Naval Profile picture
Matt Pfefferle Profile picture Damilare Onajole Profile picture nicklawler Profile picture Melik Taha Arslan Profile picture Chiel Muurling 🤷‍♂️ Profile picture 374 added to My Authors
31 May
Physical monopolies (phone company, electric utility) aggregate supply and raise prices.

They underpay for demand and make excess profits.

Digital monopsonies (search engine, social network) aggregate demand and lower prices.

They underpay for supply and make excess profits.
Read 4 tweets
21 May
@eladgil @Austen The founder would have to enforce it as agents get politicized. And the first enforcement action brings a mob to the door.
@eladgil @Austen I agree that’s the solution (along with not hiring political people in the first place). But it’s very difficult in practice so most companies end up politicized.
@eladgil @Austen Remote-first companies will get the added benefit of being less political - hire across geographies, measure output, fewer cliques.
Read 3 tweets
16 May
Meditation - The Art of Doing Nothing:
Meditation is your birthright. It's your natural state.
It requires no one, needs no thing, and has no technique.

If something requires a guru, a mantra, or a teaching, it isn't universal, and it won't free you.
We say that we want peace of mind but what we really want is peace from mind.
Read 47 tweets
29 Apr

(a short story)
Morpheus: Wake up Neo, the Matrix has you.

You take the red pill - you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes.

Neo: I have to see it for myself.

<reaches for the red pill.>
Morpheus: The year is 2199. the desert of the real. The last human city. Zion.

Neo: No. Stop. Let me out. I want out.

Morpheus: I didn’t say it would be easy, Neo. I just said it would be the truth.
Read 14 tweets
20 Apr
Recent serology studies may be wrong. But if wrong, they‘re all wrong *in the same direction.*

Finnish: 20-50x undercount
Scottish: 27-55x
Stanford: 50-85x
Italian: 30x
Mass: 17x
Germany: 0.37% CFR
Denmark: 0.21%

If true, COVID19 has much more spread and much lower fatality.
To be fair, all serology tests, if biased, would bias the same way. When the actual percent infected is low and population samples are small, false positives will have an outsized impact compared to false negatives. But none of these shows less than a 10x undercount.
Read 9 tweets
19 Apr
The Swedish approach allows us to measure the cost of building herd immunity using partial and voluntary measures rather than a full shutdown.

Drop your preconceived notions, ignore the narratives, and dispassionately track the data.
As always, I will hide and block outraged and insincere replies mercilessly.
Here are deaths, for people who feel that Sweden may be under testing compared to other countries.
Read 4 tweets
16 Apr
COVID19 isn't the flu.

But for under-45, COVID hospitalizes 1% & kills .014%.

All ages, flu hospitalizes 1.5% & kills 0.13%.

Restricting COVID to under-45s results in 6x flu hospitalizations & 1x flu deaths, & gets us to herd immunity.

Shelter the old, but release the young!

Herd immunity for R0=2.5 is 60%

58% of US population is < 44

Flu infects ~10% of US pop annually

20-44 hospitalization rate = 14.3%–20.8%; <20 = 1.6%–2.5% (CDC)

20-44 fatality rate = 0.1%-0.2%; <20 = 0% (CDC)

Missing 1/4-1/2 deaths, 9/10 cases (NS)
Read 8 tweets
1 Apr
@geeky_bhavani Unfortunately you have to do an hour at a time or it’s not the same thing at all.
@geeky_bhavani Feel free to do whatever you like.

Others are going to hyperventilate about what they think is right or wrong.

What worked for me is an hour a day for sixty days, first thing in the morning, and that’s all I’m able to advocate for.

20m did not work for me.
@geeky_bhavani I’m going to stop responding on this thread as people who don’t know what I said have strong opinions anyway.

No formal challenge exists. Do what you want. This is precisely what I do:
Read 3 tweets
12 Mar
Sorry @avatorl

Bookmark it for later and follow him. I’m sure it’ll be back.
Thanks in advance to everyone adding other sites in the thread.
Read 3 tweets
11 Mar
Current market panic feels overblown. This is a short-term shock.

