Good example of the happy talk around REEs and dependence on China going around. Easy to reduce dependence! Only single digit billions will do it! Let's take a look at reality here, rather than comments from people who have very little understanding of REE industry. Short🧵

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1911566991703609639

First of all, these kinds of takes rest on a host of assumptions about REEs, mining, processing, and product production. Most rest on very shaky ground, have no basis in reality, but clearly reflect a lot of wishful thinking. If those advocating decoupling with China contribute to the undermining of the US defense industry base, that would be bad, hence all the happy talk.

Export Control Framework for AI Diffusion
Nvidia pushes back on rule to control global shipments of advanced GPUs. Congress, industry trade group letters oppose new rule.
Short thread as administration prepares to release new rule, possibly Friday. 🧵reginfo.gov/public/do/view… As I previewed in December, the rule is highly consquential: "The new rule also conditions the supply of GPUs on the recipient’s willingness to implement restrictions on the access of Chinese persons and organizations to their restricted hardware on a worldwide basis. It remains unclear how the Commerce Department will implement and enforce this unprecedented package of extraterritorial rules, and how allies and non-allies will view the GPU country caps based on the Commerce Department metric “total processing performance” (TPP), rolled out for the first time in October 2023 as a new way to measure the computing power of advanced GPUs. The new rule targets computing power for the most advanced AI models, such as the next OpenAI platform GPT-5." thewirechina.com/2024/12/22/bid…

#USChinaTechColdWar The new year will see new moves from the outgoing Biden administration + new Trump administration in the export control space. A short look back on where we came from in 2024, focused on efficacy of export controls, and a look ahead to 2025. A thread🧵 First, as the year ended, a number of nuanced commentaries around the effectiveness of the controls came to the fore. Cracks have emerged in the Biden “small yard, high fence” approach to technology controls, as it became apparent that the yard was actually large, and the disruptions and collateral damage in the yard mounted over the year.

An interesting take on the “true impact of the impact of export controls on China and US semiconductor toolmakers”. However, the author makes a number of rookie mistakes in assessing China’s industrial policy and its effectiveness, and the impact on US toolmakers. A short thread. csis.org/analysis/true-… First, citing China’s Made in China 2025 initiative, the author asserts that “China always intended to remove foreign semiconductor manufacturing tools from its supply chains.” This is an often heard argument that fundamentally misunderstands how China’s industrial policies work, or don't.

The Sino-Dutch Export Control Dialogue and Government-Enterprise Exchange were held in Suzhou
A short thread. 🧵
"The two sides had in-depth exchanges on concerns in the field of export controls and agreed to further strengthen communication and cooperation
aqygzj.mofcom.gov.cn/gzdt/art/2024/… ,,,in this area, creating favorable conditions for bilateral industry collaboration, and jointly maintaining the stability of the semiconductor supply chain.”
Translation: the Chinese government again expressed its concern about any new alignment by the Dutch government with US unilateral controls. The Dutch government noted that it was uncomfortable with the US unilateral controls, but had recently released a licensing regime around some older lithography equipment and would adjudicate licenses on a case by case basis.

#ThirdPlenumTakes The Third Plenum Decisions document was heavy on S&T innovation, self-reliance, supply chains, etc. But understanding the complex and evolving relationship between the state and private sector will be key going forward. A short thread. 🧵

https://twitter.com/pstAsiatech/status/1815877149754114271

A lot of the commentary on the Third Plenum documents stress both the emphasis on the "new productive forces" and the clear nod to the role of the state backed part of the economy. The conclusion made by some is that the Third Plenum document merely reiterates that the state will guide and be in charge at all levels.

The US Commerce Department has apparently revoked some licenses for US semiconductor suppliers to Chinese technology giant Huawei. What is going on here? A short thread🧵
ft.com/content/cf9659… The FT story notes that some licenses granted by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) for Intel and Qualcomm to supply Huawei have been revoked, likely within the last few weeks. These are not public decisions or documents.

Much recent discussion of role of South Korean memory giants in “backfilling” for lost sales from Micron after CAC restrictions on firm’s products for domestic critical information infrastructure operators. What are the issues around this likely to be important? A thread.🧵 First, South Korean memory majors Samsung and SK Hynix are already under considerable pressure in China, where they both have major operations, cranking out significant amounts (40 percent) of their global DRAM and NAND production

