Gerald Knaus Profile picture
Chairman @esi_eu. Europe, human rights. European from the Austrian Alps. https://t.co/K6435uAKOi. Books: https://t.co/7qrAjYMzXO. https://t.co/TDsqD15J5W
Mar 1 15 tweets 8 min read
Relistening and rereading this: Vance and then Trump were waiting to escalate, and then did.

In order to deliver one unacceptable punch line.

🧵 The first moment of escalation

This looks like a rehearsed line.

And a charge familiar from Russian apologists: only Zelensky wants that war. Image
Feb 16 4 tweets 4 min read
History is accelerating. The script is familiar.

1. The disintegration of US democracy.

Next step: attacks on judges. Then one expects: first political arrests. So far this has not been necessary, as there has been no resistance.

Successful coups must take opponents by surprise. Trump is succeeding in the US.

For MAGA to „follow the law“ means: „do what Trump wants“, as he is the law, busy „saving the nation.“ And opposition is treason.Image
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2. MAGA: Attack anyone in advance who might criticize the dismantling of US democracy. Keep the world off balance.

To Europeans: tell leaders of democracies that they are like the Soviets; that only parties like AfD can „save Germany.“ See who applauds this message: THEY are your friends (Wilders. Salvini. AfD)

State clearly that only an AfD Europe „shares our common values” now. Which is true. Work to divide the EU. Goal: Before they see in Brussels what is happening, it is paralyzed.

To Canadians: „you will be the 51st state.“ And those tariffs are just suspended.

To Ukrainians: we want you to pay back now for what Biden gave you. On your future: you are not going to be at the table.

To G7: Trump wants Putin back at the table. Apparently. His real message: Trump hated the G7 he attended, with liberal leaders berating him, and does not mind if the format disappears.

To international organisations: Whatever Trump (backed by all MAGA) did to USAID - a US organisation (!) - he will do to any UN organisation, including to the UN itself. Those unemployed former USAID colleagues: that could be anyone.

Note: a world without USAID seemed no more (and no less) likely three months ago than a world without the ICC, UNHCR, or indeed a UN in New York.Image
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Feb 4 5 tweets 2 min read
Was Grenzkontrollen nicht bewirken: nur Fakten (ohne Ideologie) 👇

In Frankreich haben sich Asylantragszahlen nach Einführung von Kontrollen 2016-2019 verdoppelt.
x.com/rumeliobserver…

In Österreich lagen Asylantragszahlen 2022 (109.000!) über denen von 2015!

Es ist leicht zu verstehen warum auch 🇩🇪 Grenzkontrollen wenig bewirken werden

Konkretes Beispiel vom letzten Wochenende: Bundespolizei Rosenheim berichtet👇

Februar Wochenende: durch Kontrollen werden ~ 40 Migranten “festgestellt”.

Kontrolle “wirkt”. Die Polizei macht ihre Arbeit.

Was passierte dann?Image 🇩🇪 Bundespolizei sagt:

Von ~ 40 wurden dann am Wochenende ~ 30 nach Österreich “überwiesen.”

(15 am Tag wären ~ 105 die Woche ~ 5500 im Jahr).

10 blieben in Deutschland.

Was passierte mit den anderen 30?
Feb 19, 2024 6 tweets 3 min read
🇽🇰🇷🇸🇧🇦

New @ESI_eu - online later tonight

„Invented pogroms - Statistics, lies and confusion in Kosovo“

On a matter of great importance: how many Kosovo Serbs live in Kosovo?

How many left in recent years?

And how to explain these trends?

@adicerimagic @kristofbender @tschinderle @joerglau @thkirchner @Andric1961 @aliciakearns @RoryStewartUKImage
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Two numbers should guide this debate.

Kosovo Serbs in Kosovo:

In 2002: 129,000
In 2024: 100,000

This is a decline of 22 %. Which is dramatic.

But … Image
Jul 28, 2023 7 tweets 6 min read
🦏

Alas, violence is an option.

As poet Seamus Heaney, who grew up near Derry and saw Northern Ireland descend into hell in 1969, once wrote: “history says, don’t hope.”

The Kosovo-Serbia dialogue has broken down. Neither the EU nor 🇺🇸 have a plan. Serbia has returned …

🧵

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… to the rhetoric of 1990s.

Vucic put a deadline 20 days ago: “In the next 14 days we will inform all our international partners about what decisions we have taken.”

Since then, this rhetoric got worse: “pogroms, terror, ethnic cleansing.”

These are lies.

But they matter.

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Oct 4, 2022 9 tweets 6 min read
In recent days discussing leopard battle tanks for 🇺🇦 issue with many in 🇵🇱, 🇸🇪, 🇳🇴, 🇫🇮, 🇳🇱.

Explained how in all 4 democratic parties leading voices in bundestag called on Germany to supply them now.

So what might make it happen? 🧵

Overview of voices .@MiRo_SPD Michael Roth (SPD):
rnd.de/politik/ukrain…
Oct 2, 2022 4 tweets 4 min read
@fbieber 👇

This is authoritarian abuse 🇪🇺 would rightly critizise everywhere else.

