🇵🇸 Serial has been. Those who can, do.
From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free.
I watched in silence.
I saw all who saw nothing.
Sep 19 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
SWIFT MT 103. Foreign Currency Wire Transfers.
A single customer credit transfer made on the SWIFT network.
The bane of remittance/ free lancer / tech founder challenge across banking sector in Pakistan. More so for small businesses / founders that receive sub $ 1,000 wires.
Once upon a time in a different life we wrote, ran and supported treasury systems that generated MT 103 messages for local banks.
Given how treasuries front / back offices are structured and how all $ payments are consolidated and cleared via NYC, workflow was simple.
Feb 28 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
If you work with risk, insurance, trading or pricing, loss distributions are a key concept.
Traditional or introductory statistics courses don't have time to do justice to them.
We took a deep dive with automobile claims data (80,000 rows) in the ADA course.
With insurance models we are interested in two key parameters.
a) Frequency - the likelihood or probability of a claim.
b) Severity - the size of a claim, when a claim occurs.
Loss distributions focus on b).
If a claim occurs how big or bad is it likely to be?
Nov 12, 2022 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
How do you encourage or foster creativity?
Cross pollination and collaboration of ideas from different worlds and backgrounds?
We learn more when we
a) Work with individuals and teams with different perspectives.
b) Remove crutches that we use without thinking about them.
How would you design a high fidelity prototype for a game without using technology or standard art?
You level the playing field in one stroke. No developer, artist or designer would have an edge.
Middle class? All the work we have done on this subject in the last year and I finally found the right definition yesterday.
The class in our society where mothers eat two day old left over food and children think they do so because they like it.
That is my mom.
Three layers given the feedback so far.
Upper middle class. Everyone eats food cooked the same day.
Middle middle class. Mother eat two day old food for dinner.
Lower middle class. Mothers skip dinner. Period.
Jun 29, 2022 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
Notes from my chat on non-academic perspectives at @ibakarachi faculty retreat, covering our needs as founders, parents, dreamers and teachers from academia.
Learned a great deal about outlook and teaching philosophy across the 2 day faculty retreat hosted by @EDIBAKarachi.
As founders, talent we seek should be comfortable with taking risks, making mistakes and recovering from unexpected shocks.
Mechanics and process are important but intuition is more valuable.
You builds intuition by being wrong. Academic assessment rewards you for being right.
May 26, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I don't have any pictures together from our days in New York.
I had work, out of city, was mostly broke and missed my graduation ceremony.
Because billable hours were more important.
Same for Broadway plays or a long run, Riverside.
At 29, I didn't think it mattered.
Don't get me wrong. It wasn't a hard life. I did what I wanted to do.
I read oodles of papers hidden in the stacks. Spent hours modeling Excel in breakout rooms. Placed limit orders for trades at 4 am.
Discovered tapas on Amsterdam, Matrix and Episode One in all their glory.
May 26, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
As a founder who lived through '00 dot com and '08 GFC crashes I only have one advise for fellow founders in Q2 '22.
Do not take personal or credit card debt to cover payroll or office expenses.
You either have the cash or you don't. Don't get creative with basics.
I know you are sharper, smarter, more driven and hard working than I was.
It will take you maybe a third of the time it took me to do things. So here is a metric.
It took me 10 years to pay down my '00 debt. I am still paying down my '08 one.
1/3 * 14 years. Not really fun.
May 24, 2022 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
3 separate founder conversations today.
At 8:30 am. Please don't drink the Kool-Aid. Build value / deliver it before you can/will raise. Also don't count on it.
At 9:00 am. Never take anything I say or do at face value.
At noon. Investors don't owe you anything. Neither do you
The real world we live in is more interesting and revealing than the world we observe on Twitter.
Some stuff we see here is make belief. It will never happen to/for us.
Some is posturing. Some is real.
Some is out right psychosis. You need to build your own truth filters.
May 8, 2022 • 27 tweets • 7 min read
Understanding valuations in a down market for founders in Pakistan. On request.
Markets are not static. Valuations are not isolated calls. They depend on context. Understand the context.
Here is a simplified guide to the math behind valuation models.
There are 6 primary factors that control fund investment valuation models
1. Expected future payoff
2. Founder + Team credibility
3. Opportunity cost. Discount rate.
4. Future dilution. Additional rounds
5. Likely consumer traction
6. Stage of Economic cycle
May 7, 2022 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
A thread on tech demos. On request.
I follow the Sun Tzu school of demos.
Best demo are the ones not given.
For context I sold risk software to banking industry for 15 years.
Always focused on solution design, data requirements and regulatory approvals for models.
To be fair, we almost always did a demo but we avoided them in first meetings.
The first meeting was all about discovery. We set expectations on day one.
We will not be doing a demo. Our expert needs to understand your needs. Once understood, a demo will be arranged/done.
May 7, 2022 • 22 tweets • 6 min read
In Jan 1999, as a fob founder I raised $250,000 from an incubator in Orange County, California.
What started off as an offbeat Christmas eve conversation set the tone for 23 years of my life.
A short thread on funding game across 2 decades and what happens when the music stops.
First, things that haven't changed across 20 years.
Connections. Worked in '99. Still work in '22.
It is easiest to raise from investors who know of you or know someone you know.