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2. Re-Stocks: Risk control is imperative to maintaining continued exposure, particularly with the recent pricing of inflationary market regime odds.
2. There has been a modest increase in the inflation gauge. However, the level of these readings tells us that inflationary pressures remain muted, suggesting little change in the inflation outlook. 
2/ This month, sales were driven by a -3.37% change in production and a 4.66% change
2/16 For the latest data through April, our systems place Real GDP growth at 4.01% versus one year prior. Below, we show our monthly estimates of Real GDP relative to the official data: 
2/7 Over the last week macro asset markets fell in aggregate on a broad-based basis. Gold and commodities particularly saw a pullback this week. Stocks ended the week essentially flat, and bonds fell. 
2/20 While state spending is an important part of overall spending, federal spending tends to have a modestly higher variance than state spending. Federal spending also tends to respond more to macro conditions.
2/7 Recall liquidity is the flow of cash and cash-like assets that potentiates spending in the economy and markets. Every asset is exposed to liquidity risk. The less liquidity in the system, the more the drag on assets.
2/8 Over the last week macro asset markets rose in aggregate, with the gains skewed towards commodities and gold. Bonds also saw gains, breaking their recently negative correlation to commodities. 
2. Today, liquidity conditions are elevated but are increasingly likely to be in a topping process. Liquidity can come from three major sources: government, corporates, and intermediaries.
2. Using our systematic macro process, our strategy looks to add Alpha to assets in this diversified portfolio, by side-stepping negative macro regimes. To illustrate the value-add of our macro approach, we visualize the “implicit alpha” in our asset allocation strategy. 
1/ Over the last week, markets moved to price disinflationary outcomes, with the odds of falling growth rising. Inflationary pricing has now grown to dominate cross-asset pricing on a trending basis. 
2/ Before diving into our convulsions, we think it makes sense to share our mechanical understanding of how monetary and fiscal policy impact bond prices. 
2. We visualize this importance above by showing the contribution of manufacturing sector profits to aggregate corporate profits. As we can see above, manufacturing profits have already begun to weigh on the broader corporate profit picture.
2/ ...along with the composition of this supply, i.e., how many short-term securities (bills) versus long-term securities (coupons) will the Treasury use to finance government spending. Like any security, the price of Treasury securities is determined by supply and demand.
2/ Looking across economic activity, we continue to see extremely resilient conditions. Principally, nominal incomes continue to fuel nominal spending, which contributes or both GDP & profitability: 
2/ The Prometheus ETF Portfolio aims to allow everyday investors to access an investment solution that combines active macro alpha, passive beta, and strict risk control, all in an easy-to-follow, low-turnover model portfolio. The results speak for themselves: 
2/ Over almost every economic cycle, the Fed responds to high inflation by raising interest rates. The increase in these interest rates is pushed through the banking system and through asset prices to create a tightening of financial conditions...
2/ Th treasury has now extended the duration of its issuance while the Fed continues to keep interest rates elevated and roll off its balance. The combination of these pressures is a tightening of liquidity conditions. The mechanics of how these factors come together to paint...