A few general comments watching the analysis of a deal no one has seen.

First, comparisons to the JCPOA are fundamentally wrong because of the state of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs after both Midnight Hammer and Epic Fury. We are in a very different reality today. Second, if the strait opens without tolls or extortion payments (e.g. escrow account access or sanctions waivers), which is what today’s backgrounder claimed, and regime then gives up all enriched uranium while having no enrichment program, that would be an extraordinary victory.

Let's take this piece by piece if you really want to have this fight. And I'll try to be as fair as possible to the record, which was not bad 100% of the time, and in fact was quite good for a few weeks in the immediate aftermath of 10/7.

https://twitter.com/amoshochstein/status/2016275381263700106

10/7 didn't happen in a vacuum. Plenty of blame to go around. IDF failures top among them. But Iran didn't launch a seven-front war and invent a ring of fire around Israel out of nowhere. The policy of appeasement from January 20, 2021 until October 7, 2023 (and beyond) matters.

The UN’s Hunger Games in Gaza Are Being Exposed

We started the week learning that the Reuters/CNN story on Hamas not diverting aid was based on a fabrication. In fact, USAID internal briefings said no such thing.

As the week went on, we learned that the IPC had quietly changed its own guidelines to make it easier to declare a famine in Gaza - because there is no famine in Gaza and the IPC can’t meet its own threshold for such a declaration.

We end the week with news of an international aid worker blowing the whistle to the USAID inspector general that UN agencies, including the World Food Programme and UN OCHA, are inhibiting the distribution of aid through their unwillingness to coordinate with the IDF - possibly by order of the UN Secretary General himself. I can personally attest I have heard this last claim from three high-level sources close to the Guterres orbit - that the SG has directed all UN agencies to try to collapse GHF and any aid paradigm that excludes Hamas front UNRWA.

The “Israel is starving Palestinians” narrative is one of the greatest frauds ever perpetrated - and all while using (really abusing) our taxpayer money.

As I told Fox News today:

“The U.N. is playing hunger games with the people of Gaza to drive a crisis, try to get the GHF to fail and resuscitate UNRWA as the dominant aid facilitator. We are talking about an enormous amount of taxpayer money being provided to WFP and the U.N. writ large with an expectation that aid be delivered in coordination with Israel. 

“The allegations here suggest a directive from the Secretary General himself across the U.N. system to cause aid disruptions for the benefit of Hamas, which would be the biggest U.N. scandal since oil for food.

“Secretary Rubio would be more than justified in calling the Secretary General and telling him that the U.N. won’t get another dime from U.S. taxpayers unless he submits to an independent investigation and orders all agencies to cooperate with Israel.”

I will add one more suggestion to the administration: Designate UNRWA as a terrorist entity, which it is, and make it clear to everyone that terror front is never coming back to Gaza. End the UN Hunger Games without delay. Reuters/CNN aid story was bogus. Source:

https://twitter.com/rich_goldberg/status/1955242172221100171

The regime in Iran was almost broke. Then Biden-Harris pumped the regime full of cash in pursuit of another nuclear deal. Still don't believe it's true? These are estimates from the Biden-Harris administration itself, just released as mandated by Congress. 2019 (waivers end in May): Iran gets $28 billion in revenue

2020 (max pressure): Iran gets $16 billion

2021 (Biden-Harris ease sanctions): Iran gets $37 billion

2022 (Biden-Harris ease sanctions more): Iran gets $54 billion

2023 (Appeasement continues): Iran gets $53 billion

10 Things Washington Should Do to Hold Hamas Accountable

🧵 to help guide policymakers fdd.org/analysis/2024/… 1. Hamas leadership: Support Israel’s campaign to kill or capture Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and other Hamas leaders at large, both inside and outside Gaza.
This support starts with recently unsealed Justice Department indictments for the murder and hostage-taking of Americans but continues with demands made of countries like Qatar, Turkey, and Lebanon for extraditions, and an advertising campaign in Gaza offering a very large reward for information leading to the capture or death of Yahya Sinwar. The United States should also make clear to all countries that it supports Israeli efforts to kill or capture Hamas officials wherever they reside.

The notion that ICC threats would or should influence Israeli decision making on Rafah or a hostage deal is absurd.

Karim Khan is on notice that the world forever changes for him and the ICC if he proceeds. Tokyo, Berlin and other top donors to the ICC are on notice as well. There is intense diplomacy taking place to help the ICC understand what will happen to its relationship with the US. Germany and Japan understand the future of the ICC will no longer be certain. This is playing out independent of decisions on Rafah and the hostage negotiations.

“Josh Paul leaves Biden administration for DAWN, which supports BDS and calls Israel an apartheid state”

This is not hard to piece together folks. The documents will not stand up to scrutiny once we have a full and honest public debate about what DAWN is. jewishinsider.com/2024/02/josh-p… “A recent ProPublica report documented that despite recommendations of the State Department's "Leahy Vetting Forum" to sanction Israeli military units, including one unit whose abuses DAWN documented, Secretary Blinken has acted alone in refusing to impose the legally required, non-discretionary sanctions.” dawnmena.org/secretary-of-s…

The outrage isn't that Israel is finally calling out Qatar as a state sponsor of Hamas that is responsible for the hostages. The outrage is that it took more than 100 days for it to happen. And that the White House is still covering for Doha. Pressure on Qatar long overdue.

https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1750238108434506122

Qatar's sleazy scheme began within hours of 10/7. Reaching out to the US to offer support to get hostages back. Activating its influence network in the US and Israel. A Qatari-funded NGO serving as senior advisor for strategy for Hostage HQ -- even right now. This has to end.

