It's that special time of year when the annual inspection report on the shortcomings of the German armed forces comes out.

I read all 171 pages so you don't have to.

So: come with me / and we'll be / in a world of Bundeswehr frustration ...

🧵(1/x) First, the background: every year the MP tasked with keeping an eye on the Bundeswehr – currently @EvaHoegl – visits German military facilities all over the world and chats to the troops about everything that’s bugging them, from cruddy gym equipment to bullying superiors. (2/x)

New: Olaf Scholz has suggested that Europe should ultimately go back to the pre-war "peace order" with Russia if Putin renounces aggression against neighbouring states.

These appear to be his most explicit remarks on the subject to date.

My write-up: thetimes.co.uk/article/olaf-s… Scholz told the Berlin Security Conference yesterday that there was a "willingness" to resolve "all questions of common security": "We can come back to a peace order that worked and make it safe again if there is a willingness in Russia to go back to this peace order."

I've just finished an essay on Germany's China policy and Scholz's imminent trip to Beijing (out later today) and I'm repeatedly struck by the sheer scale of the scepticism towards China among the German public and business world - short thread /1 This is from the @gmfus Transatlantic Trends report, published at the end of September - suggests the German public is just about as wary of China as any of the other 14 countries they surveyed, including UK and even Sweden and Lithuania (!) /2

First article in a short series from Latvia: I spoke to President @valstsgriba and defence minister @Pabriks about how the West can better support Ukraine and how the power dynamics in Europe have shifted since the invasion. /1

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1566009271569059840

- Both said NATO should give Ukraine every kind of weapon it needs, up to and including modern western battle tanks and combat jets.
- @Pabriks said Europe's caution and exaggerated fear of a Russian nuclear strike were emboldening Putin. /2

@larsklingbeil, co-leader of the SPD, made quite a decent speech on 🇩🇪 foreign policy at @FESonline today, finally putting a bit of flesh on the bones of the Zeitenwende.
Worth reading the whole thing but here's a🧵setting out the most important points: /1 1. 🇩🇪 needs to "self-critically" examine why it was caught napping by the invasion of Ukraine. Klingbeil says some 🇱🇹 colleagues told him they were worried about a 🇷🇺 attack: "My first reflex was: Nonsense, Putin won't do that. But exactly this reflex was the mistake." /2

In Terry Pratchett’s Discworld book Carpe Jugulum, the hilly kingdom of Lancre is taken over by vampires, who feed on Granny Weatherwax, the most powerful of the country’s witches. What has this got to do with Germany’s Russia policy? A 🧵(warning: contains Discworld spoilers) /1 The vampires try to turn Granny Weatherwax into one of their own. But something odd happens: the vampires develop an irresistible hunger for sweet tea and biscuits instead of blood. Through sheer mental strength GW has reversed the direction of influence. /2

Scoop: I've read the private memoir of Wilhelm, Prince of Prussia - son of Kaiser Wilhelm II and one of the most intriguing and controversial actors involved in the rise of the Third Reich. A short(ish)🧵 on what I found out: /1 thetimes.co.uk/article/did-ge… First, a bit of context: Kaiser Wilhelm II abdicated and went into exile in the Netherlands at the end of WW1, ushering in the Weimar republic. Wilhelm, his son and heir, returned to Germany in 1923, much to his father’s distaste. /2

The Germany energy ministry has just urged every household and business in the country to use as little gas as possible ahead of a Kremlin deadline for EU firms to pay their bills in rubles by tomorrow. /1 There is no sign that Germany will comply with Putin's ultimatum, even though Russia has explicitly said it will turn off the taps unless Gazprom and other state-owned energy companies receive payment in rubles. /2

If you want to understand the mess German energy policy is in right now as the country tries to unwind years’ worth of entanglements with Russia, look no further than the astonishing story of this refinery in Schwedt, which supplies ~95% of Berlin’s oil products. A short 🧵. /1 Since the 1960s the Druzhba (“Friendship”) pipeline has carried oil from fields in Tatarstan to the PCK refinery, just on the German side of the border with Poland. Today it provides (I think) about a third of Germany’s total crude imports. /2

Couple of striking developments in 🇩🇪 energy policy today:
1. The coalition has just announced a pretty chunky household relief package including
- €300 income tax rebate for every resident
- 90 days of unlimited public transport for €9/month
- €100 per child for families /1 - €200 for welfare recipients
- 90-day fuel tax cut knocking €0.30 off 1L of petrol and €0.14 off 1L of diesel
2. Strategic energy partnership with Israel, the 2nd in a week after a similar deal with Qatar. Details are vague but big element is diversification of gas supply /2

Zelensky is greeted with a standing ovation from the German MPs, with every parliamentarian on their feet - even the AfD group, by the look of it.

https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1504365869056630785

Katrin Göring-Eckardt, Bundestag vice-president: "We see you. Your country has chosen democracy and that is exactly what Putin fears. He’s trying to cancel you’re existence but in this he has already failed … You are showing every day how strong your will to liberty is."

