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Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas Profile picture
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
@pogourinchas
Chief Economist, International Monetary Fund
Jun 29, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
A thread:
[1/6] Many euro area countries implemented 'unconventional fiscal policies' in 2022. Designed to offset the energy crisis, but also to reduce inflation.

https://t.co/id4gFNEIWc https://t.co/Vr1HtkfTgg
ecb.europa.eu/pub/conference…
[2/6] This was viewed with some skepticism: the measures were costly, poorly targeted, could make the energy crisis worse, and could fuel aggregate demand, aggravating inflation pressures. But they could also reduce headline and the passthrough to core inflation. Did they?
Oct 17, 2022 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
The dollar’s value is at its highest level since 2000. It has appreciated 22% against the yen, 13% against the euro & 6% against emerging market currencies since January. @GitaGopinath & I just published a #IMFBlog on how countries should respond. bit.ly/3yGyrCV (1/9) Image Even though the appreciation is lower in emerging markets relative to advanced economies, the impact is larger, reflecting their higher import dependency & greater share of dollar-invoiced imports. bit.ly/3yGyrCV (2/9)
Mar 31, 2022 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
New IMF staff research “Labor Market Tightness in Advanced Economies” looks at the Great Resignation/Reshuffle puzzle in advanced economies. Here are some insights (1/n)
blogs.imf.org/2022/03/31/tig… Sharp rise in labor shortages in the UK & US labor markets, even though full employment is not back yet. (2/n) Image
Aug 30, 2021 • 25 tweets • 10 min read
I presented a new paper (with @skalemliozcan, Veronika Penciakova and Nick Sander) at the Jackson Hole conference on Friday. Paper and slides here: kansascityfed.org/research/jacks…. 1/N To put things in context, back in March 2020, I (and others) argued that we needed to act quickly, to 'flatten both the pandemic and recession curves'. 2/N
Mar 16, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
1/n We are entering a critical phase of the 'recession curve'.
Since Friday:
-Germany announced massive fiscal bazooka
-US FED announced massive monetary bazooka
But:
-massive scale of China slowdown revealed
-shutdowns are spreading fast in EU and US
2/n Financial markets are looking forward. They do not like what they see. Time is running out and the next few days are going to be critical.
Mar 13, 2020 • 22 tweets • 5 min read
N part thread on "Flattening the Pandemic and Recession Curves". Basic insight: just like public health officials talk about "flattening the pandemic curve," macro policy should aim to "flatten the recession curve". Details available here drive.google.com/file/d/1mwMDiP… 2/n Let's start with the pandemic curve. The issue is well discussed by now... Without containment, the pandemic would overwhelm the health care system (horizontal line), resulting in elevated fatality rate (red area). Containment measures delay the progression (blue curve). Image