Demand forecasting is critical for managing cash, preventing obsolete inventory, and not missing revenue

𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗟𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗨𝗽®️ 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗼 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝘄𝗲 𝗱𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀...𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘

QT, repost, comment, follow for DM





𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁

There are key considerations when creating a base forecast, such as using statistical models, promotional uplift, and incorporating market intelligence.

These elements combine to form a robust and adaptive forecasting foundation.

𝗣𝗥𝗜𝗩𝗔𝗧𝗘 𝗘𝗤𝗨𝗜𝗧𝗬 𝗟𝗕𝗢 𝗠𝗢𝗗𝗘𝗟 𝗜𝗡𝗢𝗥𝗚𝗔𝗡𝗖 𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗥𝗘𝗣𝗥𝗘𝗡𝗘𝗨𝗥𝗦𝗛𝗜𝗣

VCP + ROLL UP + waterfall

Everything you need to understand a buy out!

We will NEVER sell a course

First 500 to: Follow, like, repost, QT & COMMENT to get a auto DM copy 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗹
The Control tab is the nerve center of the LBO model, managing inputs and key assumptions.

It allows users to configure scenarios, set up parameters, and drive the entire model’s functionality, ensuring that the output reflects accurate and strategic decisions.

𝙐𝙇𝙏𝙄𝙈𝘼𝙏𝙀 𝙋𝙍𝙄𝙑𝘼𝙏𝙀 𝙀𝙌𝙐𝙄𝙏𝙔 𝘼𝙎𝙎𝙀𝙏 𝘿𝙄𝙇𝙄𝙂𝙀𝙉𝘾𝙀 𝙏𝙀𝙈𝙋𝙇𝘼𝙏𝙀 - 80 Slide Template

Like, COMMENT, Follow - so I can DM you - to get the full version

How to use guide below

(We put an awful color scheme on purpose... want to see your versions) 1/ When conducting due diligence on a private equity-backed asset, start with market definition: analyze revenue share by areas, key segments, and geography.

This step is crucial to understanding where the target stands in the market and identifying growth opportunities.

1/ 𝙈𝙊𝙎𝙏 𝙍𝙀𝙌𝙐𝙀𝙎𝙏𝙀𝘿 𝙋𝙇𝘼𝙔𝘽𝙊𝙊𝙆: 𝙕𝙀𝙍𝙊 𝘽𝘼𝙎𝙀𝘿 𝘽𝙐𝘿𝙂𝙀𝙏𝙄𝙉𝙂

The best use of ZBB is to make a cultural change

For the full playbook DM:

1. Comment ZBB & a question

2. Repost





𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘴𝘤𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘤𝘩 𝘦𝘢𝘤𝘩 𝘣𝘶𝘥𝘨𝘦𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘥, 𝘡𝘉𝘉 𝘦𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰 𝘥𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘳 𝘨𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘶𝘯𝘦𝘹𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥.

This method demands justification for every expense, pushing firms towards more disciplined spending. 2/

WORKING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM PLAYBOOK

There is going to be a great need for these capabilities over the next 5-7 Quarters

To receive the playbook by DM:

1. Comment - Liquidity & a question or thought on restructuring \ distressed

2. Follow

3. Repost 1/ Starting with a deep dive into working capital management

The first step? Understand the overarching importance of liquidity for stability and agility in the market. 2/

1/ Mergers in private equity are under scrutiny

The perception - and sometimes reality - is that PE firms are just duct-taping companies together.

We're going to be focusing on post merger integration over the next few weeks and our approach to interweaving companies
M&A is about more than numbers; they’re about merging cultures, systems, and visions.

Start by planning early during due diligence. Involve diverse teams for a thorough evaluation, ensuring their involvement in executing subsequent changes. Planning is the bedrock of success

1/ ASSOCIATE'S GUIDE TO BECOMING INDISPENSABLE TO YOUR VP

People often ask me "HOW TO GET PROMOTED"

You're thinking about it backwards... do these things below and they will take you by the hand and get it done for you!!

Reposting as it got deleted on 1/4

Also, she’s a muppet 2/ Understand their Goals--- they aren't always glaringly obvious

Know your VP’s priorities, targets, and pressures.

Align your work to support these objectives directly.

Be proactive in seeking clarity on expectations.

a.co/d/5as2q2T

1/ Unlocking Operational Excellence with Kanban!

Discover how this methodology transforms workflows, boosts productivity &ensures continuous improvement.

Stay tuned as we explore the core concepts and essential tools that make Kanban a game-changer!

Repost for deck!

2/ Overview of Kanban:

Kanban is a visual management method designed to optimize efficiency & foster continuous improvement.

By visualizing tasks on a Kanban board, teams can manage work in progress, identify bottlenecks, & enhance collaboration for operational excellence.

1/ Meet the insecure overachiever

@McKinsey molded this archetype, pulling high potentials into a high-pressure culture

But what happens when they leave the firm? They often pivot to influential roles elsewhere, their formative experiences acting as both a launchpad and a trap 2/ The insecure overachiever is polished and poised, the ideal candidate on paper.

Underneath, however, lies a constant battle with self-doubt.

Despite their successes, they're haunted by a single question: Am I good enough?