Asian countries show social distancing (assisted by seasonality in CVs) works.

Headlines will worsen as mass testing begins.

Take it seriously for yourself, wear masks for others.

Don’t panic trade (I don’t).
Read 3 tweets
6 Mar
Very educational talk on coronaviruses from a Johns Hopkins scholar, @AmeshAA. h/t @TokTeacher

@TokTeacher notes here:…

(For the record, I’m more concerned than Brett at the moment)

Interesting parts:
[8:33] Coronaviruses are everywhere and peak in the winter / spring every year

[8:48] All of you have had a coronavirus in your life...just not this coronavirus. And you get reinfected with them, because antibodies fall over time.
[15:10] When a US Senator shames drug companies into stopping Zika vaccine development.

[25:20] We are in a mild-moderate pandemic (in life-years potentially lost).

[26:24] This will become endemic and return in the fall.
Read 8 tweets
4 Mar
Bacteria and viruses are the natural predators of humanity. We are locked in a "Red Queen" arms race, accelerated by increasing population, urbanization, and travel.…
The novel CoronaVirus of 2019 is a dry run for when "enemies of civilization" use synthetic biology to weaponize viruses. It gets easier with every passing day.
A Space Corps looks to spread humanity across the stars. A Bio Corps would look to stop viruses from spreading across humanity.
Read 10 tweets
27 Feb
@CheckMateHere @Price4x Scientific knowledge isn’t generated statistically. It’s generated nonlinearly by a few exceptional individuals.

Anyway, correlation isn’t causation. There are many confounding factors.
@CheckMateHere @Price4x There are also many notable exceptions - Feynman, Deutsch, many who worked on the Manhattan Project.

There’s no trend that more science makes them more left. In fact, it’s the opposite. Faculties move from left to right as you move from social sciences to natural sciences.
@CheckMateHere @Price4x Finally, confounding factors:
- Academia shelters them from the real world
- Radicalizing influence of students
- Selected and promoted based on politics
- Leftists stay in academia
- Reliance on government funding
- Indoctrination during education
Read 3 tweets
21 Jun 19
Going to follow my own advice and switch from using “like” as a general-purpose tool to focusing it on insightful comments.
Update: Holding my conversational replies to the same standard.
This is just leading to disengagement from me. Unfortunately need to go back to liking liberally.
Read 3 tweets
18 Jun 19
Miniaturized drones give tyrants a decisive advantage against popular armed insurgents in a civil war.

Drones may render the Second Amendment obsolete.

And without the Second Amendment, the entire Bill of Rights is ultimately toothless.
(To those who believe that tanks and warplanes already do so - an armed and invisible popular guerilla movement can’t be cleanly identified and engaged with conventional weapons systems)
The countervailing force is that drones dramatically lower the cost to assassinating heads of state.

Which is why politicians won’t allows drones to fall under the Second Amendment, with terrorism and crime as the pretext.
Read 3 tweets
5 Jun 19
@evanserickson @joerogan 1/ No apps, no noise, no guidance. Sit in a comfortable position first thing in the morning, back upright, but ok to use cushions etc.. One hour at a time, no less. Just surrender to and accept whatever happens. No energy for and no energy against. Resist and reject nothing.
@evanserickson @joerogan 2/ No effort. You’re just going to sit there and let whatever happens happen. Sixty days minimum.

If you have thoughts that’s perfectly ok. Let the thoughts happen. The key word is Surrender (to whatever is happening).
@evanserickson @joerogan 3/ Feel free to use pillows to prop up your back, knees etc., get comfy. Because it’s first thing in the morning you won’t fall asleep even if you’re in a pile of cushions.

Tell yourself when you sit down, “my job is to do nothing. I’m taking a well deserved break from myself.”
Read 3 tweets