Nik Stankovic Profile picture
Serbian, US 10 yrs, China 17 yrs, back in Serbia. Geopolitics, Asian Century. Tech, sim flying.
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May 10, 2024 8 tweets 3 min read
I read this so you don't have to. 👇 As usual FT does not lie. China's GDP growth has slowed down. From 2019-2023, since Xi Jinping last visited Europe, China's GDP grew only 25%. In the five years prior to that (2014-2019) China's GDP 29%. Some blame the pandemic for it, but facts are facts.
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May 5, 2024 4 tweets 3 min read
As a veteran of Beijing Airpocalypse (roughly 2005-2015), so someone who could probably write a master thesis about it (although no formal training in anything related), so I guess here it is.

There are three major contributors to air pollution:

1) Industry
2) Residential heating
3) Automobiles (incl busses and trucks)

Industrial air pollution tends to be less of a problem in the cities, because heavy industry is usually not in the cities. China had some, legacy, when its industry wasn't so hot, then it became a problem in the early 2000s and so it has moved it all out of the cities over the past 10-15 years. Sometimes the weather and wind patterns will bring it in, but this is rare.

Residential heating pollution, which only happens in winter, is worse in places where there is no central heating. For example, in Serbia, in the country side, where people burn wood to heat themselves. In the cities where there is central heating, much more efficient heating plants still pollute, but less. Least air pollution is from those powered by natural gas as opposed to coal.

China is already importing a lot of natural gas from Russia and that will probably double in the next 5-10 years, they just can't build the additional pipes from Russia fast enough. Natural gas is also great for industry: it will lower China's industrial pollution. Natural gas is only slightly more expensive than coal, but burns a lot cleaner. A good chunk of industry can never be electrified: industry often needs to simply burn or heat stuff to extremely high temperatures so solar and wind are not really going to do much for you there. But natural gas will.

Finally, internal combustion engines create a lot of local air pollution, and this is by far the biggest problem in the cities, especially Chinese cities with over 10 million people (17 of those in China). It is also the worst kind of pollution (smallest PM2.5 and PM1 particles).

Electrifying transportation will do even more wonders for air pollution in the cities. For example, China has built extensive and efficient subway systems in all big cities (Qingdao did not have one until 10 years ago), and this makes it so cars are driven less and people take fewer buses.

Note that ALL electrified transportation in China (high speed rail, subways, and ALL electric vehicles, including scooters) today run on renewable sources of energy (hydro, solar, wind).

100% of it. Yes. In fact China adds enough solar+wind capacity ANNUALLY to power ALL of its 330,000,000 cars electrically (only about 20% are now, the rest are still ICE).

It ANNUALLY adds that much solar+wind capacity.

Overall, pollution in China has gotten much better over the past 10-15 years. If you look at the air pollution world charts you will see China is gone from the top of the list, now it's India.

China's air is still worse than in Europe and the US overall, but is likely to catch up with them within a decade. Here is what happened to Beijing's air pollution over the past 10 years. EU standard is 25 µg/m³. Image
May 3, 2024 4 tweets 7 min read
Lots of people chuckling but nobody suggesting an answer, at least in language that normies can understand.

US government doesn't really print money, because printing money is irresponsible. If US government just printed money, it would go straight to inflation, and not 5% but more like 50% or even 500% or even 5000% per year. They wouldn't be able to do it for a very long time.

So what does US government do? It sells bonds (debt). It borrows money. That debt is bought by other countries or by Americans who have extra money. Why do they buy US government debt? Because it is safe and gives interest. It's like putting the money in a a bank or CD only better. Mainly because it is safe. Who would you rather lend money to, US or Serbia?

Take China: China gets a lot of dollars from the US for its exports to the US. Some of it is used to buy American products, but, as we know, China exports more to the US than it imports. So it has extra dollars. What is it going to do with those dollars? It buys US debt, because it gets some interest on it then. Otherwise it would just sit in the bank doing nothing.

So far so good.

But what happens if there are not enough buyers for US government debt AS HAS BEEN HAPPENING REGULARLY SINCE 2008.

