If it holds true that NATO has struck Russia with a tactical nuclear weapon, we would have entered a very dangerous world.

First of all, the whole nuclear deterrence policy of Russia would have been thrown out of the window. Some excepts from my article: Strategical asymmetry in a game theoretical model of a tactical nuclear first strike. 1/5
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Most importantly, if the analysis of @cirnosad is correct, as I start to believe it is (no personal expertise, though), we would have entered an era of nuclear warfare, with horrendous implications. Another excerpt from my article.
2/5

The fraudulence of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. 🧵1/12

The #FederalReserve has accrued massive “paper” losses. How does it handle these?

Source: The Fed’s Remittances to the Treasury: Explaining the 'Deferred Asset' The Fed is currently arguing that these gargantuan deficits (losses) do not to matter, because it can accrue seigniorage revenue (from its money 'printing'; see my post to subscribers here) ad infinitum. So, it claims to be solvent despite of these losses.
2/

While we wait for the mayhem to come, I feel I need to come clean on something.

Everyone who has been close to political decision making, with the courage to see, knows that we're in a power-game that's mostly played in the "shadows". 🧵1/13 Very few know all the players, and many of us experts do not even want to know. Yet, you quickly understand (if you're smart and courageous enough) that the game is about the 'hearts and minds' of politicians.
2/

A thread explaining, why importing men from Africa is an extremely bad policy, and the likely reason why our elite is pushing for it.

A general result in development economic research is that uncontrolled migration destroys the cohesion of a country.
🧵1/15 Especially so, if the migration comes from a culture that is considerably less developed.

This holds for the broad range of African countries. Reasons can be debated, but the fact is that African societies tend to be unable to reach a higher level of progress.
2/

I was the economist behind my former friend, current Minister of Foreign Affairs @elinavaltonen for five years. Our pact was to bring back the market economy to Finland and save us from the Federal EU.

We parted ways after she took part on a Bilderberg meeting.
🧵1/12 I learned about her participation only after the 2019 meeting. During that summer she also met with @EmmanuelMacron and something changed. The change was gradual, but little by little her tone changed to support the current political order, which we agreed to object in 2015. 2/

In my latest, I deal with the U.S. private sector recession, which has not manifested to GDP-figures, yet, because of the gargantuan fiscal stimulus by the @POTUS administration.

A short thread on why the U.S. in a recession already (link to newsletter article in bio).
🧵1/8 Commercial and industrial (C&I) loans has been one of the most trustworthy recession indicators since late 1940s. It's currently signaling that the U.S. corporate sector has entered a recession.

Yet, there's more.
2/

I just hope everyone would understand the brutal automation of war. When the gears of war start turning, they are very hard to stop. This is why World War I flared up in just a week, which we may shortly repeat.

A WWI history thread.
🧵1/17 The road to WWI is actually rather long and cumbersome.

Its main foundation was laid in 1879, when the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the German Empire (the “Second Reich”) formed a military alliance. Italy joined in 1882, and the pact was named as the Triple Alliance.
2/

Some history lessons for the "no peace on Russia's terms" people.

Finland and Russia (Soviet Union) fought two wars between 1939 and 1944, where Finland eventually lost 12% of her landmass. First was an aggression by the Russian side and the second from Finland.
🧵1/12 The aggression of Russia in the fall 1939 was based on the secret amendment of Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, where Finland was placed on the "sphere of influence" of Russia. Russian leadership staged a 'false flag' attack, of Finland to Russia, in the village of Mainila.
2/

Dear Laura,
I thought I write few lines to you publicly, as I know you occasionally "spy" on me here. 😉😁

I want U to know that I hold no grudges. Connections break (again) and mistakes (even larger ones) happen to us all 🙋. Don't worry about them. Just learn, and heal.
🧵1/6 You've had such a gruelling period of year and a three months, since your rape by the "respected Danish guy". 😡🤮

I truly believe that the conspirators have tried to destroy you, and us, because of what we could achieve together. I've seen your potential, and it's great. 🤩
/2

So, I've now used most of the day to read the news, blogs and rumors on #WagnerCoup . Here's my five cents.

The attempt was real supported, probably, by West-leaning Olicarchs. West at least knew that something is about to go down, and CIA, etc., may have played a role. 1/6 In Rostov, it became clear to #Prigozhin, and probably to Putin also, that the coup will be unsuccessful. Many Wagner troops were lured into the attempt by false premises (tends to happen in coups) and they turned back.

Local governors and people also sided with Putin.
2/

An unpopular opinion.

After being single for 3 1/2 years, and after meeting a lot of women, I have arrived to the conclusion that a vast majority of modern women are nothing more than an hindrance.

We should be talking about 'toxic femininity'. 1/8 I would give two 'diagnostic criteria' for a "toxic" woman:

1. She builds an attractive public profile to seek validation from other women and attention from men.
2. She uses 'ghosting', victimization, public outcries and accusations to deal with difficult emotional issues. 2/.

