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George Pearkes Profile picture
George Pearkes
@pearkes
Macro Strategist | Econ, macro & home cooking | Prev @Canada, @DukeFOOTBALL | Even the blind squirrel get a nut sometime | Long Live Jail Support
Sep 29, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
The annual benchmark revisions for NIPA showed gross domestic income was substantially over-estimated relative to GDP in 2021 and 2022. Revisions narrowed the gap substantially. But what got revised? Image Revisions to GDI by category show that 2020 GDI was much higher than expected primarily thanks to higher non-wage business spending, higher corporate profits, and higher subsidies paid out during the pandemic. But the divergence between GDI and GDP was close for 2021 forward. Image
Sep 29, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
BEA revised away a big chunk of the GDI-GDP gap that emerged post-COVID. GDP was broadly revised up, GDI was slashed. Upward revisions to real durable goods spending, structures investment (partially a seasonality thing), nondefense federal government spending, and services trade (both exports and imports).
Aug 26, 2022 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
I know everyone is quoting the various French power contracts but an interesting dynamic is that term structure is in contango rather than backwardation. Month ahead trades well above day ahead, year ahead trades well above month ahead. That's kind of the opposite of what you'd expect if there was a serious near-term supply-demand imbalance (then you'd see strong backwardation).
Jun 15, 2022 • 41 tweets • 6 min read
We're a bit less than 30 mins away so here's the start of my FOMC thread. Mute it if you don't want the feed spam, I won't mind I promise.

Statement will be here at 2p ET --> federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre…
SEP will be here --> federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy… Presser will be here at 2:30 ET -->
Mar 28, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Wholesale inventories have risen at a 20%+ annualized rate each month from October to February. I'm sure this will have no impact on prices. Sorry this is durables only - so there's no impact from commodity price moves.
Mar 22, 2022 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
I think there's some confusion over how sanctions are supposed to work and how we can see their effects with respect to Russia. TLDR: the RUB is not a good way to measure the impact. Thought process below. All else equal, cutting an economy off from the rest of the world should deliver a massive and persistent decline in its currency, mostly due to capital flows. But in the case of Russia, three things are offsetting that expected reaction.
Mar 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I think there's a conflation of the concerns here. "Rate hikes" as a general principle are very different from "hike as fast as practicable" or "stable prices are a pre-condition of broad and inclusive maximum employment". The FOMC is saying they're going to crush inflation and that's far more important than the other side of their policy mandate. That's very different from "we can engineer a soft landing with a few rate hikes to calm things down and get to equilibrium".
Dec 17, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
SA deaths as a share of cases remain at an order of magnitude lower than during prior three waves in that country. Rejoinder 1: deaths lag cases! yes, so that's why we're looking at the same windows of prior waves. Given speed of growth in Omicron, we still could be about to see a huge surge in deaths. But it just hasn't showed up, not even a little bit.
Dec 15, 2021 • 36 tweets • 7 min read
Median three hikes in 2022 on the SEP, taper pace doubled. Unanimous vote. Also: "Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have continued to contribute to elevated levels of inflation"
May 18, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Start whiff 👀, no recovery after the Feb/Mar weather hit. SF permits have also refused to make new highs - interesting stuff there. SF permits were basically the same in April as February, when all of Texas was basically a black hole. And this isn't about bottlenecks...permits shouldn't be impacted by immediate input availability.
Apr 30, 2021 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Similar to 2009, we're seeing substantial monthly PCE prints as the economy gears back up. Annualized was 4.4% this month. Core PCE remains much firmer than CPI. Durables + energy.
Apr 30, 2021 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
Okay so at the request of @LumberTrading, we're going to talk about why mortgage-backed securities are a rate product, and what that means. Apologies, this will be long. When you borrow to purchase a home, the lender has basically two options: hold the mortgage ("portfolio") or sell it. If selling, there are two further options: sell to one of the government-sponsored entities or gov't (GSE & FHA/VA securitizations), or someone else (PLS).
Apr 29, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
GDP miss, +6.4% QoQ SAAR in Q1 vs +6.7% expected. BEA data feeds looking sketchy here, numbers trickling in. PCE +10.7%, topped estimates, but it looks like commodity price inflation is the big reason for the miss. Real growth missed by 0.3% QoQ SAAR, GDP price index beat by 1.5% QoQ SAAR, core PCE missed (+2.3% QoQ SAAR vs +2.4% estimated).
Apr 28, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Statement here in a minute or two ----> federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre… Yawn
Jan 27, 2021 • 10 tweets • 1 min read
*FACEBOOK 4Q DAILY ACTIVE USERS 1.84B, EST. 1.83B
*FACEBOOK 4Q AD REV. $27.19B, EST. $26B
*FACEBOOK 4Q EPS $3.88, EST. $3.22

Zuck beats in style "tailwind" to ad business in 2H '20, adding $25bn in share buybakcs.
Jan 27, 2021 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Yawn Loving the hold music today
Jan 27, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Renewables names are a big source of funds in Europe this morning, absolutely nasty rotation underway thanks to the short-hunting.
Jan 26, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Thx for playing

*MICROSOFT 2Q REV. $43.08B, EST. $40.20B
*MICROSOFT 2Q EPS $2.03, EST. $1.64 Seattle in the news for the good and bad

*STARBUCKS 1Q COMP SALES -5%, EST. -4.2%
Jan 26, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The people with need are the ones who have been forced into Tent City. And giving them a timeline before unleashing violence on them doesn’t change the inhumanity of Charlotte government preferring force to care once again. This is Jail Support all over again. Just last night at Tent City @CMPD sent a man to the hospital, kneeling on his neck as they arrested him. It’s only a matter of time before they kill someone. facebook.com/10000692388089…
Oct 12, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Official Georgia poll lines thread, now by county!

Gwinnett: Fulton:
Oct 10, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I had missed the details of this earlier but the gist is: Vatican bought notes that were juiced with some sort of CDS exposure (probably something tied to CDX HY?). Hertz blew up, but the notes paid out in full. So...the Vatican is good at credit trading?
ft.com/content/f966e8… To me it's a lot more scandalous that the Papacy has €500mm sitting around which could be feeding or clothing people and is instead being tossed in fixed income investments which prove to be quite savvy.