Does the US government say "oh shucks, I guess we'll just have to spend less?" Of course not.

Enter the Federal Reserve, or the US Central Bank. They just buy up whatever debt nobody else wants. Where does the Federal Reserve gets the money to buy that debt? They don't. They print it.

You see, it is not the US government that prints money, it is the Federal Reserve that prints money. And they are not part of the US government. Who are they? They are a private bank. What? Yes. Wait. That doesn't make any sense.

Well, that's why this guy is confused.

So what if the Federal Reserve goes bankrupt? Why would they go bankrupt? They can just print money forever.

So this is all one giant scam? Yeah, the biggest scam of all scams. So why do people participate in this scam? Like China? Well, China kind of does the same thing. For one, two China benefits from it. Americans buy lots of stuff from China, that's jobs. But what does China do with the dollars they are just pieces of paper? It goes and buys a gold mine in Serbia with the dollars. Why would Serbia give China a GOLD MINE in exchange for some dollars? Because Serbia can use dollars to buy oil from Saudi Arabia. So what does Saudi Arabia do with the dollars?! It buys US debt, silly.

It's a Ponzi Scheme!

Ok, lots of people will tell you this story, but they will forget to mention one important thing: there are several billion humans going to work every day working for 8 hours or so. Working. Creating value (products and services). And so total value of everything in the world is increasing every day. There are new buildings and roads and chairs and cars and noodles and milk and YouTube videos and mobile phones and computers and people are able to get back to work because someone has cured them from a disease.

This is why it's not really a Ponzi Scheme. Money is circulating and new money is constantly being added, but real value and assets are also constantly being added. There is real input to the scheme, human labor. Just think, there is more STUFF in the world today than 100 years ago. That's why there are also more dollars in the world.

So what is the problem then? The problem is that the world economy, specifically the US economy, is borrowing more than it is going to able to pay back and that it is producing. If you want to borrow money, you have to prove you can pay it back. Some people can borrow more, some less. Elon Musk can borrow more money than me. US can borrow more money than Serbia. But can Elon Musk borrow 10 trillion dollars? No, not even Elon Musk can borrow that much money because he will never make that much money in his entire life, but he can borrow maybe 30 billion dollars.

US is borrowing more than it will be able to pay back and even more than there is extra dollars out there to buy what it demands (that's why Federal Reserve has to "buy" it: print money).

The problem is that printing money (by US government via the Federal Reserve) leads to inflation. High inflation = high interest rates. High interest rates depress economy => producing less => fewer taxes collected => more money printed => higher inflation. It's a downward spiral. Is US government then at least SPENDING less? Oh no, they are increasing spending. The worse it gets, the more money US is spending.

How does this end? It ends in hyperinflation and collapse of the dollar. Nobody will want to buy US debt anymore because US is irresponsible. The trust will be lost. Hell, better to buy Serbia's debt than US debt at that point, or even better China's or Russia's.

So why doesn't the US just stop spending so much? Like all these wars at least. Why doesn't a drug addict just stop taking drugs, don't they see they are destroying their health and will probably one day die of it? It's an addiction. And feeling of entitlement. When you are rich and on top of the world for so long, you cannot just one day say, oh well, I guess I have to tighten my belt a bit and live more modestly. Who me? Elon Musk? Now have to give up my private plane and fly commercial, economy class? There is a Plan B as well: world war. Because when there is a world war, then all debts are forgiven. Like this thing with Russia (frozen assets, etc) x 100. Don't have to pay China back anything. Millions dying, people are just happy to stay alive, frankly. Busy killing each other and trying to figure out what they are going to eat tomorrow.

For US in particular, it's a safe(er) bet. Because of its geography, there is very unlikely to be war in the US itself. Very unlikely someone can mount an invasion of the US. The fighting will be in Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan....... Kind of like WW2. The whole world went up in flames, flattened, except the US. US economy even grew during WW2, a bit like Russian economy is growing now, because of weapons manufacturing. After the war, when there is nothing, US still has a lot of oil and wheat that others will have to buy it from the US because they won't be able to produce anything themselves because they will have nothing. Since they won't have anything to pay with, they will pay with their labor (debt). US will end up owning the whole world again.

