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Waikura Profile picture
Waikura
@rustie5555
Sewer socialist technocrat. Infrastructure. Psephology. Shitposting. Long-suffering Blues fan. 🏳️‍🌈 but bad at it. He/him. Not a pigeon. Alt: @alt_rustie.
Oct 12, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Let me test my thinking so I can see where I'm going wrong:
- climate change is real
- climate change is bad
- it is caused by carbon and other emissions
- to prevent it getting worse, we need to reduce emissions - NZ has agreed to emissions reductions targets in a multilateral international forum
- failure to meet those will result in negative diplomatic and trade consequences
- every unit emitted under that cap is one that can't be emitted elsewhere in the country
Oct 12, 2022 • 8 tweets • 1 min read
Lmao. Imagine if we treated drivers who block footpaths and cycleways the same way we treated people who put a sign on the motorway. "Can't you just drive around them?"
Oct 10, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Lmao no Jesus Christ.

I barely knew my job existed when I applied for it, let alone as a kid. If your kid is saying "mum I want to be an energy policy analyst when I grow up!" I mean, good for them, it's a great gig. But also maybe consider a child psychologist.
Oct 9, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Crazy idea, but maybe local elections are diverse and context-specific, and not just a referendum on the nationwide government?? For the record, I'm an not in the "everything is fine, trust Labour" camp. They are currently on track to damn near lose.

But there's a concerted effort to paint these results a certain way. It's not that simple.
Oct 9, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
I'll believe we're taking climate change seriously as a society when I stop getting YouTube ads for shit like this. Image The cashed-up fuckers buying these places are going to make us bail them out, and we're really not ready to say "no, fuck you".
Oct 7, 2022 • 56 tweets • 11 min read
Okay Part 3 of this quixotic mission to understand the Wellington council elections: what could it mean for tomorrow's(!) results.

Quick reminder of the heuristic: voter preferences create "lanes", candidates try to fill one or more of them. Again, this is all pretty impressionistic, not statistically backed or scientific.

I'm probably wrong, Local elections are weird. STV is unpredictable.

Very much open to corrections especially around categorisation, the real ferals hide their powerlevel, bios are vague).
Oct 7, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Auckland Council ballot returns update: 7 October 2022

Last one before the big day!

Nothing dramatic to report: 29.4% returned so far, +2.8% from yesterday, now down only -2.01% from 2019 (better than -3.2% yesterday).

public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Getting an upload error on the other charts, hold fire.
Oct 6, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Okay part two of my doomed effort to understand Wellington local electoral politics.

First step: take the "lanes" from the first thread, putting the candidates into the lane that (in my half-researched) view they best fit in. As I said, I don't think the candidates actually fit into these neat little boxes.

Like, Foster could maybe be called a conservative centrist, in her worse moment Calvert tends reactionary, and the Greens.. contain multitudes...

But I need an analytical framework so 🤷‍♂️
Oct 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Wellington City Council returns update: 5 October

(Slow today because I wanted to sit on the couch and depression-watch TikTok rather than do political science on the internet for free).

First day in a week where the lead over 2019 narrowed (+2.68%)

public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Image Ward-by-ward.

Wharangi/Onslow-Western most improved (+6.87%) and overtakes Paekawakawa/Southern for best overall (28.25% plays 28.61%).

Everyone still above 2019.

public.flourish.studio/visualisation/… Image
Oct 5, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Look it sucks that he's bought it but at least he's taken an absolute bath. $33 billion dollars is a lot even for someone with his money.

Also lmao imagine thinking Twitter was ever worth $44bil.
Oct 4, 2022 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
So this is probably a slightly mad errand, and too late in the piece, but I'm trying to sketch out the "lanes" (roughly: demographic, ideological and aesthetic coalitions) that exist for WCC seats... Image Always going to be somewhat arbitrary but I think there's eight:

1 Progressive greens
2 Conventional Labour
3 Progressive centrists
4 Traditional greens
5 Conservative centrists
6 Traditional conservatives
7 Reactionary conservatives
X Cranks, rogues, and weirdos
Mar 2, 2022 • 85 tweets • 50 min read
Okay. Now that I've cleared out of the action, here's roughly what I saw going on as the #Convoy2022NZ occupation was disassembled.

This was all around 4:45pm through to 7:45pm this evening. Gotta untangle your flag so you can signal distress properly.

This old geezer here was chewing that cops ear off like an old soak boring a bartender out of their mind.
Mar 2, 2022 • 20 tweets • 6 min read
Train station end turning into an evacuation zone. Pantomime of a refugee camp.
Mar 1, 2022 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
Quick update to the map based on a very quick look
Control map for the Wellington protest - 2 Mar 2022 update:
🟥Fully protestor-occupied
🟧Significant permanent presence
🟨Frequent presence
🟦Police cordons
✴ Flashpoints
#Convoy2022NZ #convoynz2022 #Clownvoy Police have moved in down Molesworth, then fanned through Aitken and (maybe?) Hill. Now in control of those areas.

At least five big two truck queued up.
Mar 1, 2022 • 8 tweets • 6 min read
I'll do a map update on the Wellington #ConvoyNZ2022 occupation later this evening. Short answer is space wise nothing has changed.

Assorted observations from today's walk. For vibes.
Feb 28, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Unironically uses terrible nicknames for NZ towns: Anything-a-vegas, Dunners, the Tron. "Aucks" (no one says this, who are you?)
Feb 27, 2022 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
Okay hivemind: best bet for a COVID test in Wellington? So it's good that the only place in the central city where you can collect a test even if you're a symptomatic close contact.
Feb 2, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I hate sanding, sealing, and finishing wood work so fucking much. Swear to God just gonna pay a guy next time.
Feb 1, 2022 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
The problem with being generally pro our government's COVID border policies is you get stuck in a common cause with some real ice-chewing sociopaths. PEOPLE WHO DIDNT RETURN AS SOON AS THEY WERE ORDERED TO DESERVE TO SUFFER
Jan 31, 2022 • 20 tweets • 3 min read
Seeing as the OECD report is getting coverage... Man it's a wildly mixed bag
oecd.org/economy/survey… Increase ICU capacity and vaccination rates among vulnerable groups (✅ duh).

Once vaccination rates are high, progressively relax border restrictions, as planned (I mean we're going to, but don't be so gleeful about it ✅)
Mar 2, 2021 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
This is a stupid idea. But let's entertain it momentarily: is there any place in the country that could realistically warrant a new city? Criteria something like:
- not within or adjacent to an urban (say 50k+ centre)
- near existing infrastructure (highways, rail, the grid)
- not on a major fault line or flood plain
- better than average climate
- reasonably flat topography
- some vague economic base