1/6

FTX has estimated it will return ~$14.7B-$16.5B to repay creditors, enough to pay customers >118% of the value in their accounts as of Nov 2022.

Despite the large AUM of the FTX estate however, it's unlikely we will see >$3B return to crypto.

Will share my methodology: There has been a very active claims market for FTX accounts, whereby distressed credit funds will purchases the rights to a users bankruptcy claim.

The week after FTX stopped withdrawals, claims were being traded for as little as 5 cents on the dollar.

As more information about the bankruptcy came to light, more assets were found & FTX ventures VC investments payed off (Led Anthropic seed round, Sui investment & the SOL rally), the bids on these claims gradually rised.

Right now bid / ask is sitting well over 100% of the Nov 2022 value of an account, granted if they were holding crypto they could still be down substantially in native coins.

1/5

This cycle has been characterised by the hot ball of money flowing between sectors vs PvE mode we saw at points in prev cycles & so you have to constantly ask who the margin buyer is / where that flow will come from.

A thread on who the HYPE marginal buyers are: Anyone who requires a qualified custodian:

- Buttoned up Crypto funds under SEC regulation
- TradFi Hedge funds
- Large, risk-averse Family offices & HNWI's

https://x.com/Ren_gmi/status/1887139120281256219

1/7

On Dec 11th Kaito launched their Yapper program, whereby crypto twitter users can earn YAPS / points from creating & getting engagement on crypto related content. The exact formula isn't public.

We can try value how much 1 YAP is worth using a couple of methods: 2/7

with ~25k YAPS being emitted daily, we can calculate the total amount of YAPS in circulation at different dates. Likely Kaito will do a snapshot of yaps sometime in the future to determine allocation for a token.

Currently there are 1,350,000 YAPS in circulation, but I expect the snapshot date to be sometime in the next 1-3 months, altho speculating.

1/x

The Frax Finance Ecosystem

3 Stablecoins

4 Applications

FXS & veFXS

Curve Basepools / Metapools & Incentives

& lot's on the roadmap - frxGov, Frax V3, USDP alpha, frax L2, frxETH v2 & BAMM First, Frax revolves around the FRAX stablecoin - a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar.

$1 of FRAX is minted when a user sends collateral ($USDC) at the Collateral ratio % & (1-CR%) of $FXS to the pool contract.

at 94.75% CR, $0.9475 USDC & $0.0525 FXS is needed to mint 1 FRAX.

quick notes on mevETH [mainly copy and paste TLDR]:

Manifold Finance is building its own liquid staking protocol with its own omnichain token, called mevETH, that will offer additional yield through MEV opportunities.

https://twitter.com/Riley_gmi/status/1643227012880801793

They acquired creams validator set & this means those who have staked their ether with Cream Finance will now be staking to Manifold’s liquid staking protocol.

This will bring around 25,000 ether ($44.5 million) under its control when the protocol launches.

.@foldfinance is set to integrate Sushiguard into @SushiSwap in order to backrun swaps and return the profit generated from this MEV in a 50/50 split with the Sushi treasury and $FOLD stakers.

Let's take a look at how much revenue could be returned to $FOLD stakers: Using @0xgeert's model [a Manifold community member] we can work out the actual profit generated by Sushiguard if it were deployed and running in 2021 & 2022.

The model & all [conservative] assumptions are included here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

In the past 13 hours, Alameda Research have been on the move, with multiple t/x's passing through known addresses.

Many of these t/x's have been swapping Altcoins > ETH.

The potential price impact if they sold their holdings could be catastrophic, with up to 99.47% downside. I took a look at Alameda's on-chain holdings using @ArkhamIntel & their Alameda entity.

if you don't have access to Arkham, you can sign up here for free: platform.arkhamintelligence.com/waitlist?refer…

The Alameda entity can be found here: platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entit…

@berachain is set to launch in approx 3/4 months & it includes some truly novel systems that I believe will make it a hub of liquidity & DeFi activity.

Let's dig into the core infrastructure + project alpha at the end Berachain is an EVM compatible layer 1 blockchain built atop Tendermint [Cosmos SDK]. The chain is secured by a novel consensus mechanism called 'Proof-of-Liquidity' [PoL].

But what is PoL?

Yesterday we shared how @GMX_IO's Synthetic PvP AMM is a game-changer for derivatives trading.

Now it's time to dig further into the pros / cons of GMX's novel synths model and speculate on how much incremental demand it might drive.

Hint - More volume, More fees

🧵👇 @GMX_IO For an introduction to GMX's upcoming synthetic derivative product, start here:

https://twitter.com/Riley_gmi/status/1546946551649488896?s=20&t=u1LbzlZNyMDnKQXucgyb9g

Alpha from .@GMX_IO: “We will be reviewing the synthetics model this week for edge cases, aiming to start on the contracts next week."

Me & .@808_Investor did a deep dive into:

Synthetic Assets

PvP AMMs & why they are *ALMOST ALWAYS* better than traditional exchanges @GMX_IO @808_Investor First off, what are Synthetic assets?

Synthetic assets (synths) are crypto-assets that derive their value from some other asset (the underlying asset). This underlying asset may be on or off the blockchain.

They are essentially digital representations of derivatives.

stETH is depegged, trading at .95

Liq is drying up & smart money is pulling capital. Coupled w/ the rumoured risk of Celsius' functional insolvency, there could be significant selling

Me & @Crypto_Joe10 & have been researching this for the past week

Here is what we found @Crypto_Joe10 First, what is Lido & stETH?

LIDO provides a "liquid staking" service, whereby users are able to lock any amount of ETH for validating purposes and then receive the stETH token, which can be rehypotheticated in DeFi to earn yield.

Each stETH is redeemable for 1 ETH after merge

Ever wanted to leverage trade without the chance of getting liquidated? or 3x long ETH and simply wait until new ATH?

A thread on how @TracerDAO allows users to take lev positions in assets, both crypto & real world assets, w/out any risk of liquidation & with negated vol decay @TracerDAO Tracer allows users to buy or sell leveraged tokens in their perpetual pools.

Simply, a leveraged token is a token that tracks the price of an underlying asset (E.g. ETH) & replicates it's returns by some multiple (leverage factor).

3x Leveraged ETH vs ETH for example:

.@Tetranode modelled out how much $CRV or $CVX it would take to subsidize @CurveFinance / @ConvexFinance stable pools of various sizes.

I have re-modelled this & added in the $CVX rewards from Convex staking.

A thread explaining my method & how the spreadsheet works. @Tetranode @CurveFinance @ConvexFinance First, some background

.@CurveFinance has a DAO, where holders of locked $CRV (veCRV) vote on which Liquidity pool the emissions of $CRV flow to.

$CRV inflationary rewards flow to these pools based on the number of votes for each pool. The current gauge weight is as follows:

The Markets have been pretty bleak & I am sure many people wish they had gone into stables earlier.

Sometimes it's easier to hedge your portfolio, instead of selling all your spot.

A thread on hedging & how to use the included hedging calculator (find calculator at the end!) First, what is hedging?

Hedging is a risk management strategy employed to offset losses in investments by taking the opposite position in a related asset.

The reduction in risk provided by hedging also typically results in a reduction in potential profits.

1/9

Intern notes on how to survive the bear market

https://twitter.com/laurashin/status/1529088586376790018

2/9

1/

You have probably heard the investing mantra "Don't fight the FED", but what does it actually mean & how does it relate to the crypto markets?

A thread 2/

The FED & FOMC make decisions regarding interest rates and assets purchases/sales (QE/QT) in order to achieve their goals. Namely, economic growth, price stability & employment.

Don't fight the FED means you should align your investments with the monetary policy of the FED

@GMX_IO printed crazy volumes yesterday and has been holding up quite well considering the recent market conditions.

Here is a quick analysis of GMX's volume on the historic day of the $LUNA full eclipse and it's huge for $GMX holders. GMX processed a total of $810,400,000 in volume yesterday.

$631 mn on Arbitrum
$179.4 mn on Avalanche

The entire monetary amount (broad money) in all 164 currencies worldwide is $146 tn, cryptocurrencies make up just $2tn of this figure or 1.3%. Stablecoins have a market cap of $190 bn, making up just 0.13% of broad money. A thread on @Nearprotocol & $USN. Most forecasts agree that crypto’s share of the market will grow until it reaches between 25%-33% of the total money serving the economies of the world. With this in mind, Near has just launched it’s stablecoin, $USN

$USN has just gone live and the yield will reportedly come from Decentral DAO’s revenue from native staking of $NEAR with security validators. This process currently earns a 10% return. This would therefore seem short term bearish for Near and USN. However, taking a look at the anchor yield, we can see that 71.72% comes from the yield reserve.