There is a slight risk the war goes nuclear, and some nukes are launched US way. That would be a bummer. The other risk is that US and its "allies" lose the conventional war. In that case, US "sphere of influence" will shrink and US will not be able to leech profits out of its domain. In other words, it will actually have to have an economy that is balanced and start making stuff.

But those are all risks worth taking. What else? Just give up and spend less? What would you do?
Apr 8, 2024 6 tweets 3 min read
Went to renew my China Drivers License today at the local DMV, figured I'd take a few photos. Show you how efficient it is in China.

Turned out to be disaster. 👇 Image Showed up, got a number and waited. Not a lot of people. Two people ahead of me.

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Apr 2, 2024 4 tweets 4 min read
Most Europeans do not know China was about 20%-30% of world GDP for much of history except for the last ~150 years. (It is ~18% now, in fact what is happening now with China in the world is just a reversal to mean). If that is true how come we learned so little about China in history in school? Well...

But the big question is what happened ~150 years ago. Opium Wars happened, roughly. So China just lost a war? Losing one war isn't the cause of why China proceeded to experience what the Chinese call "Century of Humiliation". Losing a war can set a nation back 20-50 years, not 150. Why that war even happened and why China lost it was simply a symptom of a much bigger rot in China at the time.

The reason is much deeper. China had completely missed out on the industrial revolution, which is something that the British, first and foremost, but other Europeans as well, "stumbled" upon. And when I say "missed out" I don't mean they did not hear about it because it was in far away in Europe and there was no internet back then. I mean they (the powers that be in China at the time, the Court but also the establishment) REJECTED IT.

It was the "steam power and machines are never going to take off. It's just a fad the barbarians are trying to swindle, pft" attitude. "They say they can make 10 shirts per week from textile with their one machine now. But who would wear those fake cheap rags. How can you ever compare that to our Chinese silk clothing in both style and quality? Peasants. Maybe we can improve our silk tech a bit, but machines? Please."

Books have been written about this so I am not going to belabor about it here. The reason I bring it up is because I see the same thing happening now in much of the West. Technology development is exploding in China, mainly some visible things are in new energy (solar, batteries, EVs).

And what are people saying?

There will be a Century of Humiliation in the West. But the West will only have itself to blame.Image In fact this chart is not to scale. Pay attention to the X axis, years 1-1000 are compressed. But yes.

Dec 16, 2023 8 tweets 4 min read
Speaking of global jurisdictions, US can now criminaly prosecute anyone anywhere in the world who demands a bribe from an American.

Can't wait for some Chinese to be charged under this law and then for China to arrest and prosecute few Americans in China for good measure.

Like the Two Michaels, a stupid reason can always be found. Many individuals and businesses are often in small violations of the law, often unknowingly. When prosecuted frivolously something that would normally be a fine can be extended to a couple of years in prison.

It is no fun being American in China these years. China does not hesitate to reciprocate treatment and we have already seen this. Most Americans in China are here because they like it and do not support the various things the US government does specifically to China. But unfortunately they often take the hit in treatment.
us.transparency.org/news/congress-… us.transparency.org/news/congress-…
Dec 16, 2023 4 tweets 4 min read
You know China has this, in principle.

About a decade ago, China decided that every mobile phone number must be attached to an ID. There are no anonymous SIM cards anymore in China.

When you get a new number with a Telco, they will not just write down your ID number but take a photo of it, and take a photo of you.

To register for any app or web site you have to do the SMS/text verification, which is common (including for X and Western apps). This is done not just to protect from bots, but because it is actually required by law for web sites in China and apps to know the phone numbers of their users.

That way, online activity can in principle be tracked to a phone number which can be tracked to an ID. All web sites of course allow you to have a random anonymous username, so it's not like the whole world has to know who you are. Web sites themselves do not know your true identity (some may require depending on the application, for example if selling plane tickets) but in any case they know your phone number. But the government can always dig in to find out for law enforcement if it wants to.

