I am extremely bearish on the idea that "movie nights" with family and friends will remain a thing in the future. And I say that as someone who just went through a few such nights (watching Christmas movies). A few quick thoughts. 1) Tech (short form video, streaming, smartphones etc.) has changed video consumption patterns. Watching movies isn't what it used to be. While some people are still holding on to the nostalgia, *it* is slipping through their fingers.

Apple just reported FY4Q22 results:

- $90.1 billion of revenue
- $1.29 earnings per share

My estimates:

$89.9 billion of revenue
$1.31 EPS

$AAPL

It's early but numbers look good. Apple's granular 4Q22 results:

- iPhone revenue: $42.6B (my estimate: $42.6B)
- Services: $19.2B (vs. my $20.1B)
- Mac: $11.5B (vs my $10.2B)
- Wearables / Home: $9.7B (vs my $8.6B)
- iPad: $7.2B (my $8.4B)

Good iPhone. Really good Mac, Apple Watch, AirPods. Weak Services/iPad

My suspicion is many funds are "stuck" in some of these tech names that likely represented core holdings in their portfolios. We are looking at long-held narratives being tested and ripped apart. There is still a lot of denial out there as well. This has been a theme that I've discussed / written over at @InsideOrchard for the past year. Yellow flags have been popping up around ad-supported business models for some time. Many don't want to accept it.

Elon Musk has offered to take Twitter private. $54.20/share. $41 billon. The odds of Musk leading a hostile takeover of Twitter went up when he turned down Twitter's board seat offer. Twitter was looking to control Musk and not have him grow his Twitter holdings beyond 14.9% of shares. Musk realized what Twitter was trying to do.

Timers on HomePod haven't been working for me either. I've been using timers on my Apple Watch instead (which come off as a better solution given how I'm able to see how much time is remaining).

(via @gruber)

https://twitter.com/wsanchez/status/1502429045916459009

With a timer, you often need to know how much time is remaining periodically through the timer.

Stock splits fascinate me. They are value-neutral. A company's value does not increase or decrease because of a stock split. However, a stock split can potentially benefit a company in a few ways that few people think about.

A mini 🧵 One potential benefit found with a stock split: Increasing the odds of being added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It's a price-weighted index meaning a company with a $2,700 stock price would never be added to the index. On the other hand, a $150 stock... 2/x

New York Times to buy The Athletic for $550 million.

A few thoughts: Looks like The Athletic is selling itself due to tough conditions versus the NYT buying a company on the up and up.

The Athletic earned $65M of revenue last year. Operating losses were $55M. We aren't talking Amazon 2.0 here. It's a media company w/ an unworkable business model.

As we close out 2021, another big picture theme that I will be monitoring in 2022 is the deeper move into wearables.

A mini 🧵 Long-time readers, followers, listeners, and members will know I have been *very* outspoken about wearables' bright future. There is a very simple reason. Wearables represent the natural evolution of computing in which design lowers the barriers between tech and people. 2/x

As we close out 2021, I want to share a few big picture topics and themes that I think will be worth monitoring in 2022.

Today's mini thread: Peloton. Peloton is in a precarious state. The # of average workouts is down, guidance remains atrocious, and the company slashed bike pricing to generate demand. Nothing seems to be working. Interest in Peloton is declining. aboveavalon.com/dailypremiumup… ($) 2/x

With Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet seeing record high stock prices, attention is once again placed on market capitalizations. Apple is close to reaching a $3 trillion market cap. Microsoft isn't too far behind. Many are asking what's possible looking ahead.

A thread. 🧵 It's easy to get caught up on market caps & view them as just numbers that go ⬇️ & ⬆️. There is little value found in thinking about them in that way. Instead, market caps (stock price x shares outstanding) reflect how the market is valuing a company's future cash flow. 2/x

I'm seeing a lot of "why did AAPL shares perform so strongly yesterday" questions today. Most of the answers given are nonsensical. Apple Car, Omicron, etc. Give me a break.

You want to really know why Apple's share price was up?

