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Rajit Profile picture
Rajit
@rajit_h
Communications & campaigns.
Nov 7 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
With accusations that Harris ran too right on economics or too left on culture, the internecine liberal post-mortem misses the point. It's not right vs. left. KH ran *establishment*. The primary contradiction in the current political conflict is populism vs. establishment. Populism isn’t about a textbook definition or aligning along a left-right spectrum. It’s about a leader convincing people they truly understand their struggles and are fighting for their interests, directly and personally. Struggles can be economic or cultural.
Jul 9 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
The problem with local Twitter's analysis of elections in France and the UK is that much of it consists of trying to map the ideology of parties in those countries with parties in LK; then force an analogy to predict what will happen in our Presidential elections. Instead, it's better to analyse what happened from a campaign strategy perspective. Whether NPP matches the French left in terms of ideology & polices isn't the point. The story in FR was about electoral alliances. We know the NPP has rejected any alliance at a party level.
Jun 2 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The only thing that matters in politics atm:

"agreement between Wickremesinghe and Basil was reached after the former had informed the latter that he could guarantee...as many as 25 SJB [MPs] defecting"

themorning.lk/articles/dnz3l…
However, it seems Wickremesinghe's number of 25 SJB MPs might be quite an overestimation on his part, given that the number of main Opposition MPs who have expressed interest in supporting the President currently stands at between 10-12. This is a two-stage election, and the outcome of stage two is contingent on stage one. The next step in the IMF bailout, inflation numbers, all the marketing in the world, are all relatively minor considerations in comparison to whether RW can break the SJB or not.
Aug 21, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I can't get over the size and growth of the "other" vote. Uncertainty and/or lack of choice, or is the polling not capturing an option many voters have in mind? One possibility: chatting with some friends last week, I described SF as "lurking with intent", & I'm increasingly certain there might be some momentum behind him. Aside from anecdotal info, this desire to “fix” corruption really got me thinking
Jul 31, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Making pro Ravi K statements is less about RK, and more about picking a side vs. Sagala. Those are two competing factions within the party, and with SR acting as the primary gatekeeper to RW (& his self-appointed successor), the factionalism is v. intense atm. You don’t need any special insight to know this, just pay attention to the news, & read between the lines. Related -- Lanza’s RW party does address a primary issue re. the next election. No SLPP MP wants to run in a campaign managed by either SR or RK.
Jul 29, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
"The UNP and SLPP have seen modest gains, but support for the UNP seems to be plateauing at one in ten likely voters, neck and neck with support for the SLPP." https://t.co/DT8oATxPZ6ihp.lk/news/pres_doc/…
The plateauing of support for the UNP is something I've been writing about since April. The small boost they got was very obviously stemming from a feel good buzz about the IMF bailout that was always going to be short-lived.
A tweet from April by me talking about the plateauing of support for the UNP/RW.
A tweet from April by me talking about the plateauing of optimism after a post-IMF boost.
May 29, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I think this fits in w' Aragalaya babies etc. as part of a law & order, moral panic. The pitch will be for a strong S-B PM, who can look after domestic societal issues, while leaving the out-of-touch Westernised Pres to handle the economy.
I've written before how RW has been able to win over former Rajapaksa voters, to create a new bloc whose shared ideological fantasy is that LK's greatness is being thwarted by economic issues. politicspolicymedia.com/2023/04/05/uni… The illusion that structure...
May 29, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Given some of the terrible takes (esp from the Ranilists), it’s worth stating that any result that has AKD/JVP as front-runners is good for RW. That allows him to position himself as the only viable candidate who can assemble a coalition to stop them.

Wickremesinghe can legitimately offer himself as the one person who can bring together what’s left of the MR base, together with SJB voters, and whatever RW voters that exist. SP can’t do this, because the Rajapaksas won’t back him.

