Some charts to help understand where each sector is at in terms of their aggregate profits and aggregate market cap. (1/9)

Starting with metals: does market know something that we don’t? Healthcare: always bottoms when the line converges. So some more time before bottom?

Table of small-cap earnings yield as measured by their cash flow from operations divided by enterprise value and g-sec below. The difference between earnings yields and g sec has been negative for 11 out of 19 observations. (1/9) 9 out of these 11 observations, the small-cap index has returned negative the following financial year. True to this, FY23 so far has been negative 17%. It is unlikely that we see a runaway rally in small-cap index with such a huge negative differential between earnings & gsec

This is that that year’s top 500 stock constituents by market cap and that that year’s PE. (1/4) This is that that year’s Nifty constituents and that that year’s PE. (2/4)

Natural Gas prices are soaring. Logistical issues, delay in capacity expansion due to covid, decline in storage capacity etc are reasons attributed to this. However these are only temporary. Structural reasons differ. (1/4) Coal plants are being retired. Nuclear continues to demonized. Wind and Solar are unreliable and intermittent. They are like drunkards who need the support of a pole (Natural Gas) to stand. (2/4)

What India can learn from other countries with respect to sports?
How to nurture talent at early stage.

What other countries (rich and poor alike) can learn from India?
How to not be miserly and reward successful athletes.

Prize money for gold winners: (1/4) Prize money for our golden boy: (2/4)

I make horrible market predictions. Then I look at UN’s climate predictions and seek some solace.

health.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/… 1972: 10 years for catastrophe

Fintwit believes Chemplast Sanmar delisted at ₹5 and IPOs again at ₹540 thereby making more than 100x. A cursory look at RHP reveals that CSL paid ₹15 per share of ₹1 face value and not ₹5. Current IPO price of ₹540 is ₹5 face value. In essence the delisting price was ₹75 Which means the difference between current IPO price (₹540) and delisted price in 2012 (₹75) is 7.2x and not the 100x it’s made out to be. What has been the performance of some of CSL’s competitors (chemical pack) since May 2012 till date? See the list below: 👇🏼(2/5)

Can marketing gimmicks and hysteria trump over physics and bad economics? It certainly can in India and many other countries. But let’s take India. Consider this: India’s total solar capacity is 40,000 MW. Excluding roof top & off grid, the ground mounted solar is 35,000 MW 🧵 This on-grid ground mounted capacity is spread over 210,000 acres or 850 square kms. For perspective, Mumbai’s land area is 650 square kms. 1.3x! If you fill the whole of Mumbai with solar panels plus an additional 30% of Mumbai, you get 35,000 MW - our current solar capacity

A humble prediction. Seeds are being sown around the world for a comeback of nuclear energy. In the next decade, we can see government’s around the world approving more nuclear reactors as they realize they aren’t going anywhere near net carbon zero with wind and solar. 🧵 Take Australia for example. It is home to 1/3rd of the world’s uranium - the chemical element needed to produce nuclear energy in reactors but doesn’t have a single nuclear reactor to generate electricity.

google.com/amp/s/www.dail…

It's annual report season. A short thread on what India Inc has to say on the most anticipated narrative: The fall out of Covid and US-China trade war impacting/benefitting India. Indo-Count believes customers are de-risking their dependence on single geography which in turn is an opportunity for India.

Indians love to consume POT. Hence India produces a lot of POT. The P-O-T I am referring to is Potato, Onion and Tomatoe. ;). From just 41% in 2003, POT today constitutes 52% of all vegetables produced in India. 1 out of 2 vegetables produced in India is the POT basket. 1/8 While overall productivity growth is quite abysmal at 1.4% CAGR, POT basket has outperformed the others. Consider this: We produce 19 tons of Onions per hectare as against just 11 tons in 2002 translating to a CAGR of 3.2%. 2/8

BSE-Midcap. Positive returns 11 out of 17 years. 65% (1/4) BSE-Smallcap. Positive returns 10 out of 17 years. 58%. (2/4)

Did you know? India Inc’s (listed ex-financials) cash conversion cycle is down by 27% from 52 days to 41 days between 2011 and 2019. (1/10) Observations:

If you are a large cap company in India, chances are you get paid for your product or service in 21 days. (2/10)

A picture is worth a 1000 words. Thread on the decadal landscape of most industries.. (1/11)

Realty: Realty: Earnings CAGR of -4% 🙈

Indian metals landscape 2010 and now. Ferrous - Brutal. 0% earnings cagr. -6% market cap cagr. Mr Market to Ferrous - No earnings growth, no mcap growth! (1/6) Ferrous EV landscape 2010 and now (2/6)

(1/11) Watched an interesting Pharma webinar Mr. Varinder Bansal and Mr. Madhusudan Kela today. What caught my attention was a point raised by one of the panelists - Why not value Indian pharma like Reliance Industries? SOTP method. (2/11) After all, Indian Pharma companies have different businesses such as domestic formulations, APIs, US exports etc. If you strip the US business, the Indian business will look far closer to a FMCG company. He is right.

Here’s a non exhaustive list of Indian MNCs along with their unlisted subsidiaries. Price to sales assumption marked in red to give a sense of what the ballpark valuation could’ve been if the unlisted were actually listed (1/9) Few observations:

Abbott’s unlisted sub is bigger in size than the listed one and has brands such as Pediasure and Ensure. Don’t get fooled by the reported loss. These are due to high interest costs paid to the parent (2/9)

Attended a brilliant session on valuations by Professor @AswathDamodaran today. Applicable to all countries and markets. Tweet storm coming up. 1. Valuation is neither art nor science. It’s a craft like cooking. You can’t learn cooking through cook books

1/ Check out this interesting conversation between @_nirajshah and Professor @AswathDamodaran.

‘If there is one thing the crypto currencies are, they are not simple’ concludes @_nirajshah gallantly.

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2/ By making that statement, @_nirajshah inherently assumes that central banking, free float exchange system and FIAT money creation are simple and well understood by the Average Joe leading to its high acceptance and usage.