Regarding Crypto, I've spent about 1800 hours or so now studying this stuff. Granted, I spent 5200 hours studying medicine over the same length of time back in the day, but there's more to learn in medicine and more at risk there. But here's what I've learned along the way: 1 - Every "expert" is guessing to some degree what's going to happen. Not a single person "knows" and if they claim they do, they're wrong more often than right. I keep a spreadsheet on predictions of the gurus I follow--no one has beat >40% accuracy in the last 14 months