. Don't worry about them. Just learn, and heal.
🧵1/6 You've had such a gruelling period of year and a three months, since your rape by the "respected Danish guy". 😡🤮

I truly believe that the conspirators have tried to destroy you, and us, because of what we could achieve together. I've seen your potential, and it's great. 🤩
/2

So, I've now used most of the day to read the news, blogs and rumors on #WagnerCoup . Here's my five cents.

The attempt was real supported, probably, by West-leaning Olicarchs. West at least knew that something is about to go down, and CIA, etc., may have played a role. 1/6 In Rostov, it became clear to #Prigozhin, and probably to Putin also, that the coup will be unsuccessful. Many Wagner troops were lured into the attempt by false premises (tends to happen in coups) and they turned back.

Local governors and people also sided with Putin.
2/

An unpopular opinion.

After being single for 3 1/2 years, and after meeting a lot of women, I have arrived to the conclusion that a vast majority of modern women are nothing more than an hindrance.

We should be talking about 'toxic femininity'. 1/8 I would give two 'diagnostic criteria' for a "toxic" woman:

1. She builds an attractive public profile to seek validation from other women and attention from men.
2. She uses 'ghosting', victimization, public outcries and accusations to deal with difficult emotional issues. 2/.

In the coming weeks we will publish our in-depth analysis on the global banking sector, concentrating on Europe and the U.S.

Our findings and the list of most vulnerable banks will be provided to our paid subscribers, only.
1/4
@GnSEconomics
gnseconomics.substack.com This is for the simple reason that we do not want to feed the panic or cause a bank run.

We are also naturally highly committed of bringing the most accurate and timely information to our clients, where our allegiance lay.
2/

Some comparisons between GFC 1.0 (2007-08) vs. GFC 2.0 (now).🧵

2006, July: The S&P Case-Shiller national home price index peaks and starts its long decline.
2021, April: U.S. CPI grows by a shocking 4.2% (Y-o-Y) starting its long acceleration and aggressive rate hikes.
1/17 2007, 13 September: BBC reveals that the BoE has secretly given £21 billion liquidity support to mortgage lender Northern Rock leading to run on the bank the next day (first bank run in the U.K. since 1830).
2/

#SVB had around $175 billion worth of deposits vs. $125 billion in the FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund (total).

Deposits have already been transferred to Deposit Insurance National Bank of Santa Clara, where they should be available to depositors.

How is this going to go?
🧵1/7 Shareholders and uncovered debt holders (bond owners) will be wiped out.

Next the SVB (mostly its loan book and assets) is probably sold to whoever wants to buy it.

The money from the sell is then most likely used to cover some share of the uninsured deposits.
2/