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Nathan Carson Profile picture
Nathan Carson
@ndcarson
8th Gen FL. Geopolitics | Industrial Policy | Ag Markets| Fertilizer Supply Chains. Opinions my own.
3 subscribers
Feb 19 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
A 🧵on American Industrial Policy:

The uncomfortable truth about deindustrialization in America is that part of it was unavoidable. But understanding the difference between policy decisions and trends requires closer inspection. 1/n The combination of the end of the Cold War opening up commerce, the rapid adoption of the shipping container lowering transportation costs, and the invention of the internet lowering transaction/coordination costs made an explosion of international trade in the 1990s truly inevitable. 2/n
Sep 4, 2024 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
A 🧵🧵🧵on Nazi geopolitical thought:

The Nazi policy of "Lebensraum" - that is the belief in the right and duty of a nation to provide ample space and resources for its people - is an idea that was popularized by Karl Haushofer in the interwar period.

Haushofer was a groomsman in Rudolf Hess' wedding alongside Adolf Hitler in 1927. 1/n Haushofer, like many Germans, served in WWI and retired at the rank of major general. He, like many, blamed Germany's defeat on the conspiracy of internal foes.

After the war, Haushofer would become a professor at Munich University and would develop a keen friendship with Hess, even going so far as to provide hiding to Hess after the ill-fated 1923 Beer Hall incident. 2/n
May 20, 2024 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
🧵🧵🧵:

The old Constitutional order exists only in its spirit. The fact is the Managerial Revolution that James Burnham (one of the founders of the American conservative movement) warned about is now complete. 1/n Burnham noted how economies of scale due to industrialization and modernity necessitated bureaucratic mechanisms for organizing society. In the early 20th Century, we saw the rise of the "expert class" as power over different domains of life was granted to them. 2/n
Feb 11, 2024 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Middle school kids used to learn Latin and Greek 100 years ago and now we teach remedial English to college students.

Decline is a choice. Raise your expectations of what is possible. Do not be afraid to condemn those who fail. “Being nice” is not a virtue. It’s the path of cowards who don’t actually believe in anything.

Nothing of value in this world was ever accomplished by being nice. Virtue is offensive to those who lack it. You will offend many by your dedication to excellence.

They are nothing.
Sep 26, 2023 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
🧵on Meritocracy, Aristocracy, & Oligarchy:

It's been said that the US is - or at least was - a meritocracy. Now, it's often argued that the US is under a neo-aristocracy/oligarchy.

But from a social structure perspective, what does that look like? 1/n Every society has some sort of social hierarchy.

There tends to be 3 paths to the top: commerce, politics, and culture. Elites tend to optimize one of those areas, but you need a combination of the 3 to be a truly dominant player. 2/n
Sep 19, 2023 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
🧵on Elites, Decision Making, & Institutions:

The reason so many things are falling apart is professional classes are so far removed from the actual people that get things done, i.e. manufacturing, construction, transportation.

There are no mediating institutions anymore. 1/n In the short time I've been back in ag consulting, I see how so many decisions are based on data that's lacking any context for how the world actually works. There's so much "tribal" knowledge floating around in industry that doesn't translate over into our data-driven world. 2/n
Dec 14, 2022 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
The idea of selfless public servants is quickly revealed as a myth when you realize that individuals don't magically ignore self-interests because they're employed by the state. That's why bureaucrats are so resistant to change and accountability. Btw, this mentality is also on display when you look at the core of big corporations and unions. The goal is to create labyrinth systems to maximize earnings while doing as little as possible. It's the tendency of human nature.
Oct 8, 2022 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
Thread:

No. Conservatism failed because it ignores what it means to be human.

And Liberalism never failed, it was only forgotten. People don’t just exist. They have hopes. They have dreams. They have aspirations.

There’s more to living than being alive.
Sep 4, 2022 • 21 tweets • 7 min read
🧵🧵🧵: Pakistani floods will likely reshape global ag markets and the regional security order.

Flooding in Pakistan is truly biblical.1/3 of the country is underwater. 33 million - 15% of the population - are impacted.

It also harms production of wheat, rice, and cotton. 1/n Pakistan produces 5% of global cotton and 2.5% of global wheat. It also accounts for 9% of global rice exports.

These floods have major impacts for global ag markets.

Let's break it down. 2/n
Jul 24, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Thread on Canada's proposed fertilizer policy:

Trudeau is wanting to cut nitrous oxide emissions from ag sources 30% by 2030. For ag, that means cutting applications of nitrogen fertilizer.

The inventible consequence is mass starvation. 1/n Nitrogen is *the* most important nutrient for crops. The invention of synthetic nitrogen is what allowed humanity grow from a population of under 2 billion to almost 8 billion within a century.

No synthetic nitrogen, no food. Period. 2/n
Jul 6, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
🧵on risk of Eurozone collapse:

Germany exports 45% of its GDP. Over half of exports comes from energy-intensive heavy industry.

