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🐐QuirkyLlama Profile picture
🐐QuirkyLlama
@quirkyllama
Carceral Urbanist. We mostly believe the things we do for reasons unrelated to our internal reasoning. Yes- I know that's one of our goats and not a llama.
Aug 4, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
I've always been disappointed by the Iraq War analysis. It doesn't grapple with the actual facts and proposes that Bush just went insane or something after 9/11.
But some simple analysis shows why we went to war. 1) Prior to 9/11, Bush hadn't cared about Iraq at all- he barely mentioned it during the campaign or in 8 months of the presidency.
Aug 15, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
If you want to know why CA had rolling blackouts yesterday- this graph explains it. The problem is renewables/solar.
At 7PM when demand was within a few % of daily peak, renewables produced about 3GW vs 11GW at their peak. Image This huge gap (8GW) needs to be filled by thermal (fossil) power. But it's uneconomical to have power plants which only run a few hours a few days per year. And PGE are forced by regulation to preferentially buy unreliable solar power.
Mar 6, 2019 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Can we judge the response to $TSLA's announcement of the SR & price cuts?
We now have data from TMC and the great @TroyTeslike so we can at least take a few stabs. TL;DR:
* Estimate 5-10K new orders since Feb 28.
* Estimate 9K SR+ shipments over next 4 months
* -$1000 GM on SR+
* Modelling AWD/P GM changes is hard as mix has shifted.
* Expect Mar to be 13-18K if they can ship SR+
Jan 27, 2019 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
Longish thread on the 75 battery pack.

When $TSLA cancelled the 75 battery packs, I'd assumed this was a nothing burger. they planned to introduce a new larger pack, and would roll it out once they'd sold of 75 inventory. As time has passed without a replacement, the change has become puzzling. However, with the recent layoffs and related reporting, I believe we can piece together the financial puzzle and make sense of this change.
Sep 24, 2018 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Thread: The Great TSLA MNPI Mystery- A Theory By QL

Mystery #1: It's been almost a year since any unplanned insider sales at Tesla. (The last was Dec 7)
This is highly unusual. Before we typical saw sales every few weeks, if not more frequently. 2/ Mystery #2: During this same period, $TSLA's balance sheet has become extremely ugly- massively negative working capital, even as they've cut back on critical CapEx. CapEx they need to develop the Semi & Y. Previously $TSLA had never been shy about raising.
Sep 22, 2018 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
The closer we get to end of Q3, the more I wonder what $TSLA's plan for Nov is.
All signs point to AWD backlog being exhausted by end of Oct. Steady state demand is something like 1-1.5k/wk. What's the plan for Nov? If the plan is EU, don't they need to open configs very soon? TMC reports typical production -> delivery time for EU is ~60 days. So if they started shipping cars today, first ones would be delivered Nov 22.
Jul 22, 2018 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Yesterday I promised some TSLA rumors. Turns out a friend-of-a-friend (let's call her Mary) is a TSLA Engineer. I haven't met Mary directly, this is all 2nd hand, but I trust my friend. 2/ I've obscured details which are very credible. This also generally confirms other rumors I've heard. But it is 2nd hand, so discount as you will.