There are incidences that leave mark on your life.

This incidence is of 90s when huge upside in steel came. A young family friend with a good family background decided to set up a steel plant. It was such times that attracts everyone investors and entrepreneurs both alike. The start was great and end very sad. They were in the wholesale business of सरिया steel roads in Loha Bazaar of Indore. Very well to do family. The elder son in his 30s thought of taking advantage of steel teji. There were many who were doing similar things around. Everything appeared positive and rosy.

I hear so many people running behind EV bandwagon. I see it no different from what happened with "smart education" theme of late 2000.

Here are 5 case studies from the USA of EV cos filing bankruptcies. In India they don't file bankruptcies, they simply vanish in thin air. June 15, 2022
Electric Last Mile Solutions Inc. filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in Delaware, making it the first of the electric-vehicle startups that merged with special purpose acquisition companies to go out of business amid the recent market slump.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Scary situation in IT recruitment. The kind of salary hikes happening with multiple offers is not heard of before. Met/spoke to Project Managers, Recruiters, CEOs this weekend.
One ex a 7yr exp dtop engg was getting 11Lac now got an offer of 35Lac from MNC IT services co.
Impact? In another case, one eng was drawing 5Lac given an offer of 11Lac+10%bonus, just 2days before joining he said he has an offer of 18Lac. His offer revised to 15+10%bonus with a promise to stability. He called after 3 days, he has another offer of 23Lac.

A small story.

Recall an interaction 5yrs back with my Marwadi Kirana-wala (grocery shop owner). This is 50+yr old shop, 80% wholesale supplying to hotels/restaurants. Had good cash flow, used to invest mostly in properties/land.

1/n Though not formally educated, he is very sharp, speaks "English" and knows his Biz. I told him to consider stks/MFs too. He laughed at me, said it is satta bazaar and narrated the examples of few of his known people who lost.
2/n

How different market participants react when they got this book "How to solve 50% of your problems?"

- Momentum traders: will buy more than 2 books to solve more than 100% problems
- Fundamental analyst: will buy 1 book and read it two times to solve 100% of the problems

1/n -Technical analyst: 50% is a resistance level and 100% a support level
- Growth investor: will buy only if problems growing more than 25% for 3 years
- Value investor: will buy if no one is able to solve their problems

2/n

Some random observations from the ARs and Concalls

The Hotel ind is struggling to survive due to the ongoing pandemic. The best comes when there is a crisis at the door. Observing several initiatives and measures by the cos which would have never been considered otherwise.
1/n Just to sight few examples from the AR of FY'21 of a hotel major (these are common across other players too). They initiated several measures both at cost and revenue front.
2/n

This thread reminds me 90s when one such huge upside in steel came. A young family friend with a good family background decided to set up a steel plant. It was such times that attracts everyone investors and entrepreneurs both alike. The start was great and end very sad.

1/n

https://twitter.com/JstInvestments/status/1382178725882581001

They were in the wholesale business of सरिया steel roads in Loha Bazaar of Indore. Very well to do family. The elder son in his 30s thought of taking advantage of steel teji. There were many who were doing similar things around. Everything appeared positive and rosy.

2/n

KNR Constructions is one of the truly long term holdings for me where I completed 10yrs from my first purchase. It tested patience multiple times. It feels good to hold something that has gone 50X fm the lows that I bought once (adjusted for split and dividends). I was lucky.
1/n It was not all hunky-dory. When I bought it 1st time at ard 100 (Rs 20 after adjusting 5:1) I was told:
1) it is a Hyd co
2) does not trade 250 shares in a day
3) infra co days are over
4) infra cos don't make money, they are just cash guzzlers (they showed some charts too)
2/n

The game of low float. It is an old trick but some of the players have mastered this. Let's understand how it is played and what is the risk and lesson for us?

The game starts with identifying a good company with a low float. What is a good company and what is a low float?
1/n A good company: clean balance sheet, growth of 20%+ in topline and bottom line, good cash flow, low or no debt. They may or may not have any "moat" to support the valuations but how does it matter?
2/n

I will never forget this chart and price even after more than 20 years. I was in my native place it was in Feb 2000. We were at our broker's office. Somone ordered shares worth a few crores on phone at around Rs350 per share. The prices were soaring everday.

1/n Initially, I thought it must be a day trade. but it was not. also, you look at such trade with amazement. you make your false judgement that the investor must be someone with a great understanding of the business as he has so much money to invest.