Decades of feckless dependency on Russian energy, shuttering of nuclear plants, and "green" utopianism is coming home to roost. 1/n The Eurozone is not an optimal currency zone for reasons I detailed last summer. This means without a shared fiscal policy or massive intra-state transfer payments, the Euro will remain dysfunctional at best and at worse collapse. 2/n
shatterpointgeopolitics.substack.com/p/european-dre…
Jun 29, 2022 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
A 🧵🧵🧵 on elite overproduction:

The implicit promise of university is it's an automatic golden ticket to a six-figure, elite job.

But the oversupply of graduates and consolidation of elite jobs via outsourcing and monopolization is creating elite overproduction. 1/n Image Elite overproduction fosters intense intra-elite competition that is socially destabilizing. Too many would-be elites, not enough elite jobs.

Cancel culture is the result of this intra-elite competition. It's a way to eliminate rivals for elite jobs. 2/n
nationalpost.com/opinion/peter-…
Jun 14, 2022 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
🧵🧵🧵on American elites and foreign policy:

American political elites are old. The establishment is dominated by the Silent Generation and older Boomers. They rose to power 30-40 years ago as the American unipolar moment peaked.

Foreign policy became mostly a sideshow. 1/n Since the end of the Cold War, American politicians have neglected foreign policy. American power was so omnipotent there was no need to worry about great power politics.

All that mattered was dividing the spoils of globalization among fellow elites. 2/n
Apr 10, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Thread.

What many don’t want to accept is that many Russians believe themselves to be ethnically superior and Ukrainian to be ethnically inferior. What it means to be Ukrainian must be erased so that what’s Russian can triumph.

The Russians are engaging in ethnic cleansing. 1/n Many may say that Russians are brainwashed. Maybe so.

But just as the average German bore moral culpability for Nazi war crimes so too does the average Russian bear moral culpability for what’s happening in Ukraine. 2/n
Apr 4, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Thread: A threat to American strawberries.

Plant City is the Winter Strawberry Capital of the US. It's also my hometown. We've grown strawberries for 100 years and supply 20% of US production. It's a $1.1 billion industry for a town of 40k.

That's all under threat. 1/n Because of our tropical climate, disease is a big problem for growers. Thiram is a fungicide that's been used for 50 years without incident. Because many farms are small - often 50 acres or less - Thiram is applied using an overhead sprayer.

The EPA wants to ban Thiram. 2/n
Apr 3, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
This is who and what the Russians are. The same brutality of the Red Army that raped and pillaged its way across Europe is on display in Ukraine today.

The problem isn’t Putin, it’s the character of the Russian people.
Mar 5, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Thread: Everyone wants to claim to be a “realist” without actually recognizing what that means.

There’s actually 3 variants of realist thought, classic, defensive, and offensive. The most popular is offensive realism which was popularized by Mearsheimer in the early 2000s. 1/n Mearsheimer relies heavily on the stability/instability paradox. Nations preparing for war will spook their enemies into interpreting hostile intentions which generates war. Therefore, the goal of every great power is to be the ONLY great power. 2/n
Feb 28, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Let's talk fertilizer.

There's been a lot of panic the past few months over nitrogen prices hikes and the chance of shortages.

But I'm afraid we may have missed the biggest nutrient at risk of skyrocketing prices and possible shortages: potash. 1/n Image There are three nutrients which are critical for all crops: Nitrogen (N), Phosphorus (P), and Potassium (K).

Potash is the fertilizer industry slang for K. It helps plants with resiliency in the face of adverse weather and disease pressures. 2/n

tfi.org/the-feed/ferti…
Feb 27, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Summary of my views on Ukraine:

Politics is the art of the possible. Reality is not a video game. There are limits to American power.

Identifying America’s core geopolitical interests is critical in a growing multipolar world. 1/n As I outlined a month ago, the US must pivot towards a strategic policy of offshore balancing.

I even outlined what the US/NATO should do to counter Russia. Btw, that’s *exactly* what’s happening right now with all the weapon transfers. 2/n

Feb 26, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
This is why I never thought Russia intended to invade all of Ukraine. It just doesn’t have the manpower committed to succeed in a full-sale invasion and occupation.

Putin counted on a lightning decapitation, but now 10% of his invasion force are causalities. 1/n Russia is being forced to redeploy troops from other theaters. It even asked Kazakhstan for troops, but was rejected.

The failure of Russia to achieve any major strategic objectives after 2 days hard fighting bodes ill for Putin at home. 2/n
Feb 26, 2022 • 18 tweets • 6 min read
A thread on the status of the Russian invasion of Ukraine:

Momentum is everything in war. An aggressor *must* keep moving in order to inflict heavy casualties on the defender.

The best way a defender can wreck any offensive momentum is to inflict high casualties. 1/n There have been two x-factors in this fight that have taken the Russians off-guard: Ukrainian espirit de corps and Javelin anti-tank weapons.

The intensity of Ukrainian nationalism the past 48hrs has been overwhelming. The stories of sacrifice and valor are unbelievable. 2/n