The geopolitics of the AfD - THREAD 🧵

Fresh breakthroughs for Germany’s far-right

They say they’re in a long game towards national power

New DW film examines AfD blueprint for Germany’s future in the world

- Deep dive into policy docs
- Interviews w/ party leaders

Key findings 👇 1/x Geopolitics of the AfD 2/x

US TROOPS & NUCLEAR WEAPONS

- AfD “Grundsatzprogramm” from 2016 calls for US to pull out troops & nuclear weapons from Germany
- Leader Alice Weidel tells us she stands by this
- Says US & German interests “diametrically opposed”
- Accuses US of stoking conflicts

Zelenskyy criticises Chinese support for Russia 1/

- With China’s support for Russia, the war will last longer
- That's bad for the whole world
- It's also not good for China, which declares that it supports sovereignty and territorial integrity Zelenskyy criticises Chinese support for Russia 2/

- You cannot say you accept the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and at the same time support the aggressor
- If you do not take part in the peace summit, it means you won't help Ukraine stop the war

#SLD24

THREAD

DW interview with former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 has made some waves in Taiwan ahead of Saturday's election

All three candidates responded 🧵 1/

KMT's Hou You-yi distanced himself from Ma's comments and insisted he's not naive about Xi Jinping 👇 DW interview with Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 - reactions 2/

DPP candidate William Lai 賴清德 told me that he was for "peace through strength"

THREAD 1/
Former Taiwan Pres Ma Ying-jeou:

“You can never fight a war with the mainland. You can never win”

DW interview:

- Blames DPP for China tensions
- Rejects⬆️mil spending/conscription
- Doubts US wd aid Taiwan in an attack
- "Have to trust" Xi on cross-strait relations DW interview with Ma Ying-jeou 2/

Doubts US support in a Chinese invasion:

- “Don't think the US would (get) directly involved. They’d try everything to avoid it… It would lead to nuclear war.”
- Doubts Biden statements
- Doubts Tw could fend off an attack b4 help arrived

THREAD - 1/
Baerbock-Qin presser

Striking back & forth on the big issues

TAIWAN
Qin: Won't give an inch
Baerbock: Use of force "unacceptable"

UKRAINE
Q: Russian talking points
B: Why not tell Putin to stop?

RIGHTS
Q: No such thing as universal rights
B: Oh yes there are Baerbock-Qin presser 2/

BAERBOCK ON TAIWAN

- Destabilisation would have dramatic consequences for the world
- Especially for trading nation like Germany
- We recognise sensitivities & abide by our one-China policy
- But conflicts must be resolved peacefully
- Force unacceptable

THREAD
The Global South & the Ukraine War

Kenya’s President William Ruto speaks out:

“This is not about the North or the South. It's between what’s right & wrong”

- Condemns war + nuclear threats
- Calls on China to do more
- AND condemns West over neglect of Global South

/1 Kenyan President @WilliamsRuto on Russia/Belarus /2

- "Threat of nuclear deployment … puts many lives and maybe the globe at risk of a full-blown war"
- "This war is not de-escalating. In fact, if anything it's escalating"
- "More needs to be done to stem … existential threat"

Wang Yi at the Munich Security Conference
Key points - THREAD 🧵

Quick version: pulls no punches whatsoever, blames US for the state of the world

- Covid is contained but world is not safer
- Geopolitical rifts are widening
- Cold war mentality is back

/1 Wang Yi at #msc23 /2

- New types of threat - energy, food, climate, biosecurity, AI - keep emerging
- Standing at a critical juncture of history
- Human society must not repeat the path of antagonism, division, antagonism
- Fall into traps of zero sum game, war and conflict

German FM Baerbock at security forum in Delhi - THREAD

- Speaks of China building military structures on India's border - draws comparison to Russia-Ukraine
- Hails Modi message "this cannot be an era of war"
- Indian counterpart in audience

1/2 German foreign minister Baerbock at security forum in Delhi - /2

- Urges self-reflection in West over its lack of interest in conflicts elsewhere in the world
- Says all must learn lessons of dependencies of Russia, which made it difficult politically to take necessary steps

NEW
Germany’s Vice Chancellor says Berlin serious about China rethink

DW interview THREAD

- “We see the problem”
- Opposed Cosco Hamburg deal but approval “only way to get cabinet unity”
- “We have to diversify”
- Taiwan attack wd have “disastrous effect on the whole world”

/1 German Vice Chancellor Habeck interview on China /2

On Taiwan risk:

- Chinese attack would be “far more catastrophic” than Ukraine
- “Disastrous effect on the whole world”
- “I hope that China knows that the whole world is watching”

THREAD
Scholz Li presser just ended

Key points /1

SCHOLZ:
- China has responsibility for international security
- Expects China to use influence on Russia
- Xi and I are united that nuclear threats irresponsible, dangerous Scholz-Li presser - 2

Scholz:
- BioNTech vaccine getting approval for expats in China
- Must be first step
- Spoke about perspective for full approval in China
- Notes discussions in China of autarky in some areas
- Sanctions against EU lawmakers unacceptable for us

NOW
Guterres speaking at UN Security Council/1

- Deeply concerned by so-called “referenda” in areas of Ukraine not under govt control

- Any annexation of a state’s territory by another state resulting from threat or use of force is a violation of UN Charter & international law UN at UN Security Council/2

- Latest developments are dangerous and disturbing
- Idea of nuclear conflict, once unthinkable, has become a subject of debate
- This in itself is totally unacceptable

THREAD - exclusive

Taiwan FM Joseph Wu

- China “seems to be preparing for war”
- Breaches of median line in Taiwan Strait “trying to destroy the status quo”
- Chinese “coming so close … can create a very dangerous situation”

/1

Taiwan FM Joseph Wu /2

- ‘New normal’ China is pushing after Pelosi visit “a very tough situation for us”
- Drone intrusions over outlying islands “cognitive warfare” aimed at showing Taiwan soldiers as “incompetent”
- Ships approaching Taiwan “creating threat scenarios”

MINI THREAD
German foreign ministry on India's ongoing detention of journalist Mohammed Zubair

"India describes itself as the world’s largest democracy. So one can expect democratic values like freedom of expression and of the press to be given the necessary space there"
/1 German foreign ministry on detention of Mohammed Zubair /2

- Germany aware of this case
- Embassy "monitoring very closely"
- In contact with EU partners on the matter
- Importance of press freedom "also applies to India"

THREAD
What's going on with India's democracy?

Communal tensions intensifying further

- BJP officials accused of insulting Prophet
- Demolitions of Muslim-owned properties
- Hindu monk seen as anti-Muslim radical re-elected in India’s most populous state

1/ 🔊 PM Narendra Modi is accused of pushing an anti-Muslim agenda over 2 decades

- US denied him visa over deadly Gujarat riots of 2002 citing “severe violations of religious freedoms”
- UN called his Citizenship Amendment Act “fundamentally discriminatory” against Muslims

2/ 🔊

THREAD
China’s threat to India

The border dispute between China & India is widely underestimated in the outside world

It's dangerous:
- China claims an entire Indian state: Arunachal Pradesh
- Claim has similarities to Putin’s rationalisation of Ukraine invasion

1/ China’s threat to India
2/

The border dispute between China and India is dangerous

- Biggest land dispute in the world
- Deadly clashes of 2020 still unresolved
- India forced to boost troop numbers in crunch areas

@SushantSin explains key incursions in Ladakh