Web sites in China that refuse to comply with this will be shut down. Anyone who tries to host a web site abroad to get around this regulation, will be blocked in China. It is part of the reason why X, Facebook and others are blocked in China (because they would not cooperate with China's law enforcement).

While everyone thinks this is done to control speech, there are a million other law enforcement reasons to have this: China is full of phone scams and swindlers. There is financial fraud, but other violent crime is also often initiated on-line or through the phones, things like rape and murder. I would say that tracking down political trouble makers on social media is probably the least use of this system. For that, it is much more likely your post would be removed or account suspended by the social media site before it ever got to the point of some sort of law enforcement.

That is how it is done in China. Your phone number is essentially your ID. While this sounds dystopian and authoritarian to Americans, a few things you should understand:

1) Cultures are different. Most people in China actually support this system, in any case a system that allows the government to catch swidlers and all kinds of criminals. I am not sure most support its use to suppress speech (probably have not thought about it), but most think it is a worthwhile price to pay: in other words, most people in China would rather live in a world where there is less crime, financial and violent, even if that means they can't say "Fuck Joe Biden" on-line anonymously.

Americans have a different culture. They would rather like their freedom to say "Fuck Joe Biden" even if that means it's dangerous walk around at night on the streets and someone swindles them in some crypto scam and the police is like "we'll do the best we can".

I am not going to judge, but that's why we have different countries, so they can have different cultures.

2) I question Americans how much actual tracking there is in the US. Obviously the US government has to have ways to survail and track people down for all kinds of crimes. But because they can't use this system, they develop very elaborate other systems, which often end up being more intrusive than this system.

It's kind of like police shootings. Very few Chinese police branches have guns. Why would they need them? Nobody is going to shoot them, nobody has guns. They have batons and pepper sprays. There are of course SWAT teams strategically around town who have guns and rifles and the patrolmen can call them if needed, but this is hardly ever necessary.

Well, not in the US. One thousand people get killed each year by the police in the US. How many completely unnecessarily, probably a good number, even when actual crime is involved (just because someone has broken the law does not mean they should be shot dead). But then if you put yourself in the cop's shoes, it's not easy either. Anyone can have a gun and over 50 police officers get killed every year.

In other words, that freedom to carry a gun has a cost in lives.

But Americans cherish that right to bear arms so they are willing to pay that cost, it's just how it is.

They believe that because they have a couple guns at home the government can't get at them. Or violent criminals.

This is why there is very little violent crime in the US.

Let me end this with "Fuck Joe Biden!"

It's all worth it.
Dec 12, 2023 8 tweets 3 min read
Lucky they live in Hong Kong and not the United States
Image "Seditious conspiracy" you say.... Image
Dec 8, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read
EXCLUSIVE: Leaked conversation from the EU China Summit in Beijing.

EU: You have to buy more from us to balance the trade.
China: Ok sure, what you got? Oh look at those litography machines. We'll take 10,000 of those.
EU: You can't have that.
China: Ok. What else you got?
EU: LV bags. And tea. And BMWs.
China: Everyone in China already has an LV bag. We don't need your Lipton English Breakfast tea. And we make our own cars now, exporting them. You have some natural gas? We need natural gas.
EU: 😠
China: Well that's what we need. What else you have?
EU: Democracy.
China: How does that work?
EU: We come and give you a bunch of lectures, and you pay us.
China: Ok, and then?
EU: Then you will have as good a government as the EU.
Hope you had some fun with this, but the issue is very simple: you can't force someone to by something from you if you have nothing to sell that they need.

And the problem is only getting worse, because even the stuff that China used to buy from the EU--like BMWs or Airbus planes or CT scanners or.... LV bags--it is now starting to make itself.

Someone even made a comment below said in effect "but if we sell them lithography machines then in 10 years they'll make their own". Yes, but the thing is they'll make their own in 10 years anyway. Ok, maybe 15 instead of 10. Just like everything else. The other question is why do they want to buy lithography machines? To make computer chips. So why isn't Europe selling China computer chips? Because it doesn't make them. Taiwan does. Why isn't Europe making computer chips? Why?

