#Russia's balance of payments for Q3 '25 show #exports down on '24 but only by 4%, at $304.5 bn.
Current a/c #surplus $30 billion, down by $19 bn, caused by rise in service #imports.
#Ukraine has current a/c #deficit of $25 bn on lower volumes of trade. Exports just $28 bn.
At a macro level, the most important number is the difference between exports and imports. #Russia has pulled in surpluses every year since 1999.
In any case, total volumes of #Russian trade also haven't really shifted since 2023 (2022 was a record year given oil prices).
Jul 2 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Time to rethink Russia sanctions?
Sanctions on Russia have been in place for 11 yrs, yet Russia's economy grew 3.6% in 2024, outpacing the Eurozone (0.9%) & UK (1.1%). With $39.5B trade surplus in early 2025, are sanctions really weakening Russia's war effort?
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Kaja Kallas claims sanctions cost Russia "tens of billions" & shrank its economy. But that doesn't seem to be true.
Russia's $680B reserves (up $80B since 2022) & consistent trade surpluses tell a different story. Sanctions haven't broken Russia’s export-led economic model.
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Jun 12 • 16 tweets • 2 min read
I have often said that the Strategic Defence Review would not significantly increase the size of the #BritishArmy Here's proof.
'we envisage an increase in the total number of Regular personnel when funding allows. This includes a small uplift in Army Regulars' p.18
A small increase in Britain's tiny army will have Vladimir Putin shaking in his boots.
Jun 9 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
#Labour U-turned on #winterfuelpayment after a backlash about freezing the elderly. Meanwhile, they pump billions flow into defence and Ukraine with zero scrutiny.
Is @Keir_Starmer completely clueless?
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Defence spending is ballooning to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 (£59.8bn in 2025/26), incl. £2.2bn extra for the MoD. Submarines, nuclear warheads, and “cutting-edge” tech get priority, but our NHS patients wait months and councils drown in debt. Guns over butter maybe?
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May 27 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Admiral Nelson once said, “I see no ships.” Today, he’d be right. The Royal Navy’s fleet is in a sorry state. With only one destroyer, two frigates, and one attack sub seaworthy to defend UK shores, General Sir Gwyn Jenkins steps into a tough job as First Sea Lord.
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Carrier Strike Group 25’s 8-month tour left UK waters near defenseless. One carrier, one destroyer, one frigate, one sub—that’s it. No new logistics ships until 2030. Nelson would weep. The Navy’s shrunk under cuts, and “efficiency” drives just make it smaller.
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May 19 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Keir Starmer’s been left out in the cold on Ukraine. Trump’s pushing peace talks with Putin, but when he briefed EU leaders today, Starmer wasn’t on the call. Why? His hawkish stance and tired sanctions threats have made him irrelevant.
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Starmer’s stuck to the old playbook: back Zelenskyy, push sanctions, and dream Ukraine can “win.” But Trump’s direct talks with Putin and Zelenskyy show the US wants results, not rhetoric. Starmer’s “coalition of the willing” delivered nothing but hot air.
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May 15 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Why are EU leaders shocked they’re sidelined in Russo-Ukraine talks? They’ve misread the balance of power, pushing terms they can’t enforce. @stevenjermy outlines war’s real drivers: industry, energy, geopolitics..
#ukrainewar #geopolitics #Strategy
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Mistake #1: Overrating GDP. Military power needs industry, not services. Russia outproduces US+EU+Ukraine in 155mm shells. Europe’s factories can’t compete.
