Primarily interested in Cold War lessons for 21st Century Problems.
Former Civil Servant.
4 subscribers
Oct 3 • 15 tweets • 6 min read
In the 1980s, the US Government wanted to purchase Royal Navy Polaris missiles to use them to test the effectiveness of the SDI missile defence system. This was seen as both an opportunity, and serious threat to UK nuclear security concerns.
Short thread on SDI & Chevaline...
For almost 30 years the Polaris SSBN force was the backbone of the UK's strategic nuclear arsenal. 4 submarines, carry 16 missiles with 3 warheads were available to deliver an overwhelming nuclear attack on any aggressor if required.
Sep 23 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
In August 1983, Ministers were concerned that the Argentine military planned to carry out a surprise Exocet attack on a Royal Navy warship off the Falkland Islands. The RN assessed Seawolf only had a 35% chance of intercepting any inbound missile...
Thread on Exocet 1983.
In Aug 83, Minister Armed Forces sought advice from the Royal Navy about the risk of Argentine military forces carrying out a sneak attack using Exocet in certain domestic political circumstances.
Sep 21 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
In 1982 Maj Gen Jeremy Moore RM took the surrender of Argentine Forces on the Falkland Islands. He was signatory to the original surrender document.
In 1983 the MOD launched a formal investigation about rumours that more than one document existed, and was being kept by him...
In 1983, the MOD identified that a 2nd surrender possibly document existed, and may have been kept by Maj Gen Moore.
The Secretary of State was sufficiently concerned to order a formal investigation to find, and recover this document.
Aug 24 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
Lots of reporting today about alleged claims for what the KGB would have done in the UK in the event of a run up to war, to support a new book about MI5.
Lets look at actual Cold War MI5 documents, quoting Oleg Gordievsky (codename OVATION) to see what MI5 really thought...
A new book about the Soviet spy Lyalin claims that the Soviets looked at trying to poison Holy Loch in the 1970s to cause peace activists to force a ban on the presence of US Navy Polaris submarines - a key risk to Russia in the event of war.
According to previously unseen highly SECRET files release today (22 Jul), in 1989, the UK Government began planning in the utmost secrecy for the mass evacuation of millions of people from Hong Kong ahead of handover to China.
This was called 'The Armageddon Scenario'
Following the massacre in Tiananmen Square, there was real concern that the Colony, due to be handover over to China in 1997 would see a potential mass exodus of people fleeing Chinese tyranny and repression. This would have huge repercussions for the UK and beyond.
Jul 18 • 22 tweets • 8 min read
In 1972, at Ministerial request, the MOD made SECRET plans to conduct a parachute attack on Entebbe Airport, with SAS raids, RAF airlift and RN airstrikes to evacuate 7000 UK nationals.
Long thread on OP ZEUS and how & why the UK was preparing to invade Uganda in 1972/
In August 1972 President, Idi Amin of Uganda directed the South Asian population to leave the country in 90 days. There were approximately 50,000 UK passport holders caught up in this situation, the FCO realised an evacuation was necessary, and asked the MOD for help.
Jun 30 • 22 tweets • 10 min read
Following allegations about a Russian spy in MI6, its time to return to the 1980s and the publication of "Their Trade is Treachery".
Long PSL thread on a 1981 Whitehall spy saga and leak inquiry that involved every living British Prime Minister...
#coldwar #Espionage #spying
In 1979, just after arriving in Office, PM Thatcher was informed in writing that Anthony Blunt, a key Establishment figure, was the '4th man' linked to well known British spies, as part of wider investigations into Soviet penetration of the UK
She announced this publicly.
May 31 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
UK may acquire F35A, capable of using tactical nuclear weapons, and expand FF/DD fleet to 25 as part of SDR.
Big changes, but also challenging, expensive and years to deliver. Tactical nuclear mission would be huge commitment of FJ force /1
thetimes.com/uk/defence/art…
UK has no capability to develop/deploy air launched tactical warhead within 10yrs, so reliance on dual key B61 seems likely. Huge costs for associated nuclear mission, protection of assets and stepping up nuclear QRA - this will be incredibly expensive to deliver.
Apr 18 • 23 tweets • 9 min read
In 1968 Tony Benn asked Dennis Healey for the Royal Navy to provide aircraft carriers to ferry British made cars, like the Vauxhall Viva to the United States due to a shortage of shipping.
This thread tells the untold story of how the RN did its best to not comply!
In spring 1968 the Suez canal was shut following the 1967 war. There was a global shortage of shipping, and the British car industry needed ships to ferry its vessels to the USA in time for peak sales season. Commercial shipping was in short supply.
Apr 13 • 23 tweets • 9 min read
The Russians have a long history of covertly spying in UK waters. This thread is about their spy ships in the Cold War, the threat they posed to the nuclear deterrent and the extensive steps taken by the Royal Navy to stop them.
Full PSL blog is tinyurl.com/4t6nvwy8
In 1988 the Royal Navy was deeply concerned about the new VISHNAYA class AGI operating off Malin Head, and the Soviet Type 75 Sonobuoy, shown by the RAF to be capable of tracking a NATO submarine deep in the GIUK gap. This posed a real threat to UK naval security.