The other way to balance the trade is of course to buy less from China. But where would we buy it then? You'd make it yourself.

Wages in the Balkans are now lower than in China. Yeah, but the Balkans doesn't have the supply chains. Start building them then. China didn't have supply chains 30 years ago either.

Oh and you will need some cheap energy for manufacturing. Yeah. 😉Or coal, but you have to dig it out of the ground and it might get a little smoky in Europe again.

Or just fuck it, become Thailand and live off of tourism. But then at least give the Chinese 30 day visa free.

Something's gotta give people. Being white is no longer enough.
Dec 8, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
EU China summit going on in Beijing. Europe talks about decoupling but its trade with China has increased significantly not just in absolute numbers but as a % of total trade. It is flat for China vis-a-vis the EU. Image Decoupling of the US and China is going a little bit better--for China that is. Trade with the US as a % of China's total trade is down 25% in the past 7 years.

For the US, that relationship remained flat as a percent of total trade, although in absolute numbers the trade has grown.

China has made up this difference in trade with others partners like ASEAN and Russia.
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Dec 6, 2023 10 tweets 9 min read
China Tier-2 city public hospital experience 🧵with photos

I've been struggling with some facial pain for a couple of years that 20 doctors in Serbia and two in the US could not figure out what it is (separate story). It's not sinuses, teeth, allergies or infection, or any sort of tumor. Doctors have pretty much given up on me, and the next specialist was to be a psychiatrist (not kidding).

Anyway, I've managed to figure out what it is MYSELF: something to do with the tear duct. Simply because of the location of the pain. There are not a lot of things there, no organs like the heart or kidneys. Just some nasal tissue, tear duct, sinuses. Sinuses it is not. Nasal tissue it is not.

Both the CT scan and the MRI (done for sinuses and neck) show the right tear duct shadowed but the doctors said that doesn't matter and it's not that. Then what is it? Magic? God is punishing me for something?

So last week I saw a private eye clinic here in Qingdao, told them my theory, and they too were a little suspicious, but the doctor said go do another CT, this one is 2 years old. She recommended a nearby public hospital.

So I went today. Looked it up and it was 6 subway stops from my house. It's called Huangdao Central Hospital. Your typical large Chinese public hospital with all kinds of departments.

I left home about 1:30 pm and was at the hospital a little before 2pm.
Image I arrived around 2pm. I have never been at a hospital in Qingdao, but have been in plenty in Beijing and Shanghai. Typically you have to get an electronic card/ID for the hospital (although I think they now do one per city) that keeps your medical history.

Took me a few minutes to figure out how to do that, however, because I am a foreigner I could not do it at one of the kiosks because I don't have a Chinese ID, had to do it manually at the counter. No biggy: name, birthdate, passport number.

At 2:19 pm I got my number to see an eye doctor first (who would then send me to do the CT).

The number (appointment) costs 7 CNY = $1.
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Oct 13, 2023 5 tweets 4 min read
It's raining dollars in China. $80B / month is $2.6B per day is almost $2/day for every Chinese person, child, adult, grandma and expat.

China is currently hiring people to spend $2 billion USD / day as it tries to get rid of all these dollars and convert them into something more tangible: grain, gold, metals, oil, gas, a railroad in Indonesia, a canal in Thailand, ANYTHING. problem is all storages are already full.

Belt & Road burns only about $5B per month and we need to spend $80B.

China used to send most of this back to the US in the form of US Treasuries but that of course is no longer interesting because it will be stolen like Russian and Iranian dollars, and it's still dollars.

So if you have any ideas how to spend $2.6 billion per day send an e-mail to help@gov.cn

Hurry up. In the time it took to write this another $100 million dropped.
For those who don't understand the concept: $80 billion is difference between exports and imports. Chinese companies do not get US dollars (or Euros, other foreign currency). They get paid in Chinese yuan, which they use to pay salaries, their suppliers, etc.

