This is a bad stat for Arsenal. But not for obvious reasons. Let me explain why.

All of this is tied to the perspective that pressing, alongside all out-of-possession detail, is the domain of smaller, weaker teams.

https://twitter.com/WhoScored/status/1780988407789011391?t=P3uCh-qMmet4Al9WQOHyRQ&s=19

If you have poorly to averagely talented players, the best way to get the most out of them is to raise the level of the out-of-possession detail.

Things like physical capacity, intensity, compactness, pressing, shapes & blocks.

Luton, Brentford, Barnsley, Toulese, Getafe etc

4 Saka run in-behind opportunities against Villa

—Ode pass forces him to change body shape, sends him outside rather than inside
—Ode pass is too early again, destroys any opportunity of attacking inside, Saka's run/shape/destination changes
—Pass not played
—Pass near perfect





For me, this illustrates how much Odegaard quietly limits Saka's potential without anyone suspecting a thing.

Saka is a magician type. His brain is too quick, too adaptable for opponents. Whatever a situation optimally requires (a run, a pass, a cross, a dribble) Saka is there.

When I talk about using all of the squad, it is for days like this. When I talk about recruiting a LCM and a Saliba alternative it is so we can have squad depth and rotate our most important players for days like this.

Mikel is overly conservative with his squad usage/selection. I understand the place of getting players physically fit and in rhythm and the point of playing your best players, but some games require different players.

Even if these players are not fully in rhythm, they have an opportunity to show something on the pitch.

The first demands for an Arsenal CF is how they can help us dominate

—In the penalty box against lowblocks.

—In transitions against the best sides.

These demands are why Haaland, Osimhen & Nunez qualify as elite, why Toney is so attractive & why Havertz has so much potential. Read through to see the qualities necessary to dominate each requirement.

https://twitter.com/nonewthing/status/1687081441903935489?t=Fa27GreE2wl9GnVXoErRHg&s=19

I'm really annoyed by the stats websites who push “Chances created”, “Key passes”, “Big chances created” as creative metrics to an ignorant Twitter crowd that consume it all.

None of these metrics capture real creativity. They only capture good decision-making in the final 3rd. A side pass for a crowded shot that flies out the stadium is a “key pass” or “chance created”.

Far as I know, there are only two mainstream, public passing metrics that really matter

“Expected xG assisted”
“Progressive passes”

Neither are perfect but they are much better.

When looking at players, you need to be sure that they don't need to totally reinvent themselves as players when they move to a higher level.

Some are talented enough to do it, mind you, but it's a massive risk. Nunez at Liverpool is still mostly the same guy as Nunez at Benfica

Haaland at Salzburg and Dortmund is still mostly the same guy as he is at City right now.

Transfers where a player has to completely reinvent who he is have such large risks of failure. Kalvin Phillips is an example of this.

In this underrated thread, I identified De Zerbi's obsessive focus on a way of playing as potentially problematic without the right material.

His issues would largely disappear in an elite environment where he has access to quality that emphasizes and protects his style.

https://twitter.com/nonewthing/status/1578806331343265792

I don't think De Zerbi is the best coach in the world. But he's an elite coach that's a particular fit for particular environments.

Elite clubs that need elite in-possession models (Liverpool less so, Barcelona more so), maximization of individual talent (Chelsea, Barca)

If only Erik Ten Hag had half the balls De Zerbi does.

People want De Zerbi to be a coward, to compromise on his beliefs for the excuse of “winning”.

His mandate at Brighton is to play good football & develop the young assets the club has. Your expectations don't matter. Show me one game in which Mikel Arteta has compromised the game model he started the season with.

Even when we lost Saliba and had to play City at the Etihad, we still went with a M2M press with our balls out and got badly beaten for it.

Was Mikel Arteta naive?

Billy has a good piece out that covers why Arsenal have struggle with midblocks, why we struggled against Porto and how we might fix this at the Emirates.

It's a really good piece that covers the fundamentals. But one key aspect was missing.

A Thread/

billycarpenter.substack.com/p/how-to-make-… Billy talks about creating and finding little gaps in the middle while referencing Guardiola and the need to play through the middle.

Against compact schemes, like with Arsenal or Porto in this case, it's a bit of a fallacy. The very design of those schemes are to block that.

Arsenal have built a multifunctional attack makeup quietly. Almost all winger profiles at the club.

—Saka (Magician)
—Martinelli (Runner)
—Jesus (Breaker)

This is why they can buy any type of CF and it works. Jesus' injury issues are troubling. And breaker profiles can be rare to obtain on the market once proven at a high level.

—Doku
—Barcola
—Williams

Notice how two of the above have been snatched up before they hit 22. It is pertinent for the club to decide if we can continue to

I really think we need to raise money for deals this summer and these are the guys I love so much but I'm willing to let go to raise money

—Reiss
—Eddie
—Trossard
—Partey
—Sambi
—Tierney
—Ramsdale

I'm also willing to consider selling at a good price

—Tomiyasu
—Zinchenko Some of these are because of resale value and contract control.