Is Germany really going through a Zeitenwende in its defence policy? I’m not so sure. A thread. As always, I’m genuinely glad to be corrected on stuff I’ve misunderstood, and to hear other people’s thoughts. /1 The background: Germany’s armed forces, the Bundeswehr, have had a terrible press for years. This is largely because of their patchy record on equipment and procurement: soldiers in the Baltic winter without warm clothing, tanks with no gun barrels, leaky rockets etc. /2

Germany has just said it will effectively block the approval of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines from Russia. Short thread on Scholz's press conference this morning:
1. On Putin's recognition of DNR & LNR: Scholz called it a “unilateral, incomprehensible and unjust action” /1 Said it violated "fundamental principles" that have underpinned the global order since the 1970s: “These are very difficult days ... for Europe. Nearly 80 years after the end of WW2 [another] war is looming in the east of Europe. It is our duty to prevent such a catastrophe.” /2

With serendipitous timing, the German federal prosecutor's office has just published an indictment accusing a businessman in Saxony of selling chemical weapons precursors to a front company for a Russian intelligence service /1 generalbundesanwalt.de/SharedDocs/Pre… The man, identified only as Alexander S, was arrested in May but the charge sheet has just come to light. He is alleged to have repeatedly violated the 2014 sanctions on Russia by selling his clients dual-use goods with a total value of €1 million since 2017 /2

This is a fascinating @Verfassungsblog post on the German principle of not sending weaponry to "conflict zones". Argues a) that this principle has been inconsistently applied in the past (arms exports toAfghanistan, Peshmerga etc) and b) that arming ... verfassungsblog.de/keine-waffenli… @Verfassungsblog ... a weaker nation threatened with invasion could reduce the risk of war rather than exacerbating it. What I'd add here is that the current German govt's coalition treaty does *not* explicitly preclude sending armaments to crisis zones. All it promises is a "restrictive" ...

How much of the brutal criticism of Germany’s positions on the Ukraine crisis is really justified? I’ve written an essay setting out Berlin’s thinking and the reasons why some of its allies are so upset. Short thread: /1 thetimes.co.uk/article/europe… I recommend reading the article (obviously) but here’s the brief TL;DR, based on conversations with a range of officials, diplomats and MPs.

There have been three main lines of criticism: undermining sanctions, refusing to arm Ukraine, and generally mixed messaging. /2

Annalena Baerbock's speech to the Bundestag today was the best summary of the German govt's thinking on Ukraine that I've seen anyone make in public, and is worth reading in full auswaertiges-amt.de/de/newsroom/-/… A few observations /1 1. She says Germany & its allies are working on a "strong package of sanctions" and Nord Stream 2 is part of the "whole bandwidth of responses that are available to us". That may not satisfy NATO allies who want a more explicit commitment to put NS2 on the list. /2

Update on Germany's suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine: the health ministry has just published a Q&A setting out its reasoning bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/coronavirus/fa…
A few details are worth highlighting: /1 1. The decision was prompted by three extra reports of a rare cerebral blood-clotting disorder, CVST, since Friday, making a total of six or seven (the seventh diagnosis is apparently a little ambiguous). Three of the patients have died. /2

I’ve been thinking about this a bit and here’s the best answer I can come up with from a European perspective: AZ’s strange interim phase 3 clinical trial data sent it into a bit of a vicious PR circle /1

https://twitter.com/VictoriaPeckham/status/1371549098185273344

First you had the low headline efficacy rate (compared to Pfizer), then the confusion over dosing, then the bizarre attempt to combine the efficacy rates for the two dosing schedules, then the junk interim efficacy data for over-65s - all of that increased the scrutiny /2

Awful lot of criticism on here of Germany's decision to suspend the use of AstraZeneca. I'm not going to add to it because I'm not an epidemiologist. But some numbers may be useful context for the government's reasoning: /1 The German government's vaccines agency, the Paul Ehrlich Institute, said it had suddenly (since Thurs) noticed a "striking accumulation" of cases of a rare kind of blood clot on the brain, cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) in people who'd just had the vaccine. /2

There is a fascinating debate within the German Green party about nuclear weapons and defence spending, which could have substantial implications for Germany’s future foreign policy. A short thread explaining what’s going on and why I think it matters. /1 The Greens have strong pacifist roots and remain officially committed to a Europe free of nuclear weapons – which would mean removing the US nuclear bombs from Büchel. They also oppose raising the defence budget to the Nato target of 2% of GDP. gruene-bundestag.de/themen/sicherh… /2