Robert Griffin Profile picture
Research Director @DemocracyFund Voter Study Group Editorial committee @ps_polisci Previously at @PRRIpoll and @amprog Political Science PhD he/him/his
3 May
New VSG brief out today!

@AEI's Karlyn Bowman and @samanthagoldst dive into the VOTER's surveys post-election data on voting experiences in 2020 and confidence in the results. 1/N

voterstudygroup.org/publication/vo…
As noted by many, the rates of voting by mail soared this year.

While roughly similar numbers of Democratic and Republican voters cast their ballot by mail in 2016, there were substantial partisan divides in 2020. 2/N
Overall, relatively few reported experiencing problems voting (likely a testament to the time and energy that was put into making sure it went off smoothly).

Notably, Latinos were something of an outlier - more likely to report experiencing a problem on multiple questions. 3/N
Read 4 tweets
10 Nov 20
New @monkeycageblog piece this morning on problems with the Exit Polls.

Some are in a rush to explain what happened, but readily apparent issues with the Exit Polls should make folks skeptical about using them to do that storytelling. [thread]
washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…
Short version:
-Historically, the exit polls have had race/edu composition issues.
-It happened again. The Exit Polls are under-reporting the share of the electorate that is white non-college.
-This has effects that can ripple throughout the survey, influencing the vote margins.
In '16, both States of Change (modeling ACS+CPS) and Pew's voter validation study said that 74% of voters were white, including 44% white noncollege. Assuming relative turnout stays the same and you get 72% and 41% in '20. Will likely be a little different, but a good baseline.
Read 11 tweets
24 Oct 19
*New Blog Post*

While the conversation around the Democratic Primary is currently focused on those candidates' electability, there’s another candidate with an electability challenge:
President Donald Trump.

Let's walk through the key takeaways. 1/N

voterstudygroup.org/blog/early-sig…
1) One of the most durable features of Trump’s presidency is his unpopularity. His approval/ favorability # is stable but also low given the economy. Worse, his support is relatively "soft". His very unfavorable # is about twice as large as his very favorable # (49% v. 25%). 2/N
We see this in key voting groups. Majorities of Obama-Clinton(92%), Romney-Clinton (70%), and Obama-Other (70%) voters have a v. unfavorable view.

Only among Romney-Trump voters do a majority (67%) have a v. favorable view - a view shared by just 39% of Obama-Trump voters. 3/N
Read 13 tweets
14 Jul 19
Friendly reminder:
That "white evangelical share of the national vote" is coming from the Exit Polls and is not *IN ANY WAY* credible. 1/N
This number doesn't pass any kind of logic check.

For a group to increase or maintain it's share of the electorate as it shrinks means that the relative turnout of the group needs to go up every single year.

How much? A patently unbelievable amount. 2/N
Go ahead and do the math yourself.

For WEP to have been 23% of the voting age population and 23% of the electorate in '04 means their turnout must have been roughly equal to the other 77% of people. VAP turnout was about 55% in '04, so let's use that as a starting place. 3/N
Read 6 tweets
8 May 19
*New Brief Out This Morning*
Two years into Trump’s presidency, I take a look at how American opinions have evolved over since the 2016 election. Let’s dive right in. [THREAD] 1/N
voterstudygroup.org/publication/tw…
1) The overwhelming majority (85%) of Americans have not changed their mind about Trump – holding either a consistently positive (36%) or consistently negative (48%) view of him. 2/N
There’s been a lot of talk about the “floor” of Trump’s support, but what about his ceiling? Let’s say we added up everyone who has expressed a positive view of Trump at any point in the last two years. This would still represent less than half (49%) of Americans. 3/N
Read 16 tweets