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Noah Wyhof-Rudnick Profile picture
Noah Wyhof-Rudnick
@rudnicknoah
Awkward tall guy with glasses - Lover of elections, Steppenwolf & the Miami Dolphins, so basically a younger Jeb Bush. Married to @anniegetyourgui
Aug 23, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
When @anniegetyourgui asked for a "Whig break" did she:

1. Want to stop hearing occasional facts about Millard Fillmore and go back to her work

2. Take a break from work and hear only fun Whig facts for 10 minutes Folks, it was apparently not #2 nor, apparently, has it ever been that
Aug 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Beer has been dominant since the start of the 20th century but maybe we're reverting? Image The distraction by the Civil War crushed the momentum of the first wave of Prohibition and then a second furor in the last half of the 19th century faded with the introduction of beer
Aug 13, 2022 • 14 tweets • 6 min read
I've been sitting on this piece, truthfully, for about a year now and mostly waiting on redistricting but also trying to figure out a good angle or release but here it is, the most contrarian take out there: medium.com/@rudnicknoah/i… This is, explicitly, *NOT* a model like previous years and I spend a lot of this talking about why I'm not modeling this year and a roundup of everything I've learned making House models in 2018 and 2020 with useful factors to look for in campaigns
Aug 7, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
I swear I've seen the phrase "usual summer bump" to describe generic ballot polling recently and I don't think this is a thing? Did someone just say it and then it kind of caught on? The case for this I usually see is either 2010 (where GOP started rising in July so idk who it would fit here) and the best case is 2014 but that wasn't a bump it was a constant Dem lead until things changed in mid-September
Oct 28, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Please, I'm so tired So the problem with an RV poll with self-selecting LV on enthusiasm is that your LV screen won't look right bc you're letting respondents determine it. On top of that, the implication with X% are enthused is that you are saying turnout will be like 70% of all RV
Oct 10, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The problem is thar you would need a comprehensive frequent messaging poll for each one of the hundreds testing that then reads positive and negative attacks on it. Expanded welfare is popular...until it's not Taking the new expanded child tax credit for instance - polling has shown that it's on the more popular end, but a majority alsp want to end it. Those that received it do not want it as much to end, but which group do you listen to in this instance
Oct 6, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Virginia pollsters over the last month don't seem to disagree on vote intention, the main difference is their sample frame. The topline has a weak correlation with the Democratic partisan advantage built into the poll For example, Emerson's poll from a month ago had McAuliffe's lead slipping by 4 points but it also had the expected Democratic advantage dropping by 3. This means that what a pollster expects the electorate to look like is key to driving the topline results and changes
Oct 4, 2021 • 23 tweets • 6 min read
A few weeks ago, I wrote about the media circus that was the 1906 NY gubernatorial race but I figured I would do a Twitter thread with some of the highlights from the post medium.com/@rudnicknoah/r… In the turn of the 20th century, New York City had 2 less counties than it does today but still had most of the people, and while they voted Democratic it was usually not enough to overcome the Republican vote in close loss after close loss Image
May 19, 2021 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Some activists have long said that running a primary challenge, even one that loses, is useful in the long run because it will drag the incumbent to their side. I checked it out: medium.com/@rudnicknoah/h… A recent study showed that there was definitely posturing in the public facing messaging and that incumbents that lost re-election immediately moderated their tone. I wanted to check out long term
Feb 27, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A big sticking point imo is that Trump wasn't even that much if an anomaly in the subrubs, Romney was. The big Trump-era difference between 2016 and after was downballot catching up I mention this example a lot but check out Johnson county, KS: Trump is right in line with the historical trend starting from HW Bush but Romney was a huge overperformance Image
Apr 12, 2019 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
Late night thread looking at Stacey Abram's race and the role of African American voters, especially a sneaking suspicion about rural AA voters not coming out in force for her, complete with maps and charts! 1/whenever I die on this hill First off, I'm looking at the basic maps of the margin and turnout change from the 2014 to the 2018 GA gubernatorial elections (blue is Dems, red is GOP), you can see the hard left pivot around Atlanta and the rural white turnout surge in the North and SE