#swfc full time thoughts:

Ainsworthing blew up in Ipswich’s faces second half when the game was there to be shut down by pouncing on our disarray. Seemed like an attempt to protect the lead that went wrong and a bit of wilting in a hostile atmosphere? Very impressed by how regimented and disciplined Ipswich were particularly first half on and off the ball. Made us look second rate, and it definitely felt like A Plan was beating A Vibes Team, and justly so.

#swfc I really, earnestly hoped this was the time I'd read a Chansiri interview and it'd be different. Alas no. Petulance and an unwillingness to learn. And still without much idea what a Wednesdayite is, how we think [thread]

https://twitter.com/YesWeCrann/status/1467389637937278976?s=20

examinerlive.co.uk/sport/football… 1/26 The petulance on show: “'When something good happens it’s because I have supposedly taken a step back. When it’s not good, then it’s my fault'” and "The chairman offered an answer that suggested he felt he was going to be hit with negativity not matter what he did". 2/26

#swfc I can see from @DomHowson's player ratings that him and eye did not see the game the same way at all, so I should probably have a longer think and calm down a bit, but writing relieves stress, so here goes:

Created our own downfall once again. 1/37 What on earth have we been doing on the training pitch for three weeks for these players to look MORE like strangers to each other than they did before the international break? 2/37

#swfc What a frustrating half of football. All blood and thunder from the start, blowing Shrewsbury out backwards in the opening quarter of the game, but, quite inexplicably, we've let them a poor Shrewsbury - calamitous in defence - back into the game and it's one all at HT 1/11 Shodipo tore Shrewsbury a new one down our left going either side of their sorry full back time and again and also drifting in centrally from where he won the penalty. 2/11

#swfc Good things: There should be no doubt for these players that this sort of comatose laurel-resting, "big club going away to a lower league ground" sort of non-performance will see us crucified time and again, especially in this league, which has plenty of quality this year. By some distance the worst we've been this season and at no point of the game did we have much of a handle on it. It looked like we were only seeing Plymouth's passes and movement 1-2 seconds after they were made and only then did we react to them.

#swfc Probably our worst half of the season so far. Plymouth showing everything we haven't: Tenacity, invention, movement, fluidity, connecting passes. (thread) Plymouth have taken a leaf out of Rotherham's book and strangled our rythm by marking/pressing high when BPF is on the ball ready to distribute. I expect to see plenty more teams do the same against us considering how successful Plymouth (and R'ham) have been doing so.

#swfc @KieranMaguire covers all the necessary ground in the article below from @AlexMiller91, and has even supplied headline numbers (

https://twitter.com/KieranMaguire/status/1412453209684197381?s=20

), but I thought I'd jump in with some projections for 20-21 and 21-22 to sort of tie a knot on things in the thread below.

https://twitter.com/AlexMiller91/status/1412461388904153092

I'm currently deep into writing a season review/preview thing that also has a lot of financial data and analysis - obviously needs tinkering now the accounts are out 😜

Enough pre-amble, here are some charts:

Revenue likely to be halved in 20-21 and decrease further in 21-22:

#swfc have 9 matches left to complete an unlikely relegation escape.

In the thread below, a look at the historical context of what a Great Escape would look like.

The points won by teams at the bottom of this season's Championship are tracking a typical season quite closely: In general teams at the bottom improve their form more in the last 9 matches than teams further up the table, so we shouldn't assume the helping hand of a collapse by the teams above us:

#swfc To follow up on @AlexMiller91's run through in the article below:

Wednesday's issue this season has been creating chances for the forwards, not the forwards converting their chances. A theme that has continued on from last season.

[thread below]

https://twitter.com/AlexMiller91/status/1374035573862711297

Our forwards this season are scoring at the same rate they were last season - a goal every third game/0.32 goals per 90 minutes - from the same general quality of chances (Expected Goals (xG) of 0.33 per 90 minutes):

#swfc An attempt to make sense of our 2018/19 accounts, and football finance, in the far too long (sorry!) "read along" thread below.

tl;dr: Still in the purgatory of unsustainable spending and viable only for as long as Chansiri keeps underwriting £20m losses every year. First things first: I'm just a dude in Denmark with a spreadsheet. There's no magic In The Know knowledge or other such things in what I do and have done. It's all based on publicly available sources of information treated to a bit of thinking.

#swfc How did the season end from here in the last 22 seasons?

Not many teams escape the bottom 3 in the last 12 matches.

Only 8 of 88 Play-Offs contestants have come from outside top 8 after 34 matches. Historically speaking it's a myth that everything is still up for grabs: 21st, Birmingham, are currently on course for 46 points at season's end. 18 points more than we have currently.