2/n

Yesterday did an analysis of 10 Large Cap MFs.

https://twitter.com/niteen_india/status/1299710958881783814

Someone said Mid Caps perform better. Hmmm

Here is t summary of 10 MFs from Mid Cap sector based on AUMs.

Btw, I saw large caps like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank in top holdings... hmm MidCap

Enjoy...

1/n Total AUM of 10 these MFs: 58,359Crs (AUM: Asset Under Management, size of the funds)
Top 25 stocks: Ranging from ~60-80% holding (Average 66%)

2/n

Here is the summary of 10 Mutual Funds from the large-cap sector based on their AUMs.

Size (XXXL and expanding...)
Total AUM: 1,35,217Crs (AUM: Asset Under Management, size of the funds)
Top 25 stocks: Ranging from 70-90% holding
1/n Returns (better not to talk)
against S&P BSE 100

1 yr: 8 underperformed, 2 could barely outperform. 1 had a negative return.
3 yr: Again only 2 could outperform. Rest were handsomely beaten down by the Index.
5 yr: Again only 2 could outperform.
7 yr: 7 could outperform
2/n

Daughter writing a name in Hindi and English at the same time with both the hands together. Watch till last and imagine the possibilities 🙂 She is 10 years. I had done writing with both the hands during my high school days. But never did with both the hands together. Now teaching kids and kids are generally quick learners. Lockdown has its benefits too. 🙂 Nothing formal. It is all informal teaching. Khel khel me.

When I tweeted and kept a WhatsApp status to avoid Chinese products, a gyani friend questioned me which mobile phone you are using. I know his intentions are always "noble". So my long answer to his short question is here: If a product is
-completely imported and mfged only in China and no alternative (will consciously avoid and if life not possible then only will consider)
-completely imported and mfged in other countries too

Hopefully, this time is different & guilty are punished. I shiver with fear at the very thought of gas tragedy. My family was in Bhopal and I was a teenager. We were lucky to survive as we were on the other side of Bhopal. But 1000's others not and justice never delivered, never.

https://twitter.com/MoneylifeIndia/status/1258667244449603584

We lived in constant fear for several wks. There used to be sudden rumours of the gas leakage. I cud see thousands of men-women-children madly running for cover. My family decided to leave too but then mother resisted. She said worst has happened. She is always right, till date.

India produces 70% of the global requirement of HCQ Hydroquinone currently also used in Corona. Eg just one company IPCA produces 10 crore tablets in a month. Banning exports was not required, we can easily supply to the globe

People cheering gold rally as a piece of evidence that gold remains the most sought after investment instruments during the crises period and has to rally. Wrong fallacy. Gold did not give returns in the last 8-9 years. In fact, Gold was down almost 45% from the peak in 2011.

It doesn't mean that there were no crises during this period. There were multiple global and national crises witnessed during this period.

If inflation is assumed 7% then the monthly expenses will double every 10 years. Assuming you are maintaining the same lifestyle.

If it is 8% then it will double in 9 years.
If it is 9% then it will double in 8 years. Impact of just 7% inflation on monthly expenses, doubling every 10 years
Age - Monthly expenses
30 years - 1Lac per mth
40 years - 2Lac per mth
50 years - 4Lac per mth
60 years - 8Lac per mth
70 years - 16Lac per mth
80 years - 32Lac per mth
90 years - 64Lac per mth

I used to hold two infra cos and was tracking from their listing sometime in 2009. I was of t view that they should survive post 2009 correction in infra cos and will give decent returns in long run.

I wrote abt them on my blog too when regulatory norms permitted. Keeping every valuation parameter aside, first co used to be at 150-200 and second at 100-130. This difference continued for a very long time.

Both had excellent execution track record. In fact, the first one enhanced capabilities in new areas and became even stronger.

Great session by @rameshmashelkar sir on latest his book Leapfrogging to Pole-vaulting. Many case studies on innovation, going beyond small reactive thinking. Puneites have amazing hunger for knowledge. Houseful session.
kul_manish thanks for inviting.

amazon.in/dp/0670089958/… @rameshmashelkar He sighted several examples from the book.

One of the case studies is of Tata Nano. It had 70+ patents but product still failed as the focus got shifted to cheap car. The sales and marketing angle diluted everything of an aspiration product.

4 types of people/investors (Identify the one in you)

Sharu Rangnekar, one of the best Indian management gurus I read. He wrote a classic: In the Wonderland of Indian Managers. It was first published in 1973. In this book, common problems and their solutions have been described in his characteristic style which is delightfully complemented by R K Laxman’s inimitable cartoons. He quoted Vinoba Bhave. Vinoba Bhave said there are only 4 types of people in this world.