🧵 @MooreMorrisSemi and I just published a 4,000‑word technical deep dive on HBM. A MUST READ—I can confidently say.

We break down: 1) Bonding technologies behind HBM 2) Why and how  SK  Hynix has taken the lead. 3) China’s evolved HBM capabilities. /1

Link: nomadsemi.com/p/deep-dive-on… So before we dive in, let's start with a simple HBM 101 class—What is HBM?

HBM stands for High Bandwidth Memory. It’s a special kind of DRAM, stacked vertically and connected to processors through tiny wires inside the silicon called TSVs (through-silicon vias). TSV allows the direct connection of multiple HBM DRAM dies to increase overall memory bandwidth. /2

🧵My Latest Analysis: "Mapping China’s HBM Advancement amid U.S. Export Controls" — CXMT Now Just 3-4 Years Behind (1/N).

Link: chinatalk.media/p/mapping-chin…

Key Takeaways:

1) Nvidia’s H20 GPU with HBM3 had become the most sought-after accelerator in China amid rapidly increasing inference and computing demand. Prior to the new restrictions, shipments were projected to reach 1.4 million units in 2025.

2) CXMT is now only 3-4 years behind global leaders in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) development, aiming to produce HBM3 in 2026 and HBM3E in 2027 amid notable technological improvements in DRAM.

3) CXMT still faces major roadblocks — these include U.S. export controls on lithography and other equipment, a volatile geopolitical environment, limited access to global markets, and the uncertain pace of technological development against market leaders.

*Thanks for the edits by @jordanschnyc and Lily Ottinger

*The author would like to express sincere appreciation to those who provided valuable feedback on this piece, including @ohlennart (RAND), @SKundojjala (SemiAnalysis), @kyleichan (Princeton University), and @Huang_Sihao (Oxford University).

@Samsung @SKhynix @MicronPolicy @SamsungUS @nvidia RECAP on Dec 2024 HBM rule and HBM Market:

In December 2024, the U.S. released new export control packages targeting Chinese access to high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, and various types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, including tools essential for HBM manufacturing and packing. The new rule also added over 140 Chinese chip manufacturers and chip toolmakers to the Commerce Department’s Entity List.

The new rule was designed to further constrain China’s AI development by leveraging the chokepoint on HBM, ultimately controlled by three companies around the world — SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron. The restriction around SMEs, on the other hand, aims to limit China’s ability to develop its own HBM.

Morgan Stanley: "China's DeepSeek Moment" (March 2025). (1/3) — Quite Objective, Concise, and Insightful Observation.

"DeepSeek’s emergence is more than just an artificial intelligence (AI) milestone – it’s a timely symbol of China’s ambition to claim a leadership role in the tech revolution." Morgan Stanley: "China's DeepSeek Moment" (March 2025). (2/3)

"Beyond financial markets, DeepSeek’s emergence comes at a moment of national pride. The box-office triumph of “Ne Zha 2” and video game “Black Myth: WuKong” have given rise to a grassroots confidence, rather than a top-down directive from Beijing, reinforcing newfound belief in national identity and tradition."

Moody's, Chinese Economy, Deflation, and Export. /1 Deflation and Consumption. /2

🧵 DeepSeek Founder and CEO Liang Wenfeng's Remark Reflecting on DeepSeek’s Original Vision on New Year’s Eve /1 Dear young friends, I’m Liang Wenfeng from DeepSeek. I just answered a question earlier, and now, on New Year’s Eve, I can’t help but respond to this one as well. /1