Some are in a rush to explain what happened, but readily apparent issues with the Exit Polls should make folks skeptical about using them to do that storytelling. [thread] washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…
-Historically, the exit polls have had race/edu composition issues.
-It happened again. The Exit Polls are under-reporting the share of the electorate that is white non-college.
-This has effects that can ripple throughout the survey, influencing the vote margins.
In '16, both States of Change (modeling ACS+CPS) and Pew's voter validation study said that 74% of voters were white, including 44% white noncollege. Assuming relative turnout stays the same and you get 72% and 41% in '20. Will likely be a little different, but a good baseline.
1) One of the most durable features of Trump’s presidency is his unpopularity. His approval/ favorability # is stable but also low given the economy. Worse, his support is relatively "soft". His very unfavorable # is about twice as large as his very favorable # (49% v. 25%). 2/N
We see this in key voting groups. Majorities of Obama-Clinton(92%), Romney-Clinton (70%), and Obama-Other (70%) voters have a v. unfavorable view.
Only among Romney-Trump voters do a majority (67%) have a v. favorable view - a view shared by just 39% of Obama-Trump voters. 3/N
For a group to increase or maintain it's share of the electorate as it shrinks means that the relative turnout of the group needs to go up every single year.
How much? A patently unbelievable amount. 2/N
Go ahead and do the math yourself.
For WEP to have been 23% of the voting age population and 23% of the electorate in '04 means their turnout must have been roughly equal to the other 77% of people. VAP turnout was about 55% in '04, so let's use that as a starting place. 3/N
*New Brief Out This Morning*
Two years into Trump’s presidency, I take a look at how American opinions have evolved over since the 2016 election. Let’s dive right in. [THREAD] 1/N voterstudygroup.org/publication/tw…
1) The overwhelming majority (85%) of Americans have not changed their mind about Trump – holding either a consistently positive (36%) or consistently negative (48%) view of him. 2/N
There’s been a lot of talk about the “floor” of Trump’s support, but what about his ceiling? Let’s say we added up everyone who has expressed a positive view of Trump at any point in the last two years. This would still represent less than half (49%) of Americans. 3/N