These yuan simply get printed by the Chinese government. They are in principle supposed to print the exact amount $80B but they can also print more or even less depending on what they are trying to do in the domestic economy.

The US dollars (and Euros and other foreign currency) then stays on the bank accounts of the Chinese central bank. It has to keep some cash on hand, but mostly it wants to INVEST that money into something that will bear interest--kind of like you put your money into CDs or even buy stocks.

US Treasuries are the.... I was going to say safest... not anymore... investment, but certainly the simplest. You buy some USTs and you get 1%-5% per year.

But that's become dangerous. So now Chinese government is trying to invest in other things, like metals, oil, and bridges and railroads abroad (BRI), which is just a long term investment.

It spends the dollars today (for example $5 billion to build a railroad in Indonesia) and then Indonesia pays it back over 30 years with some interest. Perhaps not a lot of interest, but at least the Chinese investments are diversifying. It works just like the UST but it's in Indonesia. Or Serbia. Or Brazil. Or Africa. Or Saudi Arabia. Instead of US owing China $5 trillion dollars, US owes it only $1 trillion. The $4 trillion are spread out around the world.

Much safer. Otherwise US would just steal it all and certainly never pay it back.

Besides, when China builds a railroad in Indonesia, half the work is done by Chinese companies, which means income for Chinese companies and salaries for Chinese workers. When it gives money to the US, all the money goes to US weapons manufacturer who make missiles to give to Taiwan or Japan. So that doesn't make much sense either.

Now you understand the BRI too.
Oct 12, 2023 4 tweets 5 min read
It's The Guardian, so idiots, and perhaps not worth the $0.00004 in electricity it's going to write this up and store it on X hard drive.

But for those interested in Chinese law. You can read the article.

The reason why his income was confiscated is because he did not pay taxes on it, hence the "illegal income" charge. China, like every normal country, has a tax code and you have to pay taxes on all income, including foreign income. Many people don't, and enforcement is lax, depends on the amount (1 million RMB is quite a bit actually), but this is true in a lot of countries. If they start investigating you for something else, though, it might be brought up.

The "unauthorized channels" mention is likely simply part of the complaint how he earned the income.

Chinese law says that it is illegal to use VPN to do something on the internet that is illegal in China. If something is illegal in China, you can't just spin up a server abroad and do it over the internet and say, hey, I didn't do it in China I did it abroad!

Usage of the VPN as a co-charge in principle is similar to the the difference between a "robbery" and "robbery with a deadly weapon"--while the "deadly weapon" (gun) itself is not forbidden. But using it in a commission of a crime is an aggravating circumstance.

For the 75,000th time, it is not illegal to use a VPN in China. Your phone can be searched for a VPN if it is suspected you have been committing some crime on the internet or were using the VPN to, for example, organize or participate in an illegal (no permit) protest in China. So if there are mass illegal protests, and police suspect or know that the protests are being organized on outside internet somewhere (as they often are), police might search your phone to see if you have a VPN indicating that you might be one of the organizers and participants. If you have a VPN, the phone will be searched, and if indeed your phone is linked to the whatever channel was used to organize the protest you will be charged with participation in the protest and accessing international network using an "unauthorized channel".

Otherwise nobody will search your phone for VPNs nor will you be charged for using a VPN.

Don't expect analysis or information like this from the nincompoops at The Guardian or other MSM. Being smart, semi-informed or thorough is not a requirement for the job.
Q: "But isn't Twitter illegal in China? So using a VPN to get on Twitter is then illegal?"

A: No, using Twitter is not illegal in China. There is not a single letter of Chinese law anywhere in existence which says that Twitter is illegal in any shape or form.

Twitter is blocked in China because it does not follow Chinese internet regulations to operate in China (because if it wasn't what would be the purpose of those regulations?). Therefore, using a VPN to access Twitter is not illegal.

If however someone were to use Twitter to organize an illegal protest in China then that would be illegal. But it would be equally illegal if it was done on some other web site.

