I agree, this is not a coup. Prigozhin has repeatedly made it clear that he wants to challenge the MoD not Putin. This is why he has taken Rostov rather than attacking the Kremlin. It is still a civil-military challenge but a different type of one.

https://twitter.com/SKalyvas/status/1672548707273695233

Holding Rostov gives him a bargaining chip in negotiation. The fact that Putin has acknowledged that Prigozhin has succeeded in Rostov is significant, it makes Wagner seem more powerful. The question is, what comes next?

Coups tend to be bloodless, in part because the possibility of a slide into a fratricidal civil war scares the military deeply, and coup dynamics are driven by a desire to avoid civil war. Let me explain more concretely. When I interviewed officers and they told me which side they had backed when a coup occurred, their primary motivation was to choose the side that they thought would prevail, and therefore to end the chaos and avoid the possibility of a civil war.

Some very preliminary thoughts about what is going on. First, there are civil-military events that involve trying to change some aspect of the government without going all the way to a coup. In some ways, this protects the challengers since they can plead loyalty. + For example, in Ecuador 1971, troops led by General Luis Jacome Chavez demanded the resignation of the Minister of Defense and the Commander in Chief of the Army. They were arrested but within a week the Minister & Army Chief were fired.

I recall last week seeing a few friends say they weren't sure how to explain this sort of horrific violent event to their kids. I hear the worry, and want to give you a data point which might provide some small reassurance. I don't recall when the first time was that I learned about either the Holocaust or the Partition of India. I grew up on the UWS, Eli Wiesel literally lived across the street, and my father had been a child refugee during partition. The fact of political violence was given.

On Wednesday night, reeling from events, I wrote this piece about how to best understand the attack on the Capitol. It came out Saturday (edits, etc) I'm not here to rehash the definitional debate again, I want to talk about accountability instead washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/… One of the things I said was that understanding it as an insurrection directs our attention to those who are enabling Trumps action and how best to disable and hold them accountable.

Some thoughts on what we are seeing, why it is not a coup, what sort of bad thing it is, and what might make it a coup attempt. First, yes we have been seeing an effort by Trump to remain in power, using various means. And yes, what we saw today was Trump supporters using force to disrupt a democratic transition. But think about what we didn't see - he didn't use any of the security forces, just rabble.

THREAD: Is it a coup yet?
Today a journalist asked me, is what Trump is doing a coup? If not, how can we best describe it? What words should we use?
I continue to argue this is not a coup, but I take seriously the challenge of finding the right language to talk about what it is + I'm still saying this is not a military coup, because there is no threat of force here at all. It is really important for us to point out what Trump is doing, how, & who is helping him. This isn't about force or threat, it's about sheer bluster which focuses us on his enablers.

Attempts to resist democratic transition in the USA are very concerning, but without the use of force (or the threat of the use of force) they are not a military coup. Even an autogolpe requires threatened force to work. + I get what Ezra Klein is saying here & he is right to point out that there is a wholly illegitimate attempt to retain power after losing an election. This is very dangerous. But right now (thankfully) it appears that all of this remains purely civilian + vox.com/2020-president…

For somewhere between the last 5 to 10 years I have tried to share articles about Juneteenth & express my hope that it becomes a national holiday, an independence day as revered as July 4th. Today I want to explain what Juneteenth means to me, esp since I'm not Black + When I first went to Ghana as a graduate student, I remember seeing celebrations of emancipation day and realizing that they were celebrating the British end of slavery but (as I wrongly believed) there was no corresponding American holiday +

Some thoughts about what happened in Venezuela earlier. First, DISCLAIMER I speak only for myself and not my employer. I have no knowledge of what the USG is doing here. TLDR: Either this was a really crappy coup attempt or Guaidó is trying to do something else. (1) Part 1: *If this was a coup attempt it was very poorly handled*
A coup attempt succeeds when the challenger makes it appear that his victory is a fait accompli. This creates a self-fulfilling dynamic. By convincing people the coup will succeed, it does so (2)

SUDAN COUP RANDOM THOUGHTS: When I spoke to a journalist about Sudan yesterday, I said the bottom line was "It's not over yet." I'm writing a piece with the thesis "the current (now old) junta is unstable" But even I didn't expect to see Ibn Auf removed so very quickly. (1) I know it sounds obvious now that Ibn Auf has stepped down / been removed as President, but the early stages of a coup are a period of great flux, and this junta in particular is unstable since it incorporates the same rivals that acted as counterweights to each other before (2)

Thread on Venezuela: Some of you asked for my reaction early on. I was chuffed that you checked in with me, but had little to say until I had time to read. My apologies for the delay. Also, let me put the disclaimer up front. SPEAKING FOR MYSELF AS A SCHOLAR. (1/n) What happened in Venezuela is not yet a military coup. I think it is clear that the opposition and its supporters would like a transfer of power via a soft coup, a non-violent withdrawal of military support for the ruling party. But that hasn't happened yet & may not (2/n)

A thread on the recent failed coup in Gabon. Here's what the coup makers did well & poorly & why it failed. If this topic interests you I also suggest you read my book on why some coups succeed, others fail, and what happens during amazon.com/Seizing-Power-… (1/n) Caveat: This is based on the little bit of information I have been able to glean about what went down last night. Here's how coups work. When a coup attempt begins, officers with command responsibilities look around and try to figure out what will happen next. (2/n)

Thread: Why I do not consider what Woodward is describing in the White House a coup. There has been neither an attempt to change executive nor regime. Quite the opposite in fact. @SeanDEhrlich @sgadarian @dadakim @texasinafrica (1/n) What we are seeing here is two things. The first is an attempt to prop up the nominal government. These are people working from the inside to keep Trump nominally in charge, they aren't trying to get Trump impeached or invoke the 25th amendment.

I have some strong opinions about how best to study for comps that come both from my own comps but also from years of coming up with comps questions & administering comps at Notre Dame. So, a thread:

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Students generally worry about reading and retaining the material. I know I did. But that's putting the focus on the wrong part of the process. The bigger question is, can you use the material in an interesting way.