But the points won per game in the last 12 is for the bottom positions is higher than the first 34 matches - whereas it actually declines for the top positions:

#swfc are finally back in league action tonight 8pm GMT away to Coventry #pusb

A relegation six pointer to kick off our second half of the season with 7 points separating us in 23rd and them in 16th.

A look of our numbers and theirs below and what they can tell us.

[thread] I looked at the survival prognosis for teams in our position yesterday (

https://twitter.com/ploehmann/status/1354245748318220290?s=20

).

Thankfully a prognosis is not a prediction, but it does bear out just how important tonight's game is.

#swfc Derby's latest win over QPR leaves Wednesday six points adrift of 21st and safety with two matches in hand.

How have teams in those circumstances done in the previous 22 seasons?

[thread] First off we have to equalise Derby's points tally to our number of matches.

If we use points won per game for everyone, and how many points that would give them after the same number of matches as us, 23, this is how the table would look:

A gap of 4, not 6, points.

#swfc Sam Hutchinson's back!

Which first of all tempts me into re-posting this, rather cringingly :-D

https://twitter.com/ploehmann/status/808802676226060288?s=20

Secondly, and more seriously, let's have a short look at his record in a numbers-related way.

[thread] Hutchinson has 152 league appearances for Wednesday in 6½ years, averaging 23 league matches (50%) a year as well as 131 starts = 20 a year.

In that period he missed 13 matches through suspension, was sent off 5 times and yellow carded a staggering 51 times.

#swfc I've done alright when researching things online in the past (it's also a not insignificant part of my job).

But just like in 2015, when Dejphon Chansiri bought our club, I am incapable of finding any evidence of his business experience as a CEO online.

(thread below) Chansiri's older brother by 3 years, Thiraphong, runs the family business formed by his father.

Who wants a few US Presidential election charts? I can hardly hear you there at the back, but I'll take that as a yes!

The polls were off in 2016.

In the 12 states that are in play in the US in 2020, 5 ended up with Trump as winner despite the forecast pointing to Clinton: In 2020 those same 12 states look a lot more likely to be going for the Democrats and Biden than they did in 2016 for Clinton:

#swfc A big roll of the dice by Monk here!

Wildsmith, IMHO the best 'keeper at the club, given the chance to make no. 1 his.

Iorfa bringing much needed physicality and pace to a Börner and Palmer in the back three.

Windass at the tip of the three in midfield?

https://twitter.com/swfc/status/1322538817614712834

I really hope we use a similar ploy to when Luongo played a Libero role, as three centre backs can leave us too depleted further up the pitch against Wycombe's 4-2-3-1. The reason 3-5-2 went out of vogue in the early 2000s was precisely because teams turned to lone front men.

"What's the matter with Reading? (and xG)"

Some interesting discussion (if you're a footy data 🤓 like me at least!) Thursday on the use of Expected Goals (xG), which Reading's wild start to the season has brought a spotlight on.

A few thoughts from me below.

[thread]

https://twitter.com/Analytics1871/status/1321902632605200384

The good people at @FiveThirtyEight supply their match level xG and non-shot xG data for a lot of leagues, and from 2016, on their site for free: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-api/clu…

That's the data I've used in the rest of the tweet thread.

#swfc are the bookies' second favourites for relegation behind only Wycombe (oddschecker.com/football/engli…), because of our 12 points deduction (pending appeal (yeah, not really)).

How high is the mountain we have to climb in historical terms then?

@NTT20Pod asked me to have a look. Below are the teams that just survived (21st) and were the final team relegated (22nd) in the last 22 seasons of the Championship.

The difference between teams in 21st is a lot narrower than for teams in 22nd:

Half the teams in 21st won between 48 and 50 points.

#swfc -12 points for 2020-21. What does that points deduction mean for us then - and what could it mean for the future?

Below a thread looking into:

1) How does P&S work again?

2) What does it all mean?

3) How much can we spend now then? P&S, Profitability & Sustainability. The @EFL's version of UEFA's Financial Fair Play.

It means we cannot lose more than £39m in the current season and the two seasons before that combined.

At the end of 2019-20 that £39m limit was for the period July 2017 to June 2020.

How many points are #swfc likely to be deducted then?

A Championship club director and one club executive wants 12 and 21 points deducted from #swfc as per @TheAthleticUK (theathletic.com/1930889/2020/0…).

(Long) thread below.

tl;dr: 8 (@OwlsAlive-esque!) and we'd survive by 2 points. The independent Disciplinary Commission have concluded hearings and is expected to rule on Wednesday's case before the end of the season.

There's still reasonable hope we won't be deducted anything and fingers remain crossed that's the outcome. So, below, it's all hypothetical: