A risk manager's perspective on Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.
Say if you're making full preparations for a systematic risk with a rather low probability but tremendous consequences, what you need to develop first is a framework that contains various scenarios, especially the
worst case. Then you cascade it down to base case scenario and calculate probability and severity accordingly, and make adjustments when changes in reality are observed and assessed. You ought to keep closely watching the situation and be agile to adapt when situations are fluid