Galloway's victory in Rochdale is a "which side are you on?" moment, both for the left and democrats everywhere: 🧵1/ The #1 task is to isolate and ostracise him and any politicians/activists aligning with him... treat him like Greek Parliament treated Golden Dawn... 2/ I want to see Labour's NEC and Shadow Cabinet come up with a clear political strategy to defeat both Galloway and any party launched by Corbyn; a clear fight against Islamophobia combined with renewed efforts push for a ceasefire in Gaza and also reassure the Jewish community...

The most important event in British politics yesterday took place in Maryland. At CPAC Liz Truss declared war on Britain's "deep state" - the Environment Agency, the OBR and the Judicial Appointments Committee... I kid you not... 1/ 🧵

thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-tr… 2/ ...it's a straight copy of Trumpism and no doubt designed to channel American fascist money into the vehicle Farage and the NatCons create in opposition. But consider the logic ...

I don't know what @Keir_Starmer is going to say about the new costings for Labour's Green Prosperity Plan, but here's why they had to move on from the £28bn: 🧵 1/ The cost of borrowing has increased 4x since the pledge was made... medium.com/@paulmasonnews…
2/ The fiscal dynamics modelled in Labour's original scheme have probably worsened. Labour's 2021 chart (below) shows the cost of decarbonising late: it have probably worsened but we don't know what the baseline debt - the "zero" in this chart - actually is...
medium.com/@paulmasonnews…

The USA and it's Allies have adopted a strategy of non-escalation with Iran, as it triggers one proxy after another to attack bases, warships, civilian shipping 1/ Today's killing of US troops may not be an "escalation"... 2/ ... because without air defences, 97 previous attacks could have inflicted such casualties; likewise the attack on HMS Diamond overnight; but since 7 October the legitimate question is what is Iran's strategic intent? ...

The Telegraph's mega MRP poll gives Labour a 120 seat majority - but only if a) Reform stand everywhere and b) Jeremy Corbyn refrains from starting a new left party... I would not bank on those conditions 1/ 🧵 telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/…
2/ Trouble with MRP is it models local demographics but local conditions... here's an example: Sunak's own seat of Richmond & Northallerton... is anyone seriously telling me that if it was in play for Labour 9% would vote Green?

4 years ago I was tramping the streets of Birmingham and Coventry trying to limit the damage Corbyn's leadership had done to our chances of winning the election 1/ here's what I wrote three days later ...

2/ I said then we could turn things around in 5 years if we combined economic radicalism with mainstream Labour politics on crime, defence and national security ... I underestimated how badly Skripal had damaged us, how quickly Johnson's populism would fall apart, and how reluctant the left would be to learn lessons ...

The plus point from last night was that all Labour MPs backed Keir Starmer's motion calling for an immediate, extended humanitarian pause - because that's the only way we have to save innocent lives right now:
de-escalate, switch to counter-terror, massive humanitarian aid 1/... 2/ I would not have backed the SNP amendment... it opens a future Labour government to leverage attacks
by Russia and Iran. I ask those who did to repudiate the smear campaign and witch-hunt being waged against the majority of Labour MPs this morning by MAB/PSC... and...

Starmer's speech outlined a strong, internationalist and socialist approach to Gaza crisis - and gave those who want Labour to back a ceasefire a route to it: free the hostages and degrade Hamas offensive capabilities 1/ so Labour MPs now have leeway to argue for ceasefire .... 2/ Starmer went much further than HMG - specifying no population transfers, no blank cheque for Israel over LOAC. He looked like a PM in waiting and didn't run away either from a mob of people accusing him of "genocide" outside. Now the question is...

These by-election results are seismic. Mid-Beds is a Tory heartland and Lab held off a Lib-Dem challenge (mounted as usual using polling disinfo) - biggest Tory loss since 1945 ... Tamworth also looked hard to do given voter alienation... what it means? 1/ Sunak needs to resign now ...


2/ At a time of acute international crisis he's taking major decisions (HS2, Net Zero) without a mandate. Politicians have a duty to their country first, party second and Sunak - whose family seem to benefit from every policy he enacts - is out of his depth...

There's a rule in screenwriting that every page has to contain the guiding idea of the movie: Starmer's speech yesterday followed that perfectly - and revealed the essence of his politics... here's the keywords: "Working people never let each other down"...1/🧵 2/ He actually said it twice. It's a signal of the class basis of the project that I don't think many political commentators understand ... this is not top down Fabianism or rehashed Blairism, it's an appeal to class solidarity with strongly communitarian vibes ...