One man, unaccountable, changes constitution (!) by decree on election Sunday night.

It is the opposite of any rule of law.

It is deeply disrespectful of millions of Bosnian voters. Imagine ANY executive in ANY European democracy doing this: Imposing constitutional changes AFTER voters elected those who can change constitutions (lawfully).

One has to go back to colonial governors for a parallel.

journalofdemocracy.org/articles/lesso…

@thkirchner @MichaelOThumann @ecfr ImageImageImage
Oct 2, 2022 4 tweets 5 min read
Heute ⁦@aktuelle_stunde⁩ ⁦@WDR

Einordnung:

In 🇩🇪 ~ 1 Million aus 🇺🇦
🇵🇱 1,4 Millionen
🇨🇿 430.000 (in wenigen Monaten!)

Hätte 🇩🇪 pro Kopf so viele Flüchtlinge wie 🇨🇿: 3,4 Millionen

🇮🇹+🇫🇷+🇪🇸 < 🇨🇿

Was wenn im Winter mehr aus 🇺🇦 fliehen müssen? Dann braucht 🇪🇺 Plan. Image Das wichtigste, um eine noch viel grössere Fluchtbewegung zu verhindern:

🇺🇦 muss Territorium zurückerobern
🇪🇺 muss 🇺🇦 mehr helfen (Waffen & €) als bisher
Russland darf keine Massenvernichtungswaffen einsetzen (Abschreckung muss glaubhaft sein).

www1.wdr.de/mediathek/vide… ImageImageImageImage
Sep 14, 2022 7 tweets 6 min read
🧵 You misunderstand our proposal.

Take 🇲🇪. Could it be a full 🇪🇺 member by 2026 (if it meets all conditions)? Yes.

We argue for this too!

That is the goal. That is the process. But what if 🇲🇪 meets all conditions & EU (!) is not in favor, because of internal reasons? What 🇪🇺 internal reasons? 🇫🇷& 🇩🇪 are clear: for more members, EU must reform first.

The reforms 🇫🇷🇩🇪 say are needed 🇵🇱🇨🇿& many others oppose.

So what is signal now?

🇲🇪 can make all its reforms, but accession will NOT depend on it.
This is message to all WB now. Loud & clear
Sep 10, 2022 5 tweets 8 min read
🧵 on writing

Exactly two years ago, the strangest thing happened in Orban’s 🇭🇺 media: weeks of campaigning, against me & ESI, on Tv, papers, all channels. Including public threats by officials.

magyarnemzet.hu/belfold/2020/0…

Why? It was bizarre …

(1) ImageImageImageImage We later learned that it was all due to one report ESI had written in April 2020:

Pot of gold - how Orban lived off EU money to destroy EU values

esiweb.org/publications/w…

&

No silent cash-machine - how the EU had to change. Stop being so naive.

esiweb.org/newsletter/bey… ImageImageImage
Jan 7, 2022 4 tweets 4 min read
Whatever happens 2022-2024, the EU - & 🇩🇪 & 🇫🇷 - need to get serious now about collective defence of all EU members now.

Just imagine the (realistic) scenario of a horrible 🇺🇸 election 2024. And an aggressive, confident Kremlin.

nbcnews.com/politics/natio… Also: 🇪🇺 needs realistic strategy to make war in Western Balkans unthinkable before/if US pulls out troops.

Realistic = offer to whole region, really attractive to majorities in 🇦🇱🇲🇪🇲🇰🇽🇰🇷🇸🇧🇦; which all in EU stand behind; which shows results by 2024.

@W_Schmidt_ @Andric1961
Dec 20, 2021 10 tweets 18 min read
🇵🇱🇪🇺 Winter is coming ... to Poland.

NEW ESI: esiweb.org/node/10618

As Poles demonstrate in the streets, the powerful in Warsaw are convinced that they are winning the battle that matters most: control over all courts.

🧵

@Adbodnar @WolneSady1 @PiotrBuras1 @WojSadurski Since 2015 there have been many demonstrations in Poland: to protect the Constitutional Tribunal, Supreme Court, women’s rights, free media.

But the decisive battles over control of prosecutors & judges = the commanding heights of the state, have all been won by this man ...
Dec 18, 2021 10 tweets 15 min read
🇵🇱

NEW Weekend reading: @ESI_eu esiweb.org/publications/p…

On @ZiobroPL vs 🇪🇺🇧🇪 @alexanderdecroo

How @dreynders @VeraJourova @vonderleyen @TimmermansEU can resolve deepest crisis inside EU today. 🧵

@diederiksamsom @JHahnEU @JanezLenarcic @donaldtusk @eucopresident @ManfredWeber ImageImage Today @EU_Commission Commission faces momentous decision on Poland. It must turn to the European Court of Justice (ECJ) & ask for an unprecedented penalty payment from a government refusing to implement one of the most important ECJ judgements in the history of 🇪🇺.

