Things have changed in crypto.

The past week has brought about some very important realisations. Some things will not work anymore.

Here are 3 of the biggest realisations so far 👇 1) The returns from investing in early stage funding rounds is shrinking.

And, in some cases, there aren't even returns.

Case & Point: Layer Zero completed their Series B raise in April last year at a $3bn valuation. However, it's currently trading below a $3bn FDV.

If the VCs who invested in that round bought Bitcoin instead, they would be up 120% and it would be fully liquid. Remember, these investors are likely to be locked up in token vests for up to 2 years. The opportunity cost is massive.

LayerZero isn't the only example here. There were many projects that were heavily VC backed which have been underperforming since TGE.

Retail is a lot wiser to the low float / high FDV game and are way less likely to bid a token just because it has hype with big backers.

There needs to be a way to include retail investors & users earlier on that gives them a fair crack of the whip. Airdrops were the main meta & an attempt to include them early on.

However, that brings us to the second realisation.

This Bitcoin indicator is flashing!

And it's only happened 2 times in its history. On both occasions, BTC rallied by over 775% in less than a year...

So, will it happen again?

Let's dive in 👇 Firstly, this indicator was featured in a recent report on volatility by Fidelity Digital Assets.

To understand the indicator itself, we need a bit of a primer on BTC volatility.

It's often misunderstood and as a result - mispriced.

Sell in May & go away...

Over the past 5 years:

- Buying BTC in October & selling in April had 1,449% cumulative returns.

- However, buying in May & selling in September had -29%

Will we see the same this year? Let's dig in 👇 "Sell in May, Go Away" is an old adage from TradFi which generally refers to the effect of seasonality.

It's statistically significant and studies have been done that have shown as much.

I talked about it in a recent vid

What are the forces driving the #Bitcoin price? And how do you assess them to make the most of your trading this cycle?

That was covered in a recent K33 report released to PRO subscribers yesterday.

I picked up some of the most insightful charts from the report

🧵👇 Is retail here yet? Well, traffic stats to top crypto websites and exchanges is definitely trending up.

The period Dec-Feb 2024 is up from the lows in in Aug-Oct 2024.

However, it's still off previous highs in 2022 and considerably off traffic in previous bull markets