1/ WHEN DO I ENGAGE WITH MY MENTORS? HINT, IT'S NOT QUARTERLY

Navigating the mentorship landscape requires a strategic approach.

Identify key milestones early to ensure your career trajectory remains on target. 2/ ENGAGEMENT POINT 1: 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗠𝗶𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘀
Skill gaps are hidden stepping stones to success.

Proactively work with your mentor to identify these gaps and develop a targeted action plan to bridge them effectively, ensuring a more efficient development path.

1/ HOW TO RUN A FIT FOR PURPOSE DAILY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM - a 🧵

We designed this on the fly Monday and have been refining it all week

STOP BRAINSTORMING & TRY-STORM!

Would love to hear how you use DM in your orgs!

Please repost and share your thoughts

CC: @noac_mit 2/ ASSET BOARD - This focused on an asset level and how to triage each asset and who is lead Transformation Director

1/ BOOK LIST FOR JAMES THE GOAT @james_goat53509

Yesterday he asked me for a booklist for where he’s at in his career

He’s playing a dual role as a principal for sourcing while learning how to be an operator as a Sr. Associate

It’s not easy what he’s doing

Not in any order 2/ The First 90 Days: Proven Strategies for Getting Up to Speed Faster and Smarter, Updated and Expanded a.co/d/1Xle50u

1/ DEAL SCHOOL - OUT OF OUR 'BUY BOX' BUT INTERESTING - MANUFACTURING GEM

Normally I'd never invest for the upside case, but this business's recurring revenue is so stable that James did a "cashflow burn-off" model that gets us a decent return even if nothing else works! 2/ Market Position: We’re assessing if the company is just coasting along or if they’ve got the potential to outpace the competition.

They haven't invested in the Sales Engine... We are calling this a zero for that reason

1/ OPS MATH - PRODUCTION LEVELING

This is an esoteric topic, but one we use quite frequently

It's critical to be able to level load production when you are cutting costs OR growing revenue

Will DM you with space for tonight!

2/ Just-in-Time manufacturing pivots on precise scheduling, delivering products as needed.

Yet, the crux lies in matching variable customer demand without overcommitting resources—a tightrope walk balancing efficiency and responsiveness.

1/ OPS VP GUIDE - APPROACH ON DC TRANSFORMATION

PE firms tend not to worry about the DCs

This is a mistake... It's not just about making things... they have to reach the customers

Here is an overview of an approach we took.

There's no magic bullet to getting these done.

2/ Warehouse automation drives efficiency at scale.

Implementing high-tech solutions transforms DC operations, enabling growth without linear increases in labor—maximizing ROI and future-proofing business.

1/ BUILDING BUSINESS CASES THAT WIN - SR. ASSOCIATE PLAYBOOK

The IC just asked you "Should we really build another factory?"

Don't jump right into the model... sketch this out on a white board 2/ Building a winning business case starts with a clear understanding of the current situation.

Identify gaps, define objectives, and articulate the value proposition.

Success hinges on setting precise, measurable goals that align with strategic business outcomes.

1/ VP'S GUIDE TO DELEGATE LIKE A PRO!!

GLASS BALLS VS. RUBBER BALLS

Team - Someone found an error in the Matrix Brought up an interesting question

How do you know what can drop?

What should you delegate? sending this to graphics... clearly a rubber ball! 2/ In leadership, understanding what to delegate is crucial

Glass balls are your core values, mission-critical tasks that if dropped, shatter

Rubber balls are tasks that can bounce back, less critical, & suitable for delegation. Know the difference to keep your mission intact

1/ OPS IMPLEMENTATION CASE STUDY - 2 WEEKS IN A DC WITH JAMES THE GOAT

@james_goat53509 and I had a great time together

Here are the tools we used to get there!!

Join the finance and entrepreneurship community that doesn’t gate keep!

x.com/i/communities/…
@james_goat53509 2/ A 𝗱𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘆 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺 is not just a tool, it's a mindset.

Effective leaders use it to pivot quickly, making decisions based on current data.

Imagine the edge you gain when your strategy adapts in real-time to the operational landscape.

1/ FEE COMPRESSION IN PRIVATE EQUITY - IS THE ASSET CLASS IN TROUBLE?

Let's explore below

pitchbook.com/news/articles/…
2/ Private Equity fees are on a downward trajectory.

With increasing competition and more sophisticated LPs demanding better terms, the traditional 2-and-20 structure is becoming unsustainable.

Cost-efficiency will become a key differentiator for GPs.

1/ VPs GUIDE TO SOLVING THE TOUGHEST PROBLEMS

Sh!t will go wrong... you are not perfect... you will have to dig something out that you bought that was a mistake

You have to be able to think bottoms up to win!

HBS case studies will absolutely NOT get it done!

2/ Exploring classic tools for problem-solving? The 6W2H method shines by making relevant data visible.

1/ ASSOCIATE’S STATISTICS PRIMER - CALLING BULLSHIT

Read this book

Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World

Here’s a list of ways data can lie!

Enjoy!a.co/d/efBTcRX 2/ Misleading Data Visualization: Visuals can easily distort the truth.

Graphs with unlabeled axes or not starting from zero exaggerate trends or differences.

It's crucial to ensure clarity and honesty in data representation for accurate interpretation.