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2/ Prometheus ETF Portfolio aims to allow everyday investors to access an investment solution that combines active macro alpha, passive beta, and strict risk control, all in an easy-to-follow, low-turnover solution. Thus far, we have been successful in generating these outcomes.
2/Employment & output are at odds. To understand what’s driving the gap between them, we examine each individually. We then reconstruct the gaps between spending & employment for major industries, allowing us to assess 1) what’s driving divergence, & 2) its sustainability
2/20 Like economic growth, inflation represents a mechanical framework that has more power than any specific definition.
2/ The exact measure & definition of growth are less important than conceptually understanding why growth matters to macro assets, i.e., stocks, bonds, commodities, constantly experience price changes to reflect ongoing shifts ..
2/ Let's start with GDP numbers. Our current GDP Nowcast currently shows a nominal GDP of about 5.3%, while real GDP accounts for about 2.5%. Not close to recessionary. 
2/ The labor market is dominant in driving variation in overall economic activity. While business cycle pressures may originate in other areas of the economy, the labor market is the ultimate transmission mechanism for cyclical conditions to aggregate spending and income...
2/4 However, upon zooming in we observe that most of this acceleration is attributable to current inventory dynamics which are volatile and not durable.
2/6 Over the last week, macro market rose in aggregate. Equities and gold rose significantly, bonds were modestly positive, and commodities fell significantly. 
2. Prometheus Asset Allocation:
2/ Let begin with the basics. The return on stock is equal to the return on cash, the dividend yield, and the price appreciation of the equity in excess of cash. Prices can appreciate because the expectations of earnings rise or investor simple allocate more risk to equities…
2/12 These strategies span equities, fixed income, and commodities, combined into a single portfolio accessible exclusively to Prometheus institutional clients. Beta is a risk parity combination of stocks, bonds, and commodities, where our process begins.
2/5 However, a reduction in the total number of hours worked posed a significant headwind. This was most prominent in the Construction sector. 
2/ This economic cycle has seen extremely strong income growth, so evaluating where we are in the income cycle is essential. The synopsis here is that economy has not gone into recession over the weekend.
2/ This set of circumstances is largely inconsistent with the archetypical progression of business cycles. Before we dive into our assessment of current conditions, we outline the mechanics that drive a typical recessionary process.
2/25 Our growth monitor continues to point to positive GDP conditions, though we have begun to see some weakness in our sequential tracking of conditions. 
2. Over the last week macro asset markets were flat in aggregate. Stocks showed the smoothest path of gains. Commodities and gold followed. Treasuries fell prey to concentrated losses. 
2. Re-Stocks: Risk control is imperative to maintaining continued exposure, particularly with the recent pricing of inflationary market regime odds.
2. There has been a modest increase in the inflation gauge. However, the level of these readings tells us that inflationary pressures remain muted, suggesting little change in the inflation outlook. 
2/ This month, sales were driven by a -3.37% change in production and a 4.66% change