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Peter Donaghy Profile picture
Peter Donaghy
@peterdonaghy
Accountant and data analyst Also @peterdonaghy.bsky.social 🇺🇦
Jun 6, 2024 • 19 tweets • 6 min read
Northern Ireland general election 2024 forecast. Starting with overall results, and then each constituency from safest to most marginal. Image A Sinn Féin landslide in West Belfast Image
Oct 29, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I think I've identified a possible cause for the apparent jump in inflation in Northern Ireland compared with Great Britain in April 2022. The ONS have broken out the drivers behind this, with "Restaurants and hotels" responsible for much of the difference. The ONS point out that this "may be an artefact of the smaller sample sizes in Northern Ireland". They aren't wrong! The number of data points used to calculate April 2022 hotel price CPI inflation in NI was... two. One hotel charging £299 for a room, and another at £213 a night.
Dec 31, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
One more attempt to convince people that things really are different this time with COVID, focusing on London, several weeks into an Omicron wave. First, the bad news, which is the recent increase in COVID admissions. The situation isn't as bad as it looks, because... 🧵 Firstly, a rise in acute COVID inpatient numbers has been offset by a fall in non-COVID acute inpatient numbers. Non-COVID numbers fell around Christmas, but the trend is clear. There are twice as many beds available now to non-COVID patients now as the October-November average.
Dec 29, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Around 1 in 23 of the population of NI have tested positive for COVID-19 in the last 30 days, nearly 2½ times higher than the winter 20/21 peak and rising. Despite this, the number of COVID patients in ICU is lower than it was at any point during August 2021. Image [correction: 1 in 26 people, not 1 in 23] Image
Jun 9, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
I was looking into recent UK COVID-19 data, and I think it's reasonable to conclude:

Case fatality rate has fallen by around 86%, from 1.1% in winter to 0.15% now

Case hospitalization rate has fallen by 63%

This pattern is evident in areas where the Delta variant dominant
🧵 Hospitalization and deaths from COVID-19 lag behind cases. From trial and error, it looks like the best lag to use for hospitalizations is the 31 day period after a confirmed positive test. For deaths, cases over a 14 day period starting 28 days ago seems to work best.
Jun 8, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The way they're stinging these announcements out they may as well have went the whole hog and painted them on a parade of elephants Or got the entire population of Australia to spell them out in lights
Jan 27, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Israel released new data on the split of new COVID-19 cases by age and the results are... interesting. Israel's vaccination programme for the over 80s is nearly complete; 88% of over 80s have received a first dose, and 65% a second. The gap between doses appears around 3 weeks. Given such a big disparity between vaccination rates among over 80s and the overall population, you might case rates for over 80s to fall relative to the overall population. However, this doesn't appear to have happened, at least not yet.
Jan 26, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Another pretty disappointing day with the Northern Ireland COVID-19 vaccine rollout yesterday, with 3,675 first doses (0.19% of the population) and 82 second doses. The weekly increase rate has fallen to 1.6% of the population; the increase rate in both England and Wales is 4.1%. The same data as a daily increase - for a full week now vaccination rates in NI have lagged behind GB