@liliebayer Image
Oct 21, 2021 4 tweets 5 min read
Today, ten years ago today: making the case for visa liberalisation for 🇹🇷 in Brussels & Amsterdam. This file is still open.

esiweb.org/why-eu-visa-li…

Without Selim Yenel at 🇪🇺 there would have been no EU-Turkey statement 4 years later in March 2016.

@frkkymkc We worked on visa liberalisation for decades: arguing how more legal mobility can bring more control, security & strengthen human rights.

It worked in 🇲🇰🇷🇸🇧🇦🇦🇱🇲🇪🇲🇩🇬🇪🇺🇦! It had long seemed impossible: esiweb.org/rumeliobserver…

Here is how it was possible: esiweb.org/pdf/schengen_w…
Oct 19, 2021 7 tweets 7 min read
On Poland today: why this situation is unique in EU history.

“the right to a fair trial can no longer be guaranteed. The trust required for courts in other EU member states to accept the judgements of Polish courts dissolves.”
esiweb.org/newsletter/5-b…

@SLagodinsky @othmar_karas Image Now a familiar double act: Ziobro-Morawiecki.

The strongman in Warsaw - min. of justice Ziobro - made clear since historic ECJ judgement: it will NEVER be implemented. He will not give up his control over every judge in 🇵🇱.

@vonderleyen @TimmermansEU @diederiksamsom @EuMordue Image
Sep 18, 2021 5 tweets 11 min read
The Emperor was always naked: how did @WorldBank take Doing Business seriously?

Ideology blinded too many.

@ESI_eu wrote about its flaws since 2010 over & over again.

In 2010 on 🇬🇪 & how easy it was to manipulate criteria: esiweb.org/pdf/esi_-_geor…

@paulkrugman @AlexanderSoros Georgia - backed by @SimeonDjankov- was THE first global star performer.

Yet it was always clear how flawed the concepts & criteria were: esiweb.org/newsletter/pum…

More 2010: esiweb.org/newsletter/geo…

@Tom_deWaal @JosephEStiglitz @handelsblatt @MFeldenkirchen @BenjaminBidder
Sep 1, 2021 4 tweets 7 min read
Left geneva in the morning to cross 🇨🇭 by train. Always struck again: what a beautiful, fascinating country this is! Then arriving in 🇦🇹 for seminar with dozens of refugee support groups.

It’s humbling: these pro-refugee grassroots organisations bought 96 copies of my book on humane borders (grenzen.eu) & presented them to all 96 mayors of all parties in Vorarlberg … in person!
Sep 1, 2021 5 tweets 9 min read
Most interventions failed, Bosnia was a spectacular success. Why? @derspiegel: spiegel.de/ausland/afghan…

More on 🇦🇫 & 🇧🇦:

CIW intro online: books.google.com/books/about/Ca…

@ECFRBerlin @dgapev @SWP_IntSecurity @AuswaertigesAmt @n_roettgen @boell_secpol @FESonline Als RAND 2007 seine nation-building Formel präsentierte.

Der damalige Konsens: man muss nur wollen, dann lässt sich Erfolg bei Interventionen erzwingen.

Die konkreten Ziele blieben vage.

@AndiErnst @ulrichspeck
Aug 31, 2021 6 tweets 7 min read
Going back to 2009 (!) debates „Can Intervention work?“ on 🇦🇫:

„the administration is that the way to achieve the counterterrorist objective, is through the building of a state and through a counterinsurgency campaign. I believe the problem with this theory lies in the fact … ImageImage … that neither of those two means are achievable. We are neither going to be able to defeat the Taliban through a counterinsurgency campaign, nor is the United States or its allies in a position to build a legitimate, effective, stabile Afghan state …

@CarloMasala1 @ulfposh
Aug 22, 2021 11 tweets 13 min read
Factfulness

10 Klischees & IRRTÜMER zu Flucht & Migration. Aus: grenzen.eu

Klischee 1:

“Migration ist wie Wasser in kommunizierenden Röhren: Irreguläre Migration lässt sich nicht stoppen, nur umleiten.”

Dazu: wienerstadtgespraech.at/video/knaus/ Klischee 2:

“Die demografische Entwicklung Afrikas und die Effekte des Kli- mawandels erhöhen den Migrationsdruck: Dies führt zwangsläufig zu mehr irregulärer Migration aus Afrika nach Europa.”

Dazu:

@UNHCR_de @IOMGermany @dominik_bartsch @bendel_petra
Aug 21, 2021 5 tweets 5 min read
Warum gibt es internationalen Flüchtlingsschutz?

Auch als Reaktion auf Mitteleuropa vor 1951. Und auf die 🇦🇹🇨🇭 Grenze 1938-1945.

(aus: “Welche Grenzen brauchen wir?”)

esiweb.org/pdf/KNAUS_Die%… Die Politik der 🇨🇭 war es Juden aus dem Dritten Reich um jeden Preis abzuschieben.

Ziel: “Überfremdung” zu verhindern.

Exekutor dieser Politik: Heinrich Rothmund, Chef der 🇨🇭Fremdenpolizei.

Er war dabei schrecklich erfolgreich.

(Mehr: jüdisches Museum in Hohenems)