Mar 20, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
There's a distinct Gramscian tinge to what the NPP are doing: "there can, and indeed must, be hegemonic activity even before the rise of power, and that one should not count only on the material force which power gives in order to exercise an effective leadership". Gramsci distinguishes between two types of power: coercive power (domination) and directive power (hegemony). A key element of a hegemonic strategy is forming links with existing elements of culture. People should be engaged at the level of the "national-popular culture".
Mar 17, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Proof the NPP/JVP have metamorphised into Bernie style Democratic Socialists: "a gap in voter enthusiasm with [the NPP's] supporters saying they are less likely to vote." newswire.lk/2023/03/16/ihp… Jests aside, if defecting/floating voters are consolidating around the NPP, then this is obviously hugely significant. The fuel/power angle is played out, and I don't think the signing of an IMF deal is going to shift this cohort. ihp.lk/publications/d… The fluctuations in support for the NPP/JVP indicate that it
Nov 18, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I did not see the pivot to LA coming. Yes: "I think voter participation rates are gonna go up in the near future, but it's gonna be because people are voting on who to punish." They're gonna be voting on who they want the government to h
May 14, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
We’re at an inflection point in Go Home Gota that made me revisit old blog posts. Some of my analysis was naive & optimistic, and there was a fragility of GHG that showed a greater parallel to Yahapalanaya than I thought. I suggested GHG knitted similar demands as Yahapalanaya, but with a vital point of differentiation: a rejection of existing political norms. I overestimated how embedded that was, especially in elements of the commentariat & other elites. politicspolicymedia.com/2022/04/11/yah….
May 11, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I'm continuously amused by how bad the comms are from *every* LK political party, of every ideological flavour, and every social/professional composition. The Rajapaksas were perhaps best at it, but are flat track bullies. Only good under specific circumstances. Among the problems, is the "too many people of uncertain status talking" issue. This is compounded by the fact these people have social media clout, though their role & authority levels are not clear to the audience.
Apr 25, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
An indication of Basil's true ability is his performance in three elections, & the current crisis. His successes came in 2009, when a majority of voters were high on post-war fervour, & 2019, when a majority were terrified & voting for the alleged security of fascism. His challenge in 2015 was Rajapaksa fatigue & with security not the primary issue. He dropped the ball badly. Now, with an unprecedented crisis, reports on his political strategies suggest he is hapless with those as he is with managing the economy.
Mar 17, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I was interested to see "spontaneously" used by Prof Uyangoda, which in movement politics, and especially in Marxist theory, is a loaded term particularly associated with Lenin & Rosa Luxembourg. I’m simplifying the “debate” but Lenin argued against spontaneism in “What Is to Be Done?”, arguing for a vanguard party that shapes spontaneous revolts in political thought & action.
marxists.org/archive/lenin/…
Mar 15, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I can see a difference between the months leading up to 2015, and these protests. Back then, it was disillusionment and the feeling a time had come to try something new. This, on the other hand, is a visceral & intense anger. Not sure how big is the protest, but these kinds of images are very important for campaigning. They project strength, momentum and legitimacy for the party concerned. Very important, especially when considering the repressive state apparatus faced.
Dec 6, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Despite being a long-standing critic of hers -- and someone who finds her valueless politics despicable -- I'm almost felt a degree of sympathy from the barrage of hit pieces being unleashed on Harris washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/… This piece from a former staffer has some devastating lines - "You can’t run the country if you can’t run your campaign,“ sfexaminer.com/news/a-heartbe…
Dec 3, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
No gas, no power. Only Omicron now. I mean even if you have money this seems a little preposterous. Image
Nov 2, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
The results of this survey depict a society on the verge of collapse: 30% of Republicans agreed with the statement “Because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country”. Around one in five agree with these three core tenets of the QAnon movement. One in four Republicans (26%) are QAnon believers. White evangelical Protestants are most likely to be QAnon believers (23%), followe by non-Christian religious Americans (21%) and other Christians (19%) Image
Jul 2, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This going to take some time to unpack: An additional 13 million people voted for Mr. Trump in 2020 than in 2016...Biden prevailed by making significant inroads among moderate or conservative constituencies.
nytimes.com/2021/06/30/us/… In my pre-election "Why Biden will win" post, I did emphasise the crucial role of suburban voters, who have moved away from the Republicans. politicspolicymedia.com/2020/11/02/why…
Jun 15, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
My 10 mins of listening to the crown prince suggests that if his father can deliver the traditional base, he'll win an election easily. He's good at being bland or pivoting when required & clearly knows how to deliver the required jargon and sound bites. I think he'll get the business community's backing too - continuity but also a breath of fresh air & w' a polish that will appeal to them. I also saw evidence for my long-standing assessment of him in terms of overall appeal.