🧵 1/ In light of @Polymarket's recent explosive growth, the ParaFi team has been analyzing on-chain data to understand two critical questions:

1) What factors are driving Polymarket’s recent traction?

2) To what degree is Polymarket’s growth driven by the U.S. election?

As context, ParaFi has been studying and investing in prediction markets since 2018. Today, ParaFi is the single largest investor in Polymarket, having invested in the seed round in 2020 and doubling down in subsequent years.

With the 2024 U.S. election approaching, Polymarket has seen $688 million in trading volume year to date and weekly active users grow ~14x from around 1,400 to 20,000+.

However, volumes only tell part of the story. There’s much more to unpack under the hood. ⬇️⬇️⬇️ 2/ Polymarket is ubiquitously referenced as a "source of truth" to understand the world’s most critical events in real time, cited by presidential candidates and media sources such as Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal.

has seen an exponential growth in web traffic. Over the past 12 months, daily page views have grown 10x with cumulative page views crossing 32 million. In the back half of July, daily page views peaked at 1.3 million and daily visitors peaked at 185,000.

With this data, we can see the number of people visiting is several orders of magnitude larger than the number of users actually trading. The popularity of Polymarket shows the platform’s emerging status as a powerful alternative to traditional media.Polymarket.com
Polymarket.com