There are lots of elections takes out there and I think it’s important to recognize that our understanding will change as we get more detailed precinct and turnout data, but a couple of high level thoughts (1/n) This was a broad based shellacking. Using NYT needle to project final counts, it looks like the national popular vote moved by 6 points against Dems. That’s massive. BUT campaign effects are real: the shift in battlegrounds was closer to 3 points.

My wife Christina Patterson’s new paper (w/ her excellent co-authors @JADHazell @ChenLian92 @jptguerreiro) is now out at @nberpubs, so I’m excited to share more about what I (biased though I am) think is a very nice insight on the nature of inflation and why people hate it (1/n) Before I go on, the full paper is here (please do read and cite!) – but I wanted to share my favorite parts christinahydepatterson.com/_files/ugd/322…

Since everyone is watching the Fed these days, I wanted to tweet out a paper by Christina Patterson (full disclosure: my wife!), John Coglianese, and Maria Olsson (PCO) that provides new important evidence that monetary policy (really) matters! (1/n)

Link christinahydepatterson.com/_files/ugd/322…
The paper is motivated by a (somewhat shocking, IMO!) point from Emi Nakamura and @JonSteinsson JEP article (). Most economists use narrative arguments for monetary policy, not modern identification. pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10…

One of my favorite papers* just got a new draft, so I thought it would be a great time to do a thread about it! Tldr: the fact that recessions hurt younger, poorer workers more means that they are worse for all of us

*my wife’s JMP Going back to Keynes, macroeconomists have cared about the aggregate marginal propensity to consume: if you add a $ to economy, how much does that $ propagate further (I spend 50% of the $ buying from you, you spend 50% of that 50%, etc.)

The darkest colored states here are averaging 100+ new _diagnosed_ COVID cases per 100k population per day -- meaning that 1%+ of the state population has an active (diagnosed!) COVID case currently. What's going to happen when people gather for Thanksgiving? (the is the source if anyone wants to look: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…

And my assumption is that COVID cases last for about 10 days, though I think that's on the short end. So 100*10= 1000, 1000/100000 = 1%)