A mini thread. 🧵 At a basic level, demand for Apple shares was strong yesterday while supply was tight. Since demand & supply need to be in equilibrium, Apple's share price rose as a result. In theory, higher prices frees up supply while limiting demand. There is nuance but the idea holds. 2/x

Here's a thread of all my public analysis regarding Project Titan and Apple's car project. Spoiler: There's a lot. There is probably 10x more that has been written for Above Avalon members @AboveAvalonPlus over the years. Apple Wants to Design a Car as Ambition Knows No Bounds (Feb 2015).

aboveavalon.com/notes/2015/2/1…

Those thinking Apple's interest and ambition in transportation ends with CarPlay/software are wrong. Apple wants to rethink everything.

The NYT (@kevinroose) auctioned an opinion column as a NFT to see what would happen. Publicity in the form of a follow-up column was offered too. Winning bid: $560,000. The NYT talked with the bidders to assess motive. There weren't any surprises.

A 🧵

nytimes.com/2021/03/26/tec… 2 / Up to the final hour, the auction was normal and reflective of the price a company would pay for NYT publicity alone ($30K to $40K). Everything changed in the last hour. A bidding war broke out (they always do with prominent NFTs) leading to a $560,000 winning bid.

CBS: Apple has a "big announcement" tomorrow that isn't a new product. Gayle King claims Apple's announcement is bigger and better than a new product. Hmmm. 1) Gayle King went to an Apple store to conduct her (remote) interview with Tim Cook. Interesting, no? She could have done the interview from anywhere.
2) A morning show interview implies Apple's announcement will come out pretty early in the day (if not later today).

Apple just released 2Q20 earnings:

$58.3 billion of revenue
$2.55 earnings per share (EPS)

My estimates were:

$57.9 billion of revenue
$2.61 EPS Tim Cook: "Despite COVID-19’s unprecedented global impact, we’re proud to report that Apple grew for the quarter, driven by an all-time record in Services and a quarterly record for Wearables."

1 / I have some thoughts on face masks.

There is increasing talk about face masks on Twitter. That's a good thing. The problem is much of the talk is too obtuse. Few people are going to read 25-page research papers on the topic. There needs to be much simpler messaging. 2 / On a very basic level, face masks are like stay at home directives. We aren't just staying at home to prevent catching coronavirus (although that may be one objective). Instead, we are staying at home to prevent unknowingly passing coronavirus to others.

1 / I say this a lot, but earnings do a great job of putting a spotlight on the problem. I don't think many analysts / pundits truly understand Apple. They don't understand why people buy Apple products. The talking points / analysis ends up being superficial. 2 / Notice how there is always some Apple "crisis." First it was Apple being too dependent on iPhone. Then it was iPhone sales slowing. Then it was Services growth ushering in too much focus on profit. That turned to slowing Services growth. Now it's the ecosystem is too strong.

Apple just released 1Q20 earnings:

$91.8 billion of revenue
$4.99 earnings per share (EPS)

My estimates were:

$89.6 billion of revenue
$4.70 EPS

Wow. Apple's 2Q20 revenue guidance:

$63B to $67B

My expectation: $57.5B to $60.5B (I included a $2B negative impact from coronavirus)

Consensus was $62.5B

Another wow. This is really strong guidance for Apple.

1 / A few days ago, the WSJ published an article about Amazon Prime Video content. However, it was a chart showing Apple TV+ having 33.6 million subscribers in the U.S. that caught people's attention. wsj.com/articles/amazo… 2 / We now have articles like the following (screenshot attached). This is how false narratives and misinformation spread. Notice how this 34 million subscriber number has seemingly taken on a life of its own. A closer look is needed to see what is actually going on here.

1 / There has been much talk about Apple’s “App Store tax” (aka Apple’s App Store revenue share) being unfair and anticompetitive. Unfortunately, the nuance found with the topic is almost always glossed over. 2 / The highlighted section in this screenshot raised an eyebrow for me. Complaining about the App Store “tax” while at the same time not actually paying Apple anything for distributing your app / service is an interesting position to hold. cnbc.com/2020/01/17/app…

1 / Bose announced it is closing approximately half of its retail stores around the world (119 out of 249 including all stores in the U.S.). A few things about this announcement don't sit well with me. theverge.com/2020/1/15/2106… 2 / According to Bose (part of its statement shown below), customers are increasingly buying Bose products online and through other retailers.

OK.

Sifting through the PR speak, Bose's brick-and-mortar retail operation was likely experiencing declining sales & foot traffic.