My latest for @CrisisGroup on the consequences of the stunning Myanmar military defeats over last 7 months. The main beneficiaries are ethnic armed groups, who are making rapid progress in expanding their ethnic homelands & autonomous administrations. 1/6 crisisgroup.org/asia/south-eas… The Myanmar state is fragmenting, and the regime can’t do anything about it. Some worry Myanmar is heading for a Balkanised future of warring statelets. This concern shouldn’t be dismissed but is probably overblown. 2/6

Myanmar’s election commission has been under fire for controversial decisions to cancel voting in ways that advantage the NLD. Tonight it announced some changes that will mainly rub salt in the wounds. Major missed opportunity to ease tensions. 1/5 uec.gov.mm In Rakhine State, the major flashpoint, it un-cancelled a few village tracts in Ann and Kyaukpyu. Changes nothing here, and this will likely be interpreted by Rakhine leaders as a further provocation. 2/5

Controversy & claims of bias after Myanmar election commission declined (so far) to cancel elections in western Myanmar’s most conflict affected township, Paletwa. Strange decision when polls have been cancelled in most of Rakhine State, even places with no fighting. Why? 1/6 It looks bad for the election commission (under the constitution, a non-independent body appointed by the sitting president) because nearly all cancelled seats in Rakhine were held by ethnic opposition party ANP. Whereas all 5 seats in Paletwa are held by the NLD. What gives? 2/6

Myanmar election commission has just announced areas where elections will be cancelled for security reasons. Here’s a quick analysis. Rakhine State is the big news; this could be a serious conflict flashpoint. 1/7 facebook.com/uecmyanmar/pos… RAKHINE: Major cancellations, with authorities taking a maximalist approach that will anger Rakhine people and parties. 9 townships (out of 17) totally cancelled. 4 more partially cancelled (Sittwe, Kyaukpyu, Ann, Toungup). Only 4 unaffected (Gwa, Thandwe, Munaung, Ramree). 2/7

A thread about the tragic loss of life in Myanmar’s Phakant jade mines. So far, 172 bodies have been recovered; dozens more are missing. While this is the most deadly single incident, deaths of informal “jade pickers” happen year after year. What will it take to change this? 1/14 The govt has announced the formation of an “investigation body” to look into the incident, find who was to blame, arrange compensation and “recommend action plans regarding security” to prevent future deaths. That final point on security is telling, and worrying... 2/14