Trossard for instance is a G/A magnet but he's approaching post-peak years, is running down his short contract, will demand a sizable renewal and is in peak sale form right now. Also potential to decline physically.

In football, when a lesser team plays a stronger team, the lesser team basically has to make the game as neutral as possible. Because if there are barely any shots in the game for either side and there are 1 million fouls, who do you think it favours? City or Burnley? When both teams are neutralized in that way, fluke goals can happen. And they can happen for either team. But this is a risk that the lesser team is willing to take. Because do you want to play a 1 billion pound team or throw a coin flip?

They will take the coin flip 🙃.

Odegaard pretty much represents how Arsenal attack in the moment.

Lots of movements/rotations, playing together in close proximity, pausa and 1v1 manipulation, arriving into the box with numbers.

It's good, really good, but I want us to play the way Saka plays. Dominant in all situations, highly physical and resistant to contact, highly cerebral to manage moments/situations/games/themselves, doesn't need to move too much to dominate, pausa in every action, manipulating 1v1 and explosive capacity as well, fixated on marginal improvement

I still expect a fall-off for Liverpool and I see their challenge as the normal form of the 3rd best team.

They've had the best attack as expected but the gap between their defensive performance (which is rest of the league level) and the actual results is a bit of a mirage.

https://twitter.com/Seneziz/status/1759830219001639006

The underlying metrics show a significant gap between Arsenal and Liverpool so far in the league (on the side, this difference not showing in actual points is largely due to some bad luck in front of goal for Arsenal) but not between them and Manchester City.

Why?

If someone says, “Phil is a good player ”, it's different from when someone says, “Phil has these specific capacities that can be used in these particular ways for these particular teams, setups & level of play.”

The latter is the real deal in scouting & recruitment. Too often, people make the mistake of thinking it's about speaking first or discovering a player. In certain contexts and circumstances, it can be important (such as operating in very obscure markets and competitions) but not more so than applicability.

People may not know it but the head to heads are key in this title race.

City are weaker than they appear because of the marginal qualitative weakness of their defenders when handling top players & athletes: Rodri, Dias, Ake vs Rice, Saliba, Gabriel. Pep tries his best to hide it but it's there. The problem here especially is that Arsenal are very good at unmasking deficiencies (best M2M press in the game forces away control and Pep will need his most athletic carriers to break it/long ball to Haaland unlikely to work well.)

One thing I find unique about public analysis is how much it refuses to focus on/acknowledge first order effects such as Arsenal simply not having many great IP options available for significant periods through the season.

For example, how well have City done without Rodri?

https://twitter.com/BundesAbel/status/1750143260234862891

—Zinchenko has been able to play only 60% of all available minutes for Arsenal. Subbed off again against Liverpool.

—Partey has played 11% of available minutes.

—Jorginho has been carrying an injury for months.

I have to say it because of my recent, separate discourses on Trent and Konaté.

Duels are important, but not as important as you think they are—which underscores my point about how TAA's weakness in them is over-weighted and Konaté's strength in them is also over—weighted. However, duels in certain zones of the pitch jump in value.

If you win a duel in central areas and close to your goal, you have done a very very important thing. And if you lose, it swings the other way.

Penalty box area and zone 14 duels/recoveries are of big value.

While it's a crucial part of the game you can't do without, duels are only like 35% of what's necessary to defend.

Ibrahima Konaté ‘won all his duels’ against Vinicius in the UCL final, yet Vinicius scored the decisive goal to win it for Real Madrid.

How come?

[A THREAD/] If you are a top, top athlete as a defender in a top European league, you are always likely going to dominate your duels against the opposition.

Yet some of the best and most decorated defenders in history weren't half as good as Konaté at duels. Pique, Ramos, Bonucci, etc.

Ivan Toney is effective in all phases of play.

—Buildup play (he's a clean, calm technician who's robust against contact)

—Transition Outlet (an unbelievable passer like Harry Kane)

—Box dominator (physicality and body span to dominate half chances in packed boxes) On top of that, he's got ballstriking to finish above expectations! And is one of the best headers of a ball out there.

He's literally a Harry Kane lite player.

This was why he was my No. 1 recommendation to Arsenal before we bought Gabriel Jesus. He was extremely undervalued.

Ousmane Diomandé has a lean and compact body type, but with a large, dynamic and extensible range of motion.

He possesses extreme standing force and can extend that force to a big area without leaving a spot.

This is the same physical profile that belongs to Eduardo Camavinga





Picture a spinning but stationary coin.

The range of motion is big and very fluid, and the coin itself is compact and lean but possesses plenty of density and strength.

This is representative of the same physical profile as Eduardo Camavinga and Ousmane Diomandé.