FROM LINE-ITEM TO LUMPSUM

Here's another interesting tidbit on Malacanang's defense of the P211-M funds transferred to Sara Duterte's office: Marcos's ES Lucas Bersamin cited "Special Provision 1" under contingent funds as legal cover. That provision is a common provision for contingent funds placed in every budget. In fact, it's so common that in 2014 Greco Belgica questioned it before the Supreme Court when Bersamin was still a justice. elibrary.judiciary.gov.ph/thebookshelf/s…

The joke that is the Maharlkka Sovereign Wealth Fund.

In other countries, SWFs come from excess/windfall earnings of gov't or reserves. We are in freak**g deficit-- gov't is spending more than it generates revenues, our trade deficit is up, and our reserves are depleting. Instead, we on using hard earned pension contributions as the bulk of seed money. This is dangerous because of unclear goals of the SWF. Other countries with SWFs will have clear goals like preserve wealth for future generations, optimize earnings from windfall revenues, etc...

I've said this before: no matter how the elections would turn out to be come May will be interesting for our pollsters. Unlike 2016, Google analytics are diverging from trusted surveys and by a lot. If pollsters are to be believed, it should be a landslide win for Marcos but... it will be a diff. scenario if the results end up so close between No. 1 and No. 2. If Marcos wins by a slim margin, pollsters must take that as a cue to review their methodologies. More so when Leni wins. In both instances, these pollsters should be accountable to the public.

On Yolanda response: Co-authored a book chapter on humanitarian aid transparency (out soon) including how previous gov’t advocated for it in responding to Yolanda. Mechanisms were actually put in place and contrary to criticisms, funds were accounted for. One of which is FAiTH website, a repository of public, private donations coursed through gov’t during Yolanda. It was a good experiment that could have been improved esp. for a country like PH that gets billions in aid every year due to calamities. Sadly, it was stopped.

Looking into stories about Aquino’s legacy, I’m surprised none had touch on his fiscal policy. That, I believe, made everything possible: strong growth, declining poverty and unemployment, and even stronger institutions. His state budgeting is not without fault— underspending and DAP clearly come to mind— but I’ve seen his term as good context provider. Not because he was great, which is contestable, but because his govt broke an infamous cycle of bankruptcy and economic uncertainty.

2020 became the year when President Rodrigo Duterte created the most number of task forces under his watch. As his administration pursued its policy agenda and became beset by crises, task forces appeared to be the go-to solution of gov’t with few succeeses to show so far. The list above included the names of task forces and the chairs and vice-chairs of each.

Here’s what happened: gov’t laid out numerous targets (30,000 tests a day, 50,000, 2%, 3% of population) on varying timelines. This is a gov’t obsessed with time-bound goals— no matter how unrealistic— so you need to take them into account. The fact is never were those goals met. We were all closely watching instead as the Duterte gov’t tried so hard to justify its failures (from “redefining” mass testing) to pinning the blame on people who go out when cases rose (mobility data show otherwise). Yet to date, no. of tests have remained below target.

It’s been 2 months since Luzon was placed on lockdown, a measure meant to buy time to improve testing capabilities while preventing contagion. Amid reports of people going out after some slight lockdown easing, let’s look at what’s been done by gov’t with Bayanihan Act in effect. .@DBMgovph- Bayanihan allowed gov’t to reallocate funds to fund COVID-19 response. Data showed P350.42 billion was as of April 27. Officials raised concern budget limit of P4.1 trillion this year is putting it on tight spot, but also rejected a supplemental budget.

Shortly after ABS-CBN shutdown order,House legislative franchise committee said to summon NTC officials to explain why they should not be cited in contempt.

The speedy reaction was in contrast to committee dragging its feet on tackling the franchise renewal. #NoToABSCBNShutDown The Lower House, where franchise bills should emanate, had all the time in the world to deliberate on bills seeking to renew ABS-CBN’s license. These bills were filed since 2016, or even earlier, but lawmakers sat on them while President Duterte was attacking the network.

POGOs are not BPOs. Here are some differences:

1. @PEZA_PH Director-General Charito Plaza says BPOs may apply in PEZA ecozone to qualify for tax perks. “We don’t accept offshore gambling,” she said by phone. While some BPOs may process “administrative work” like “accounting” for POGOs, Plaza said those firms directly involved in actual betting in POGOs may not apply before PEZA.

THE DISSENTING VOICE OF FORMER @NEDAhq chief Ernesto Pernia:

Over the past three years and nine months, there were numerous times Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia went against government narrative, to feel the pulse of people as a development policymaker. In 2017, when the government was pushing hard for federalism, Pernia said a shift in government system would “wreak havoc” on the economy.

THE FAULTY AID COORDINATION SYSTEM (This will be long):

Interesting to see how Duterte gov’t tries to consolidate medical aid, donations received for COVID-19 response through Office of Civil Defense. The same thing was done during Yolanda via Foreign Aid Transparency Hub. But unlike FAiTH, Duterte’s aid consolidation efforts deal with physical donations, not money, which can actually spell the difference between a successful humanitarian aid coordination effort and those that fail.

This is a personal evaluation of events:

We’ve been following up on the story on gov’t funding and procurement in this time of COVID-19 crisis for nearly a month now and I’m telling you I’ve never been so confused until President Duterte spoke last night. Duterte spoke of a P200-billion package to help the poor only on the third week of the Luzon lockdown tonight, the same day when the Bureau of the Treasury said it had already received the P300-billion infusion from the BSP.

President Duterte ordered a lockdown of Metro Manila, the country’s center of business and commerce. How the lockdown will be implemented to prevent most people from leaving and coming in remains unclear, but it will sure impact workers. Here are some figures: In 2010, the latest year on which data is available, @PSAgovph recorded 2.86 million people who travel to and from other areas of residence, also called internal migration, for various reasons like work, family, etc.

Of that, 50.4% were considered long distance travelers.

President Rodrigo Duterte says income from POGO operations may be used to fund response to COVID-19. Some clarifications on how gov’t revenues are being spent. As a gov’t financial institution, @pagcorph is mandated to share 50% of its annual earnings to the national government. Last year, that amounted to P35.92 billion. Part of that earnings came from fees charged into POGOs.

On alter-egos:

President Duterte is seemingly acting on his own on making critical decisions as he approaches the end of his term. While during the first half of his term flip-flops on controversial policy decisions were typical, the second half is appearing quite the opposite. The President appears to no longer listen from his reasonable Cabinet members who were instrumental to changing his mind in key issues before.

The Duterte administration dangles legacy numbers during his first three and a half years. But there seems to be some problem on the numbers and how they were presented. First, the figures were supposed to be updated “as of Jan. 9” but some weren’t. Latest jobless data in the report, for instance, were as of Oct. 2019. Poverty figures are released every three years and latest one was as of 2018. So as of Jan. 9, 2020 misleads.

President Duterte suspends all PCSO gaming operations due to alleged corruption. There’s only one problem: the order effectively stops revenues for charity programs like medical and calamity assistance.

Part of earnings are also supposed to fund the universal healthcare law. Last year, retail earnings of PCSO for operating games reached P63.557bn, which were used to fund medical assistance, including out-patient programs, calamity subsidies, improvement of military and police health facilities, and fund support for gov’t hospitals.