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Robert Griffin Profile picture
Robert Griffin
@rp_griffin
Research Director @DemocracyFund Voter Study Group Editorial committee @ps_polisci Previously at @PRRIpoll and @amprog Political Science PhD he/him
May 12, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
#AAPOR ICYMI

@johnmsides and I examined major explanations for polling error in 2020.

The big takeaway:
Evidence that highly engaged Democrats were a big contributor to the problem in 2020. Reweighting by in-cylce measures of participation substantially reduced error. Taking it from the top:
pre-election polling in 2020 was...not great.
Oct 21, 2021 • 14 tweets • 6 min read
🚨New Report🚨 Mayesha Quasem, @johnmsides, Michael Tesler, and I track shifts in racial attitudes over a decade, discuss Trump's part in that story, look at the effects of the Floyd protests, and discuss the sobering limitations of these changes.
[thread]
voterstudygroup.org/publication/ra… Americans' views on systemic racism have shifted dramatically over the last decade, driven exclusively by shifts among Dems and Inds. GOP views have held constant.

Changes among Dems have occurred across racial lines - narrowing the gaps between Black Dems and others.
Jul 8, 2021 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Big finding floating around today is that White Mainline Protestants (WMP) are rising. I'm a little skeptical.

- Unlikely that these changes would be caused by generational change. The other option is conversion.
- Not seeing those kinds of conversions in panel data.

[thread] To start, this is not a take-down thread or anything like that. I'm trying to put puzzle pieces together and things aren't quite lining up. That's worth talking about even if I'm not quite sure what it means. Lots of respect for the PRRI team and the work they've done.
Jul 1, 2021 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
@SeanTrende @jon_m_rob @NickRiccardi -Some demo cuts work the same way across White/Latino populations (e.g. age and gender).
-I'm more skeptical of the edu gap. Would be nice to see consistency across samples and I don't believe that's happening. E.g. the edu divide goes the other way in LD's post-election survey. Image @SeanTrende @jon_m_rob @NickRiccardi I'd have to check but I think some of the last weeks of Nationscape data look closer to LD's story about the edu gap than Pew's.
May 3, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
New VSG brief out today!

@AEI's Karlyn Bowman and @samanthagoldst dive into the VOTER's surveys post-election data on voting experiences in 2020 and confidence in the results. 1/N

voterstudygroup.org/publication/vo… As noted by many, the rates of voting by mail soared this year.

While roughly similar numbers of Democratic and Republican voters cast their ballot by mail in 2016, there were substantial partisan divides in 2020. 2/N
Nov 10, 2020 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
New @monkeycageblog piece this morning on problems with the Exit Polls.

Some are in a rush to explain what happened, but readily apparent issues with the Exit Polls should make folks skeptical about using them to do that storytelling. [thread]
washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/… Short version:
-Historically, the exit polls have had race/edu composition issues.
-It happened again. The Exit Polls are under-reporting the share of the electorate that is white non-college.
-This has effects that can ripple throughout the survey, influencing the vote margins.
Oct 24, 2019 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
*New Blog Post*

While the conversation around the Democratic Primary is currently focused on those candidates' electability, there’s another candidate with an electability challenge:
President Donald Trump.

Let's walk through the key takeaways. 1/N

voterstudygroup.org/blog/early-sig… 1) One of the most durable features of Trump’s presidency is his unpopularity. His approval/ favorability # is stable but also low given the economy. Worse, his support is relatively "soft". His very unfavorable # is about twice as large as his very favorable # (49% v. 25%). 2/N
Jul 14, 2019 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Friendly reminder:
That "white evangelical share of the national vote" is coming from the Exit Polls and is not *IN ANY WAY* credible. 1/N This number doesn't pass any kind of logic check.

For a group to increase or maintain it's share of the electorate as it shrinks means that the relative turnout of the group needs to go up every single year.

How much? A patently unbelievable amount. 2/N
May 8, 2019 • 16 tweets • 7 min read
*New Brief Out This Morning*
Two years into Trump’s presidency, I take a look at how American opinions have evolved over since the 2016 election. Let’s dive right in. [THREAD] 1/N
voterstudygroup.org/publication/tw… 1) The overwhelming majority (85%) of Americans have not changed their mind about Trump – holding either a consistently positive (36%) or consistently negative (48%) view of him. 2/N