what the polls say is the most likely option is that there is a seismic realignment of young and minority voters in favor of donald trump (not against joe biden) on his third run, while joe biden holds his 2020 numbers among what have traditionally been swing demographics.

https://twitter.com/n_deitcher/status/1812987619396960593

if this is the case, and i do not think this will be the case, then there is no reason to expect that the voters who will be voting for donald trump for the first time (most of whom did not vote in 2022 or 2020) will be movement conservatives who do not split their ticket.

doing experiments important stag information

the problem israel has, which yael fails to identify, is that there is essentially no party in israel whose policies on issues of public concern differs (from an external perespective) from netanyahu's. since the death of labor there are only varying shades of right-wing.

https://twitter.com/Yair_Rosenberg/status/1666969455912419328

like, is yair lapid plausibly a centrist. i mean, sure, i guess. but he doesn't take power without bennett, who is just sort of a moronic right-wing huckster with monstrous views on the occupation.

this is an extremely common view in tech. views extend from "this is nothing (nonsense)" to "this is god (much worse nonsense)," but the people in the middle who do not believe that the terms are even adequately defined have very little to say and are typically ignored.

https://twitter.com/vanderhoofy/status/1656715496421457927

i believe that the position that @mmitchell_ai or @mer__edith has staked out on LLMs is justified by the state of the evidence yet (i do not believe that a conclusion is justified), but it is certainly more reasonable than the MIRI position or even, for that matter, Sam Altman's.

the success of the scratchpad method is empirical disproof of this idea.

https://twitter.com/ylecun/status/1640122342570336267

if (1-e)^n, then any method which extends the length of the context vector will tend to reduce the accuracy of the prediction. we find the opposite,

least deranged left-nimby

https://twitter.com/BobBrigham/status/1641216487628369920

there are only like five left-nimby guys but literally every last one of them spends all their time on the most deranged online activity conceivable

this is possibly not among the initial applications considered for partial differential equations just extremely weird that if you go poking around in the corners of a model trained for something else entirely you will find this stuff

me reading ur tweets

golem in the ibul mountains abandoned gantry by glacial lake

bug hat

got some interest in my TTRPG settings, so i'll make a thread of stuff i created for them: weird neoplatonist fantasy about the invasion of afghanistan, set in the aftermath of a foreign invasion of an incredibly dysfunctional imperial core which is now very much on the periphery
docs.google.com/document/d/1DQ…

there is nothing which a neural net produces which is more valuable to a car than being able to decide not to hit a wall within 12ms, although to be fair "not slamming into stationary objects at highway speed and burning you alive" is not a self-driving feature tesla offers

https://twitter.com/ItIsFinch/status/1622709069160017920

there is a reason that your reflexes don't make a full round-trip to the frontal lobe before they decide what to do, and that's that deciding what to do has latency and aborting putting your hand on a hot plate because pain receptor said no does not

coming to ur house petting ur dog