You wanted a multipolar world? You got it. The Hamas terror attack has triggered war in Gaza, a geopolitical crisis and now – from Sydney to NYC – an anti-Semitism challenge in the West. How to respond? 0/…🧵 1/ Hamas’ offers truce/ negotiations having “achieved its objective”: if so, the objective was to demonstrate proof of concept of an unstoppable pogromist terror, forcing itself (and Iran) back into the power-broking process in the ME region… “talk to us or we do this again”…

I am still struggling to comprehend the enormity of the Hamas terror attack on Israel. We still don't know its strategic intent, or the extent of Iranian complicity, but here's my thoughts - aimed at fellow Labour conference people also trying to formulate our response... 0/... 1/ I condemn the Hamas attack on Israel. Israel has the right to defend itself, to rescue the hostages and detain/prosecute the perpetrators. I also condemn decades of oppression of the Palestinians under occupation ... But the point of politics is to make evil hard to perpetrate…

Sunak speech: 1/ His comment about Nicola Sturgeon, if uttered by a journalist live on air, would lead to them being taken off air immediately. It risks contempt of court. And the broadcasters cannot report on this error of judgment accurately without also risking contempt.... 2/ HS2 cancellation - I'm told there are still actually negotiations inside govt about how much of the 36bn can be repurposed. Because of issue of penalty clauses for cancelling Phase 2. 2a was given Royal Assent in 2021. Need clarity before celebrating any non-existent routes, which do not have planning permission...

Putin's anti-Semitic attack on Zelensky yesterday didn't come out of nowhere. It's linked to the Russian fascist reading of the BRICS conference... here goes: 1/ Note Putin's words describing the West: "anti-human"... meduza.io/en/news/2023/0… 2/ Jews as avatars for "anti-humanism" is a classic Nazi trope. And as it happens, Alexander Dugin used *exactly the same words* one day before Putin... in a video on his website which is (thankfully) blocked by Twitter...

I campaigned in Uxbridge and here's why I think Labour failed to win. 1/ ULEZ - it's a community entirely based around the car and the Tories made it a single issue campaign .... but Labour failed to deal with it coherently from the start... 2/But that's not all. There was "buyer's non remorse" about having Johnson as their MP. If you've voted for a con man, repeatedly bought Brooklyn Bridge, it's hard to admit you were fooled... there was genuine enthusiasm for "being back Boris"...

A short 🧵on NATO's Vilnius summit: 1/ There's a clear mismatch between Sunak/Biden self-congratulatory tone and the bitter realism of Zelensky: Zelensky is right - the West has blinked in the face of Russian escalation threats... 2/ It's not a disaster, because NATO and the G7 piled up commitments to arms, aid and reconstruction capacity... but Biden/Sullivan (with Wallace in tow) are re-asserting the conditionalities of Western military aid... Russia has to lose but not so badly it collapses...

The evening will be crucial for Prizhogin's coup - because it, too, is hybrid warfare. It's an info op aimed at security factions and ethno-nationalist far right ... RIA Novostii is reporting events fairly straight but how do the state TV shows play Rostov? Putin's speech? 1/ 2/ The physical advance of Wagner's M4 column will stall, but the security state works 9-to-5 (as the joke goes... 9pm to 5am) ... if any serious army unit or state faction is going to support Prigozhin they will move tonight ... meanwhile ...

Okay I am going to explain why @UKLabour will win the next election, and why it has to win the election, with the aid of a single graph, out today from the ONS... it shows the size of Britain's GDP over the past two decades...can you see it something? 1/ 2/ Look how hard the 2008 crisis hit GDP: our economy didn't get back to its former size for five years... because the Tories chose austerity over growth... but it's hard to suppress GDP growth... so the line goes up...

The Nova Kakhovka dam "collapsed" at its most critical point of failure - the power plant - at the same moment as an explosion, on the same day Ukraine launched its counter-offensive. There is a much better explanation than Russian "neglect"... 1/ 2/ Journalists write the first draft of history. We *know* more facts will become available over time: the point of recording what happened is timeliness. He said/she said is just stenography. The fact is the dam collapsed immediately after an explosion...

This is the key change of commitment from @RachelReevesMP today... instead of £28bn/yr over 10 yrs (a figure closely matching Corbyn/MacDonnell's green new deal investment plan) she will ramp up over y1, y2... (source Times Red Box) 1/ 2/ The context. 10 year Gilt yields now pushing limits last tested by Truss in October. The bond markets just don't buy the Tory growth story and RR now has to think realistically about a y1 budget...

I've warned for more than a year that we won't defeat the pro-Putin left through bureaucratic measures: understanding the logic and fighting it is what every union official needs to learn, or a UCU-style fiasco is coming your way... 1/ 🧵 2/ and that applies to Labour too...