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Peter Ganong Profile picture
Peter Ganong
@p_ganong
econ prof @Harrispolicy
Jul 25, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
. @bsprungkeyser presents on the revenue and costs to the government of auditing taxpayers. Overall there is a 2:1 cost-benefit ratio.

Note that this is not the welfare effects of doing an additional audit! More to follow on that Image IRS projected to get $8.63 per $1 (with some uncertainty) for highest income taxpayers.

Man the top 0.1% gets a good deal — underpay on taxes *and* pay for your kids to get into college. Grrrrr Image
Aug 18, 2022 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
New paper on pandemic UI!

TLDR expanded benefits had large spending & small job-finding impacts

Implications
1) Unemployed hhs have high MPCs *even* though also have high liquidity. Inconsistent with rep agent model
2) Temporary benefits promising tool for future recessions New paper with @Dan_M_Sullivan @pascaljnoel @JoeVavra using #JPMCInstitute data

Reduced-form findings similar to prior drafts so I’ll focus here on what’s new which is that we organize the results into three lessons
Aug 23, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Amazing new paper by @amirrkermani @francisawong on the racial gap in housing returns.

Black and Hispanic households see their housing wealth grow less, contributing to the overall racial wealth gap substantially. The large raw differences are mostly about differences in borrower characteristics, particularly about *place* of purchase.
Aug 20, 2021 • 19 tweets • 6 min read
Millions of people have had federal UI benefits cut off

Stated goal: speed the labor market recovery.

Is it working?

Tldr: Nope. Per person losing benefits, net employment changes by -0.14 to + 0.08. Uncertainty remains large. What makes today special? BLS releases state employment data, so we can compare July employment in states that cut off benefits and states that did not.

The new data capture employment during the payroll period containing July 12. @pascaljnoel and @JoeVavra and I analyze.
Aug 19, 2021 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
New findings on spending during unemployment and macro conditions by my colleagues at #JPMCInstitute

TLDR: UI policy and liquidity are the key drivers of spending for unemployed households.

Macro conditions, in contrast, appear not to matter.

Thread ^ Spending very similar for
* Green line: Great Recession
* Blue line (almost identical): 2010's boom

These are two periods where macro conditions are very different, but income in the first few months of unemployment are very similar
Aug 6, 2021 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Tomorrow is jobs day and everyone wants to know how early cut off of pandemic benefits will affect employment

I can tell you the answer tonight... you won't learn anything tomorrow‼️

no state data are released ‼️

🧵 on evidence from 5 other data sources that *are* by state TLDR: four data sources point to no significant/detectable effect, one data source finds a decrease in employment. issues with parallel trend assumptions and inference are plentiful though.
Jul 29, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
New research on Pandemic Unemployment Assistance by JPMC Institute w @FionaGreigDC @Dan_M_Sullivan @pascaljnoel @JoeVavra

PUA is for people not eligible for regular UI

PUA meaningfully insures inc risk, but w/much longer wait for benefits!

jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jp… The plot above shows that for people who got regular UI in 2019, non-UI income falls at exactly the same time that UI kicks in (green line).

Regular UI in 2020 (orange line) income starts to fall four weeks before UI kicks in

PUA (blue) income starts to fall ten weeks before
Jul 29, 2021 • 22 tweets • 7 min read
🚨new results on the effect of UI supplements on job-finding 🚨

2 designs x 2 policy changes yield consistent pattern: small, precisely estimated disincentive effects

Disincentive remains small even after job openings up An overarching theme of the pandemic has been to view the supplements as responsible for the biggest problems (slow employment recovery, usually conservatives) and the biggest successes (rising wages at the bottom, usually liberals).

Our results are inconsistent with both views.
Jul 28, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Why is UI hard to access?

Most policy discussions (rightly) focus on issues of state capacity.

Amazing paper by Sorkin, Lachowska, and Woodbury focus on *firms* who make it hard to get UI and the seamy underbelly of experience rating. I think of this as the academic paper which captures @IndivarD's political economy model of a major problem with the UI system
Jul 16, 2021 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
Millions of people have had federal UI benefits cut off

Stated goal: speed the labor market recovery.

Is it working?

Tldr: It’s going to be really hard to use state employment data to do a good job of answering this question.

Looks like a noisy 0 So far, 26 governors have announced plans to cut off at least some federal benefits. 20 are cutting off all benefits by July 5. This is where we might expect to see the biggest effects.
Apr 15, 2021 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
“Should you coauthor your JMP?”

Motivated by @RyanReedHill and @carolyn_sms thread, @pascaljnoel and I decided to write our own coauthored JMP thread.

The “Hillstein” thread is excellent, but there are three additional *upsides* to doing this which we want to share! 1) Research is emotionally difficult, at least for me. I *hated* working alone. I was on leave when @pascaljnoel and I started working together in earnest. There’s a good chance I would not have finished my PhD if we hadn’t started working together.
Feb 11, 2021 • 24 tweets • 11 min read
🚨 new paper on labor market & expanded UI benefits 🚨

Tldr: spending ⬆️ more than expected,
job search ⬇️ order of magnitude less than expected

1) rise of repeat unemployment
2) effect of UI on spending
3) effect of UI on job search
4) connections to current policy debate “Spending and Job Search Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data”
With @FionaGreigDC @maxliebeskind @pascaljnoel @Dan_M_Sullivan @JoeVavra
bfi.uchicago.edu/working-paper/…
Jan 7, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Newly published paper by @danascoot @finamor_lucas which has I think the best evidence to date on the incentive effects of the $600 weekly supplement (🧵) (Dana's thread on the paper is here)
Dec 14, 2020 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
About 9 million people are set to exhaust unemployment benefits at the end of this year. What happens to spending at exhaustion?

tldr:
1) people don’t prepare for exhaustion
2) cut spending a lot at exhaustion
3) including on groceries and medical

🧵 @pascaljnoel and I have a July 2019 AER paper about this using pre-covid data

cpb-us-w2.wpmucdn.com/voices.uchicag…