Israeli sources are indicating that Israel is getting politically hemmed in on Syria, and “may lose operational freedom over the country”, and be forced to conduct a full withdrawal to the 1974 line, ie the occupied Golan Heights.
Still early but is in line with general diplomatic movements across the Middle East, especially due to Turkish, Qatari, and Saudi lobbying with the US on the matter.
I published an article in JANUARY looking at the Syrian governments patient response to Israel’s land invasion and aerial bombardment, pursuing multilateral diplomacy to lobby the US and apply pressure on Israel:
Public protest and pressure matters insofar as it is wedded to some form of power, i.e. a faction of decision-makers dissatisfied with the status quo and ready to make moves. Without this, public protest is impotence at best, counter-radicalising at worst.
The worst part is the same people who protest against those in power will offer little to no support (forget "moral" support, but support by *competence*) to other decision-makers doing the dirty work of making it to the top, forming coalitions, and quietly shifting incentives.
Apr 4 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Many are suggesting that this is due to the trend among our better minds towards 'secular fields of study', but the real answer lies in that little period of forgotten history between 1870s and 1950, a period that can only be defined as a cataclysm:
Between the 1870s-1950, the whole set of Islamic elites, high culture, and the ulema of "high learning" and worldly relevance (i.e. being actual jurists and administrators) were *eviscerated* by secular+nationalist forces from the Balkans to the Bengal.
Apr 2 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
The Palestinian "movement" spent decades building "alliances" and broadening the tent to include all manner of fools and got absolutely nothing to show for it. From university campuses to communist rallies to the Iranian axis, they have been a remarkable failure.
This strategy of openness turned the Palestinian cause into the favourite stalking horse of any vaguely anti-American/anti-western group or state, used to morally kvetch against the west, but never worked towards as an actual objective.
Feb 23 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Israel significantly escalating its rhetoric, saying they “won’t allow Syrian forces south of Damascus” and also saying they will protect the Druze in Suweyda (from what?). With an occupation in south Lebanon, Gaza, and West Bank, do they now want to occupy all of south Syria?
1. Damascus has to make a firm statement rejecting Israeli interference and re-emphasising withdrawal back to 1974 line
2. Druze of Suweyda must categorically reject Israeli statements and begin process of folding into the state, or they agree with these statements
Longer-term:
1. Destroy PKK and unify Syria so there’s no internal security threat
2. Finalise defence treaty with Turkiye
Jan 5 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Good thread, too bad Cedric tweets in French. The mass return of Sunni scholarship to Syria represents Al-Shara's real test as an emerging politician: if he wants to govern Syria, he has to build the biggest tent, fast. This means eg intra-Sunni alliances btwn Salafis and Sufis.
Syria's scholars trend towards sufi/ikhwani backgrounds, inherently at odds with HTS' style of salafism. That doesn't mean they can't coexist or cooperate. It just means they are not the same thing, and that will require concessions, especially by Al-Shara.
Dec 24, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
People don’t seem to understand the sheer political acumen on display in Syria right now. Every mistake made in the past decade is being carefully avoided. There is outreach to everyone. Deals are being made with all sides. The competence is staggering.
Much of this depends on the speed with which the Assad regime collapsed to create the unlikely scenario of a largely unified Syria in the same month. Foreign powers didn’t consider this scenario and haven’t had time enough to plot against this reality now.
Dec 11, 2024 • 18 tweets • 6 min read
MEGAPROJECTS:
Syria's economy is in tatters, but the removal of the Assad regime also means the removal of its North Korea-style isolation from regional states and the global economy.
Syrians can't and won't subsist on handouts. It is beneath their dignity. Business is the order of the day. Syria's ecology and industry are in dire need of being brought into the 21st century. This will boost security and prosperity, and regional integration.
Dec 11, 2024 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
The most significant political cleavage in Syria to come is going to be the issue of religion and state. The greatest opposition to the "Islamicness" of the Syrian state is probably not coming from minorities per se, but true secularists among Sunnis, Christians, Druze, etc.
The secular POV is that secularism is the default worldview and that all sects rest on it according to the same ruleset, and none of them can interfere with the default worldview.
Sep 13, 2023 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
Now on Post Apathy:
Writing & the Origin of Ideas
Islamdom suffers from civilisational bankruptcy. We must write our way out.
postapathy.com/p/writing-and-…
Islamdom suffers from a pervasive lack of creativity. It is not an exaggeration to say that the Muslim world is among the least generative (in terms of idea production + effect on the world) among all 'civilisational groups'.