Northwestern President’s “Advisory Committee on Preventing Antisemitism and Hate” launches with clear intent to block any recognition of antisemitism at the university. The co-chair and membership make that clear. This is absurd. northwestern.edu/leadership-not… Meet this helpful member of the committee, an activist in the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement: canarymission.org/professor/Jess…

Tonight’s provably false statement from @NorthwesternU responding to a new campaign calling on the university to combat antisemitism: These are outlandish claims not based on facts, including the claim that “student and faculty groups ‘resoundingly support’ Hamas Terrorism.”

👇

https://twitter.com/zach_kessel/status/1711463029198532673

From the Northwestern Students for Justice in Palestine Instagram:

Here's a thread to respond to each misleading claim just issued by the National Security Council in attempt to conceal its $10 billion sanctions waiver for Iran, which is likely tied to a still unacknowledged nuclear deal that evades mandatory Congressional review requirements.

https://twitter.com/NSC_Spox/status/1725532147765670072

Myth: "This was the 21st time the U.S. government approved this waiver, continuing a practice that began under the Trump Administration.  It does not represent any changes in our policy regarding Iran or Iraq."

Facts: This is the second time the U.S. government has approved THIS waiver. The first time was in July and Biden had the chance to stop this sanctions relief after October 7. He chose to keep the sanctions relief flowing. The Trump administration did not issue THIS waiver. The prior policy was to trap Iraqi payments in escrow in Baghdad. This is a major policy change allowing Iran to convert Iraqi dinars into euros and move the money to third countries for broad-based budget support purposes.

ICYMI: Hamas Uses Gaza Hospital as Headquarters fdd.org/analysis/2023/… ICYMI: Hamas Uses Hospital as Terror Command Center, Israel Says fdd.org/analysis/2023/…

This is an administration completely twisted in knots. Blinken's speech is all over the place. I can't tell if the policy is to support the destruction of Hamas or to undermine that objective. Blinken blames Hamas for using human shields then pivots to reward the practice of using human shields - letting Hamas know it works and will lead to pressure on Israel. Blinken says more aid is needed for Gaza, but then admits Hamas is stealing the aid.

What about the other $10 billion from Iraq/Oman?

What about the oil sanctions non-enforcement?

https://twitter.com/andrewdesiderio/status/1712474791675150732

Waiver issued in July to allow Iran to move $10+ billion frozen funds out of Iraq to third country reported by @Reuters reuters.com/business/energ…

Some 101 for those suddenly trading oil on speculation of an Iran nuclear deal. The Biden administration is already tacitly allowing Iran to export 1 million bpd by failing to enforce US sanctions. Authorizing the licit purchase of another million bpd, however, requires a waiver. US sanctions on Iran's oil exports are statutory. Thus, promising Iran a waiver for oil exports tied to nuclear concessions by Iran triggers a law called the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA), which prohibits the waiver for 30 days pending Congressional review.

As Iran Deal talks restart, Rob Malley is counting on everyone in Washington having fallen asleep at the wheel over the last few weeks, forgetting the details of a horrible deal already on the table. Here's a reminder of some major problems Malley will try to ignore. 🧵 President Biden says the IRGC Quds Force is a terrorist organization. But Malley is offering to lift terrorism sanctions on the group's top financiers. Congress should declare it will reimpose any and all IRGC-connected sanctions that are lifted in a deal. wsj.com/articles/foil-…

A lot of ink being spilled over Saudi Arabia ignoring White House requests to increase oil production. The contrast to the close coordination between the Trump administration and Riyadh in 2019 in stabilizing the market when Trump ended Iran oil sanctions waivers is striking. 1/ The US-Saudi relationship historically, albeit with certain exception, was built on the concept of oil for security. Saudi swings to stabilize the market when needed and the US provides security guarantees to defend Saudi Arabia. 2/

The Biden administration is having great difficulty spinning why it is offering to lift terrorism sanctions on Iran when everyone from @BarackObama to @POTUS to @SecBlinken told the American people the US is allowed to keep terrorism sanctions on Iran during JCPOA. The Obama White House in 2015: "Authorities will remain in place to allow the U.S. government to target Iran’s support for terrorism. For example, Executive Order 13224, a broad terrorism authority...would be retained under the JCPOA." obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/…

As Iran announces it will halt complementary access requests by the International Atomic Energy Agency under the Additional Protocol, let's remember that Iran was already in breach of its AP commitment last year during a stand-off over undeclared nuclear sites. Short thread. The media focuses a lot on what we can see Iran doing: enrichment. What Iran wants us to see for their own extortion strategy to gain sanctions relief without giving up its nuclear ambitions. It's time to focus on what we don't see - what Iran doesn't want us to see or to learn.

And here we go. Biden just reversed US policy and endorsed: an Iranian enrichment program, nuclear sunsets, nuclear-capable missile testing and Iran's import of advanced conventional weapons from Russia and China. The move raises a number of questions. reuters.com/article/us-ira… Executive Order 13949 threatens sanctions against persons who attempt to transfer arms to Iran. It is the unilateral imposition of an arms embargo on Iran via US secondary sanctions in the absence of consensus over UN snapback. Is Biden planning to rescind or not enforce it now?

Notable how the Biden administration is going out of its way to avoid using even the most veiled of military threats like "we will never allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons." True for the nuclear file; true last night after attack on US forces. Dangerous projection of weakness.

https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1360721056034656259

Thursday's press briefing...
Q: Obama used to say before JCPOA that it was unacceptable for Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon, explicitly ruled out containment of a nuclear Iran as a policy option & reserved all options to prevent Iran from obtaining a bomb. state.gov/briefings/depa…