Love seeing the debate between @ElbridgeColby and @observingjapan on changes in Japanese security policy. I will take advantage of having feet in two worlds - 🇯🇵security and IR/security studies – to offer some perspective. 🧵 The 🇯🇵 world is amazed by Jpn's recent increases in defense activism & spending. Scholars understand how this departs from norms & postwar history, and observe at a micro level how the changes were possible. They’re right to be struck by these developments.

In a more dangerous Asia, Japan’s new nat’l security strategy outlines stunning changes. The doubling of defense spending breaks a long-standing norm (the 1% of GDP ceiling) that held for decades. Japan will leap from world’s ninth-largest defense spender…to third. 1/x Jse leaders have debated the legality of counterstrike (striking enemy territory if J absorbs missive attacks) since the 1950’s. It was considered power projection and therefore against J’s doctrine of “defensive defense.” Over the years the norm held…until now. 2/x

Lots of scholars, myself included, refute the common claim that Afghanistan has shattered US credibility in eyes of allies & adversaries. Good reasons for skepticism (see earlier 🧵) 1/n BUT: in my writing these days I argue that the US has a *growing credibility problem.* Namely, the credibility of American promises is eroding in E. Asia: China’s buildup is greatly reducing the US ability to flow forces into the region on behalf of allies in the event of war

I always enjoy Dreznerian rhetorical hand grenades...

https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1254457656124887040

I enjoyed Dan's essay. I agree that there is a lot of freaking out vis-a-vis China: misguided calls to veer from engagement to containment, and China-bashing as demonstrated in the NRSC report politico.com/news/2020/04/2…