It should be noted that some things which are not illegal in the United States, in particular, are illegal in China. For example, it is illegal to spread rumors in China if it causes public disorder. This has always been the case even before the internet.

Obviously people spread rumors in China all the time. "Did you hear so and so is having an affair with so and so" will not be prosecuted even if false (unless it causes breakup of a marriage and someone wants to sue).

But spreading false rumors that the vaccines are tainted or the price of mangos will go up because of Taiwan sanctions or that everyone who has a VPN will be arrested might actually be against the law if it causes a major public order disturbance in China (for example public protests against it, even though it isn't even true).

And if you do it on Twitter, then you will be additionally charged for doing it using the VPN. In other words, your excuse "but I was just passing what I heard" will have no merit, because you have seemed to went the extra mile to hide your activity from the police.
Oct 8, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
Some angry Jews would like to give Gaza the "Xinjiang experience."

I think that would be wonderful. Starting tomorrow.

Remember: nobody was killed in Xinjiang and there were no refugees. Gaza (pop 2 mil) is 6 times smaller than the population of Uyghurs (12 mil), so you can detain up to 150,000 people over three years, so about about 50,000 people per year.

Xinjiang's GDP/capita doubled in 10 years. We expect to see the same in Gaza. Xinjiang has high-speed rail and an international airport. We expect to see the same in Gaza.

If you fail, you lose the state of Israel? Deal?

Let's go.
Also please raise some salmon in Gaza. If China can do it in landlocked Xinjiang, surely you can do it around Gaza which is on the coast.

Oct 6, 2023 4 tweets 5 min read
You have to know how to argue with people, for example on Xinjiang. There were, by my count, 82,352,955 discussions on Twitter about Xinjiang in the last 7 years. 81 million of them went like this:

- China is genociding Uyghurs.
- No it isn't.
- Yes it is.
- Prove it.
- Here are 75 articles from CNN, BBC, Human Rights Watch and State Department, are they all lying? (they all reference each other)
- They all lie, they are all American imperial propaganda.
- Free Xinjiang. And Tibet. Taiwan is a country.
- Here is a video of Uyghurs in Urumqi living normal lives.
- That's a CCP propaganda account.

Guys don't do that. It's a waste of time and disk space on X's servers (Musk is trying to make X profitable, help him by rationing bandwidth and disk space).

This is what you do and the discussion ends very quickly:

On Xinjiang: "-cide" suffix in English means "kill". How many Uyghurs did China kill? How many refugees were there?

On Social Credit: give me one documented example of something someone did in China and how they were later not allowed to do something else. If they mention travel ban, that's a court judgment to pay something, often back wages. It exists in the West, except instead of a travel ban, they confiscate your house.

In this case, in addition, this Steven guy said "he was not allowed to practice Christianity when he lived in China". So I asked him to tell us how he practiced Christianity and what happened.

He ran away, never answered. It should be a simple answer, right. I did this and this bad thing happened. Police told me I would be arrested and deported. It happened to him personally. Nope. Ran away. But continued to argue with some other people.... by sending them on a wild goose chase with 85 different articles from BBC, CNN, New York Times, Human Rights Watch, etc.

Just ask them very simple, specific questions. They will not be able to answer because they have not internalized or studied any of the issues. They heard on TV "Communist China is genociding Uyghurs" and then they google it and send you links from CNN which are a transcript of that same thing. They have no idea what they are talking about.

The strategy is basically this: when someone makes a claim X, let's assume they are right (genocide). But if they are right (if there is genocide) there would either be dead people or there would be refugees. So tell me how many dead people and how many refugees.

If there is social credit then surely you would be able to give me hundreds of examples of how it specifically works. You cross the street on red, and you cannot get surgery. Give me an example, and of course provide a reference, some Chinese complaining about it because it happened to them.

They will disappear faster than the former Chinese foreign minister from public life.
If you look at the articles in US and European MSM about these issues you will see that they are very generic.

They always quote some authority who said it. So, headline: "China is genociding Uyghurs", text: "UN has expressed concern about actions of Chinese government in Xinjiang. Andrian Zenc said up to 1 million people may have been detained. Mike Pompeo and State Department have said it amounts to genocide. [One witness] has said she has not heard from her father in 3 months."