Blinken Meets Xi as China and the U.S. Try to Ease Tensions - The New York Times nytimes.com/2023/06/18/wor… In his opening remarks at the meeting with Mr. Blinken, Mr. Xi hinted at China’s grievances, saying: “State-to-state interactions should always be based on mutual respect and sincerity. I hope that through this visit, Mr. Secretary, you will make more positive contributions to… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Opinion | Europeans and Asians don't see China like we do
Nio’s cars are designed in Munich. It has research and development centers in San Jose and Oxford, England, as well as in Beijing and Shanghai. It assembles vehicles in Hefei, China.
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/… Former British prime minister Gordon Brown explained the European dilemma. “Europe needs an industrial policy, but it cannot afford to mimic the [Biden] administration’s protectionism,” he told me. “For Europe, trade is vital; its prosperity is dependent on trade with the rest of… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

#ChinaComputePowerWatch Big....a thread 🧵
National Unified Computing Power and Network (NUPCN) Dispatch Platform Officially Released
NUPCN: designed for innovators/researchers to access computing power from data centers across China
mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xgSHMDrPAoDJ… The NUCPN DP is designed to implement the goals of the national East Data West Computing (EWDC) strategy. and "solve the problem of manageable, controllable and dispatchable computing power". China Telecom is working with CAICT to develop the platform.

This is very important piece. A short thread. 🧵
Japan’s proposed semiconductor export controls will cause unnecessary damage
globaltimes.cn/page/202305/12… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Wei is one of the most knowledgeable academics n China on the semiconductor industry, and understands the global industry well. He briefs senior leadership, including Xi, on semiconductor related issues. He also participates in many international industry meetings + conferences.

Speech by President von der Leyen at the European Parliament Plenary on the need for a coherent strategy for EU-China relations
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre… VDL: "Europe should develop an instrument on outbound investment for a very small number but very sensitive technologies. This will form part of a new Economic Security Strategy which the Commission will put forward in the coming months.”

@pstAsiatech: Great discussion of issues around Taiwan, also recommend excellent book by @ryanl_hass, @BonnieGlaser, and Richard Bush: US Taiwan Relations.
Observation: the future of Taiwan is now well beyond just US China Taiwan relations. It is now a global issue. (1/6) 🧵

https://twitter.com/pstAsiatech/status/1648312585912041472

Indeed, the Taiwan challenge now also centers on the future of the semiconductor industry, the global economy, and all associated industries. It is a strategic long-term challenge that may have a military challenge, but clearly no "military solution." (2/6)

#ChinaDataGovernanceWatch #NDA Guangdong explores data circulation transaction management: refining data broker review, and data asset registration taking into account safety and efficiency. A thread.🧵
m.21jingji.com/article/202304… Guangdong wants to lead in the implementation of December 2022 Party Central Committee blueprint for the data economy. Proposal for comment is for framework for data trading, as part of broader effort to leverage data as fifth factor of production.

Buying the Heartland

In total, Chinese-owned land makes up less than 1 percent of all foreign owned land in the U.S. and 0.03 percent of all total U.S. farmland, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
More like, buying fear... thewirechina.com/2023/04/16/buy… The perceived threat to the U.S. is also becoming more nebulous, evolving from espionage concerns to a vague fear that China is plotting to steal America’s food right from under its nose.

Japan finally released rules last week touted as aligning with US export controls released last year @ #October7Surprise. But Japanese rule did not mention China, and was far from a complete mirroring of the US controls. What is going on here? Well, its complicated. A thread.🧵 First, media reports continue to talk about a “three way agreement” btwn US, Japan, and the Netherlands. The Japanese rule release demonstrates that each country will release unilateral controls.

Recent announcements from the Dutch government and tool giant ASML suggest some forward movement on a so-called “trilateral agreement” that would see some alignment from the Netherland and Japan on the #October7ExportControls. What is going on here? A thread.🧵 Last week media reports suggested that the Dutch government was moving forward with some new controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment. reuters.com/technology/dut…

Who Benefits From Confrontation With China?
America’s increasingly confrontational posture toward China is a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy that warrants greater scrutiny and debate.
Understatement....
nytimes.com/2023/03/11/opi… "Rather than try to trip the competition, America should focus on figuring out how to run faster, for example through increased investments in education and basic scientific research."

China files diplomatic complaint: “We disapprove of the Dutch side’s interference through administrative means in the normal trade between Dutch and Chinese businesses and have made démarches to the Netherlands.

In recent years, the US, in an attempt to fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_6…… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… “It is understandable that countries want to preserve their technological and competitive edge, but it should be done through fair competition rather than deliberately politicizing and weaponizing trade and tech issues. "

Jude Blanchette joins Sinica to talk about the House Select Committee on China and how its focus on CCP as an “existential threat” adds up to an embarrassing moral panic that distracts from the serious issues the U.S. confronts when it comes to China. thechinaproject.com/2023/03/09/the… Blanchette on the first hearing: But what I saw was just an absolute and total embarrassment, where within about five minutes, I think I just looked at my wife, and we just both put our heads into our hands.