Mar 15 • 21 tweets • 8 min read
This is one of the final design options for the Type 43 Destroyer. This little known cancelled project to succeed the Type 42, was far more important than generally realised, and far more capable too.
A short thread on the forgotten destroyer design. /1
The Type 43 emerged in the late 1970s as the successor platform to T42, intended to carry Seadart to provide air defence to task forces operating globally, but particularly in the North Atlantic.
Mar 8 • 21 tweets • 8 min read
I love crazy Cold War documents. This is a classic of the genre. It is the SECRET wartime instructions from the Home Office for Immigration Officers on how to process visas and illegal immigrants arriving in the UK after a nuclear attack has happened.
Short thread!
It starts with the reminder that in wartime, contact with HQ won't be possible and immigration officers will need to act independently - if in doubt though, follow the peacetime procedure! /2
Feb 16 • 19 tweets • 7 min read
In 1992 the British Government was concerned that the US Administrations move to build links with Russia threatened the credibility of the Trident nuclear deterrent, and the 'Moscow Criterion'.
Thread on espionage, nuclear warheads and UK Trident effectiveness follows!
British nuclear deterrence is built around core idea that the UK can inflict unacceptable harm to Russian regimes core interests (e.g. Moscow). If this can be achieved, then it follows other areas can also be destroyed - 'the bomb must always get through'.
Feb 8 • 25 tweets • 9 min read
In March 1963 the Royal Navy submarines HMS GRAMPUS and HMS PORPOISE participated in secret arctic trials.
Archive files provided remarkable unseen photos of RN submarines operating deep in the Arctic as part of Exercise SKUA.
Long thread on the exercise follows!
The plan was to spend about a month operating in the Arctic, off the east coast of Greenland and sailing over 500 miles under the icepack - a bold move for a conventional submarine which needed to 'snort' for air.
Jan 21 • 15 tweets • 6 min read
In a TOP SECRET 1972 briefing, the MOD advised Ministers that were NATO forces to be reduced to 20 Divisions in Central Europe, that in the event of war, the only way to avoid defeat would be to use tactical nuclear weapons within 48hrs.
Quick thread on nuclear deterrence...
In 1972 NATO nations were seeking arms control talks with the Warsaw Pact known as the MBFR process - Mutual Balanced Force Reductions process (or 'Most Bizzare Form of Ritual'). There was concern this would lead to defence spending cuts across NATO.
Jan 19 • 27 tweets • 9 min read
In 1972, based on still TOP SECRET intelligence reporting by the JIC, the MOD assessed the conventional threat to the UK from the Soviet Union.
It concluded the UK could not defend itself against the conventional Soviet Naval and Air threat.
Long thread follows!
/1
The study came about due to a reportedly still classified JIC assessment which concluded that in a conventional war phase, the Soviets would potentially target tactical nuclear 'dual use' sites.
RN/RFA ships in Jan 2023 - 81
RN/RFA ships in Dec 2024 - 72
Royal Navy Fleet in Dec 2024:
2 x Carrier, 6 x DDG, 8 x FFG, 7 x MCMV, 4 x SSBN, 5 x SSN, 8 x OPV, 18 x Coastal forces (P2000), 3 x Survey vessels, 4 x tankers, 1 AOR, 3 x LSD(A), 1 x MCMV mothership, 1 x ROV Vessel, 1 x PCRS.
Dec 24, 2024 • 23 tweets • 8 min read
In 1986 the UK and France signed a secret agreement covering the defence use of the Channel Tunnel. Major plans were made to use, and defend it. This thread (and blog) explore the details of logistics, hospital trains and transition to war. tinyurl.com/2hkxypws
In the 1980s the UK had around 70,000 Army and RAF personnel based in Europe, built around a Corps and multiple air units. These groups required constant resupply and restoring from the UK, usually by sea. This was not an effective, or efficient outcome.
Dec 22, 2024 • 18 tweets • 7 min read
The Express is running a story claiming that the RN is going to be down to one carrier. This is both true and also a misrepresentation of what is actually happening - short thread to provide some context! /1
The UK has two carriers. The aim is to have one ready for ops at all times, and the other at varying readiness levels. There are no plans to operate both continuously - no navy in history has ever been able to do this.
Nov 20, 2024 • 23 tweets • 9 min read
The MOD is retiring a number of capabilities to save money. In the biggest cuts to the RN in nearly 20 years, 5 warships, over 100k tonnes of shipping, are being scrapped along with 32 helicopters and dozens of drones.
Long thread on why this isn't as bad as some may think. /1
The context is that the MOD is financially strained due to inflation, cost growth, rise in operating costs and shortfalls of people. Elderly equipment is being run on far longer than planned and there is not enough money to do everything that MOD wants to do. /2
Oct 3, 2024 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
Some more BIOT thoughts. Firstly, there is a lot of misinformation out there. People assume the island will soon be surrounded by 'Chinese bases'. In reality the nearest island is approx 100 miles away - hardly 'close neighbours'. /1
Today the Chinese could park a spy ship 12nm off DG and there is nothing we can do. So hysteria over a base on a 2mile long island, without a harbour, 100 miles away, seems a bit overkill. The Chinese fleet cannot anchor here! /2