That's it. That's the gist. There is literally nothing there except the claim of 1 million detentions which because they cover a 3 year period are no larger than what happens in New York City. There is nothing there.

Then that articles gets retold in The New York Times, and then someone writes an opinion piece in The Guardian how we are seeing genocide again in the 21st century.

Then a thousand other publications quote NYT, The Guardian and CNN and summarize their stories. And suddenly "everyone is talking about it" and "everyone knows it".

How many dead people and how many refugees? What? How many dead people and how many refugees in this genocide of yours?

Crickets.

I can even see them scrambling on their keyboards googling.
Oct 1, 2023 4 tweets 4 min read
$20 worth of groceries, Tier-2 city China. Pears, mandarines, kimchi, peanuts, oil, tomatoes, baozi, tofu, kugua, cucumber, some seeds not sure what they are.. a few pounds of each I think I didn't forget anything.

No meat, this is a vegan house, I get my meat outside.

Farmers market.



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Our family of three monthly food budget is 5000 Chinese yuan per month which is $685 USD or less than $250 / person per month, so that is less than $10 / day per person.

It breaks down like this:

3000 CNY / $411 USD daily food groceries. This includes 300 CNY we pay for "school lunch". Note this includes no meat, and no alcohol. Wife is vegan. It does include fruit: mandarines, bananas, watermelons, whatever seasonal.

1000 CNY is my extras, this is: coffee (not Starbucks, I buy grounds), wine, beer, and some imports like cheese, olive oil, and the like.

1000 CNY is eating out. This is mostly me = meat, but it also includes some family dining out dinners once or twice a month. None of it fancy, but you still pay a bit of a restaurant premium.
Sep 24, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read
On the news that a Chinese university has taken off English for entrance exams, I have heard this will be phased throughout the Chinese educational system: English will not be a factor in entrance criteria. It does not mean it will not be taught.

Its relative importance is simply being downgraded. I don't see a problem with this for China. Can someone convince me otherwise?

There will obviously always be Chinese who will major in English, study abroad, or otherwise learn good English, so China will always be able to "talk to the world". I don't see a reason why 100% of Chinese children should stress out over English, and some not be accepted to study metalurgy at Hohot Normal University because their English score was a bit lower than their peers.

"But science." First of all, not everyone reads scientific papers beyond translated textbooks. Second of all, more science is being written in Chinese, have you not read the news? Indeed, scientists-to-be around the world are well advised to start learning Chinese. It doesn't mean Chinese should be on entrance exams everywhere for everyone. It doesn't mean someone who wants to study history at Sorbonne should be tested on their Chinese fluency. Or someone who wants to be a physical therapist in Poland.

You have to get this supremacist idea out of your head that there is a Westerner in every Chinese waiting to come out and that your mission on this Earth is to make it happen. And that anyone (eg "CCP") who is trying to prevent it is violating human rights.

Once you do this, your life will become a lot better and enjoyable, trust me. Chinese will do just fine without your constant worry that they might fall behind. People should also remember that we literally already have (in 2023) simultaneous AI translation of speech, much less text.

Should people stop learning foreign languages? No, everyone should study some foreign language because it is a window into another world, a different worldview, different from yours and it will help you to understand that there can be different equally true and good perspectives on the world.

It doesn't mean a foreign language should be on the entrance exams for high schools and colleges for 100% of the students. Don't worry, China will still always have more fluent English speakers than United Kingdom.
Jan 11, 2023 8 tweets 3 min read
@baronitaigas I understand China very well, 15 years there. There is 0 credence to these rumors. China will not show a finger to US/EU and go hub Russia. It's just not what China does, they don't get that emotional first, second their economy is too integrated. No need for that anyway. @baronitaigas But China is not dumb. They saw what the West did to Russia (sanctions) and KNOWS that and perhaps worse is coming for China sooner or later. China NEEDS Russia, also diplomatically, perhaps even militarily. This is strategic.