In the coming weeks we will publish our in-depth analysis on the global banking sector, concentrating on Europe and the U.S.

Our findings and the list of most vulnerable banks will be provided to our paid subscribers, only.
1/4
@GnSEconomics
gnseconomics.substack.com This is for the simple reason that we do not want to feed the panic or cause a bank run.

We are also naturally highly committed of bringing the most accurate and timely information to our clients, where our allegiance lay.
2/

Some comparisons between GFC 1.0 (2007-08) vs. GFC 2.0 (now).🧵

2006, July: The S&P Case-Shiller national home price index peaks and starts its long decline.
2021, April: U.S. CPI grows by a shocking 4.2% (Y-o-Y) starting its long acceleration and aggressive rate hikes.
1/17 2007, 13 September: BBC reveals that the BoE has secretly given £21 billion liquidity support to mortgage lender Northern Rock leading to run on the bank the next day (first bank run in the U.K. since 1830).
2/

#SVB had around $175 billion worth of deposits vs. $125 billion in the FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund (total).

Deposits have already been transferred to Deposit Insurance National Bank of Santa Clara, where they should be available to depositors.

How is this going to go?
🧵1/7 Shareholders and uncovered debt holders (bond owners) will be wiped out.

Next the SVB (mostly its loan book and assets) is probably sold to whoever wants to buy it.

The money from the sell is then most likely used to cover some share of the uninsured deposits.
2/

There are signs of escalation everywhere you look.

It seems that Russia used hypersonic missiles in its early-morning raid for the first time. Marked as retaliation, but could also be the beginning of new phase in #UkraineRussiaWar️ .
🧵1/5 Poland and others are sending more tanks, on which first ones should be in operation in Ukraine in this month. Bakhmut, on the other hand, is falling to Russian hands (to the Wagner group).

The war is not going as we in the west have been told. 2/

https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1633440134430375938?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Many have asked me on preparation and my opinions about #gold , #stocks , #Cash and #banks .

We have presented these and preparation guidelines in the following reports, which will continue next week.

Our latest forecasts. 👇
@GnSEconomics
🧵1/10
gnseconomics.substack.com/p/deprcon-outl… The fundamental thing to understand, concerning preparation, is how prices of different assets are likely to behave in the coming crisis.

In this report, we present historical patterns of key assets classes during crises.
2/
gnseconomics.substack.com/p/the-preppers…

During the past week, I and we conducted an in-depth analysis of the U.S. #economy . The results were not encouraging.

First, I discovered that the banking sector was more fragile than previously thought.
🧵1/8
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/the-us-econo… It also seemed that the U.S. credit markets were in the grips of a (fallacious) complacency, shown on the proportionally milder reaction of the "junk" bonds on the current tightening cycle.

But, can the #Fed support the markets in the current situation? We're not so sure.
2/

I have to admit that March worries me, while I "called" it already in November.

This is because it can become a month where "everything" converges to form a 'perfect storm'. I shortly summarize them here.
🧵1/6

https://twitter.com/mtmalinen/status/1595445009045721089

I first warned on the risks ("fracture lines") in global liquidity in November.

We and I have been analyzing them further and it looks that there's a risk of an outright collapse of global market #liquidity in March. 2/
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/an-update-on…

The global business cycle is forecastable around 4-5mo ahead and the provision of liquidity into the financial markets is forecastable around 2-3mo ahead, currently.

The onset of economic crises is much more cumbersome and uncertain to forecasts.

A short 🧵on what's coming. 1/6 The flow of aggregate financing in China sputtered in October and fell of a 'cliff' in Nov/Dec. This implied that

1) This month will see first signs of a renewed decline in econ. indicators.
2) Decline will deepen in March and April.

Details. 👇
2/

https://twitter.com/mtmalinen/status/1623660654673465348

Past week I promised a (long) thread on global #liquidity and so, here goes!

I have been analyzing the current state global liquidity since early November. Then I warned on possibility of an outright collapse of market liquidity.
🧵1/25
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/global-liqui… Basically, I re-iterated our original warning from October 2018, when we had discovered that:

1. Global outside-US dollar denominated debt has risen to a record.
2. The role of non-bank institutions on providing funding has increased.
2/

I'll do one more effort to explain, why the "recession is cancelled" argument is false. 🧵

It is based on ignorance on the forces that lifted the global economy from its slump in the fall.

Global recession is still very much 'on the cards'. 1/17
gnseconomics.substack.com/p/derpcon-outl… Everything you need to know is summarized in this graph. It shows that Chinese business (debt) cycle leads European cycle by around 3-4mo and the global business cycle by around 4-5mo.

In tight turning points (crises), with synchronous response, the lag is shorter. 2/