President @MinneapolisFed. Views are my own. RT ≠ E.
Nov 13, 2020 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
In this editorial, @WSJopinion asks what I have learned about COVID since the spring. I'm on paternity leave but thought it worth answering. /thread wsj.com/articles/joe-b…
Since June 1, another 130,000 Americans have died from COVID, bringing the current total to around 235,000. Around a thousand Americans are dying each day, yet we seem to be shrugging our shoulders. /2
Jan 17, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I read it but don’t find it persuasive. 6-9 months ago there was widespread talk of an impending recession, triggered in part by yield curve inversion. /1
I believe we (the Fed) were largely responsible for the inversion. We certainly control the front end while the back end reflected muted growth and inflation expectations. Hence in my view we had moved into a contractionary policy stance, which increased recession risk. /2
Mar 25, 2019 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
This article reminds me of a serious beef I have with how we at the Fed traditionally estimate the output gap - ie, is the economy running above or below potential? This has enormous implications for monetary policy. wsj.com/articles/fuele…
We have a view of where we think trend labor force participation is going - generally going down over time because of our aging population. This is sensible.
Mar 22, 2019 • 8 tweets • 1 min read
A few thoughts on monetary policy:
I supported the FOMC’s decisions this week
Apr 17, 2018 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
This @wsj article captures the extreme emotions around the labor market: "historic, severe worker shortages." Sounds like a real crisis. Is it?
(thread) wsj.com/articles/facin…
By several measures, wage growth remains muted (around 2.7%) - much lower than historical episodes with "extreme worker shortages." Usually the price is the best indicator between supply and demand. Price growth for labor is low. Where's the "extreme shortage?" (2)
