Regarding this $SMCI fiasco, here is the 8K SuperMicro themselves filed. Underlined in red is what their (former) accountant is willing to agree with.

This thread has been a long time coming, but I didn't want to write it. It is very clearly time. 🧵 In their own filing $SMCI is admitting that EY implies SMCI execs are cooking the books. I can't imagine EY is doing this lightly, this is going to hurt their prospects. Look at this statement from EY about specific sentences they agree with. Things did not go well.

Let me list the ways that this is a horrible idea by Intel $INTC, at least as described so far. It could be salvaged if employees get a huge amount of stock options and the dividend is getting cut along with it. 🧵

https://twitter.com/dylan522p/status/1620583960970682368

Outperforming employees & slacker coworkers both getting a pay cut. The demoralizing effect is magnified for the most effective workers, who aren't rewarded. Better to find & cull the slacker coworker & give outperformers a raise. $INTC saves more $$ & doesn't lose productivity.

I think I'll be on the sidelines for $AMD earnings this evening. Q4 is probably good on datacenter sales but I'm concerned about guidance. I think they might not give annual guidance, which won't help. If datacenter is strong enough nothing else matters.

https://twitter.com/realmemes6/status/1618993443858153472

Results for $AMD Q4 2022 are out, results as I expected, client revenues are bad but datacenter was strong enough to make up for it. But not strong enough to provide a really good Q1 guide. No annual guide yet. Market likes it for now, stock up to $78/share. I'm not a buyer here.

Wow AMD's new 7950X is double the chip of the 7700X and less than double the price. Usually you have to pay that extra premium for the top line stuff. I guess they have been doing this for a while, I never really thought about it before 🤔

Tweet thread analyzing SpaceX and TMobile $tmus announcement of cell phone coverage to be provided by starlink. Pertinent to AST Spacemobile $ASTS as they'll compete directly. Rumors about $GSAT too. I'm long $ASTS but halved my stake on Musk's tweet a couple days ago. 🧵 1/ Starlink satellites to provide reception to existing cell phones, in your pocket when you have no service. This requires new starlink v2 satellites that aren't built yet. They will be much larger with huge antennas and will use the starship for launch 2/

Can't believe I didn't see this until today. epsilontheory.com/taiwan-is-now-… @EpsilonTheory summed it up very succinctly > 2 years ago.

I'm going to make a 🧵 explaining how a very dumb thing could happen very soon that we will all care about very much and will make Ukraine a sideshow. China is starting military exercises around Taiwan today, extremely close to Taiwan. This is how the invasion of Ukraine started. Ukraine and the entire world were surprised even though it took months to move troops in. Because it was just an exercise. 2/

Trying to figure out how $KLIC managed to average $61.1/share for buybacks last quarter when their share price didn't go over $55. It's probably got to do with how their "accelerated repurchase" program works, but their share price went down below $38, even if they got screwed on the ASR you'd think they'd at least average down on the dips? 🙄

https://twitter.com/realmemes6/status/1509531724065112068

For ~6 months I've been hedging semiconductors w/ oil stocks. For reasons I don't entirely understand it's been almost a perfect hedge. News President Biden planning on releasing 180M barrels from the SPR inspires a thread on the SPR + some geopolitics 🧵
reuters.com/business/energ… It's a continuation on the 30M barrel release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (+ 30M barrels from partners) from a few weeks ago, which itself is a continuation of 50M barrels from November. It keeps the status quo instead of reducing supply. World consumes ~100M barrels/day

I'm going through some stuff, don't have much energy to put into a well thought out thread here. But you all need to think about this tweet a bit. This, in my opinion, was the money tweet from my TSMC earnings call thread. Do you see what I'm seeing?

https://twitter.com/realmemes6/status/1448546651384303616

And then there was this one, which I've been saying over and over. Here's the logic: Price per transistor is not dropping. We need more transistors. As long as these 2 things remain true an increasing amount of money will flow into semiconductor industry.

https://twitter.com/realmemes6/status/1448541831046832130

It's like CC Wei has been sharing my brain. $TSM TSMC Q3 earnings.
Structural demand continues to grow! Tons of stuff from TSMC earnings call, all bullish IMO. Great question from Goldman Sachs: Lot of noise says inventory raising at customers. But foundries say demand keeps growing. What is missing?

Intel $INTC will continue to use third party fabs in addition to its own fabs, including outsourcing desktop and server CPUs. They are also rebooting themselves as a foundry for others. They did this before and screwed clients over (think Nokia and Ericsson) by not delivering. I imagine this time they will focus on selling capacity they already have instead of future leading edge nodes?

TSMC $TSM projecting capital expenses of 25-28B USD in 2021. 80% allocated for advanced process tech, 3, 5, 7nm. 10% advanced packaging and mask making, 10% other. 2020 capex, originally slated at $15B, was over $17B. For context $AMD's entire revenue for 2020 estimated at $9.5B Management sees a growing market and TSMC growing faster than the market, with a 2020-2025 CAGR of 10-15%. In 2019 capex was initially estimated at $10-11B and then revised up to $15B. They are expanding fast, and newer nodes are more capital intensive.

A break from my regular $AMD coverage. I’ve been looking at $ACEV for a while and I like it, it’s now my 2nd largest holding. It’s a SPAC. If you've heard that but haven't learned about them, overdue to learn. They can be good in this market, with downside protection until merger $ACEV is taking Achronix public. Achronix is an FPGA company that’s been around for a while. Much smaller than Altera (acquired by Intel) and Xilinx (being acquired by AMD), it is arguably the last independent high performance FPGA company.

AMD CES 2021 thread.
15 minutes in:
✅ hype video with no substance
✅ video about how AMD is helping solve the trending problem of our day
✅ technology is changing the way we live and work
✅ Interviews about all the above with clients
❌ Technical information I wonder after a career spent in Intel's shadow, the instinct as soon as success and money comes is to be like Intel. And Intel is trying to be like Apple. Don't do it!!

Be nerdy engineers please, I'll take "boring execution", thank you very much.

$AMD at new all time highs today before CES prez tomorrow. Lots of leaks about Zen 3 based APUs. Last year no one was ready for how good AMD's laptop chips were, not a lot of models to buy. This year AMD won't be able to fab enough chips to meet demand.

https://twitter.com/LisaSu/status/1348631074096754693

Also, new mobile GPUs, Milan server CPUs, desktop APUs, and a new threadripper are due for launches. (Not saying that will happen during CES)

AMD on TSMC N7 has node parity with Intel's best and node advantage over Nvidia. AMD will especially benefit in lower power products.

OK, $AMD financial day megathread. They are releasing their financial outlook for the next 4-5 years (!!)

I'll put my thoughts in this thread, presentation is at ir.amd.com/events/event-d… This is AMD's estimated TAM, $79 Billion. Lisa Su says this is ~2023 timeframe

On this last day of 2019, grab a cocoa and let’s do some Fermi approximations to figure out how much of TSMC’s 7nm (N7 node) production AMD is using, as of Q3 2019. See what-if.xkcd.com/84/ for an explanation, and xkcd.com/2205/ for an example. In response to

https://twitter.com/IanCutress/status/1211716342602227713

. Assumptions need to be reasonable, but don’t need to be exact. Let’s assume 7nm chips sold in Q4 were mostly fabbed in Q3. In Q4 AMD revenue is forecast to be $2.2 Billion USD. Let’s gather relevant info about the sources of AMDs revenue.