Few points on $NVDA, lift of H20 ban, H20 and B30 upside, and policy implications 🧵

1) The surging AI inference and compute demand from China: Much of Chinese compute and inference has yet to be reflected in $NVDA ’s reported numbers.

I believe given the pace of Chinese AI development, I think the compute and inference demand in 2H25 and Q1 2026 will be even greater than late 2024 and Q1 2025 (we see how compute growth plays out in 1H25 globally) 2) H20 Upside (rough estimate): If we assume $NVDA ships 500K units (fair estimate I think) in the coming quarter at an average ASP of $10K–$12K, that translates to 5-6 billion in potential revenue.

Couple signals and development you should aware of regarding U.S.-China tension and negotiation.

1) Chinese state media CCTV reportedly that U.S. and China agree to boost challenges for talks at ALL LEVELS—likely the first time of such wording during Trump 2.0.

2) Secretary Rubio's meeting with Wang Yi in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia is described as "very constructive and POSITIVE," and further suggested that the Trump-Xi summit is likely and stated "there's a strong desire on both sides to do it."

3) Just not long time ago, Bloomberg also reportedly that Commerce Department is exploring CEO's interest in accompanying Trump to visit China in September (this is, to my understanding, TRUE).

4) All of these development come right after: a) U.S. lift control on EDA software, ethane, jet engine and b) China reportedly lift rare earth control, as well as c) U.S. and China reach trade agreement without disclosing specific details few weeks ago.

5) Taken together, while structural and high level landscape between U.S and China remained unchanged, aka strategic competition, there are enough signals that a) U.S. and China are working closely to address trade tension and b) there is a real intention here to path way for potential Trump-Xi summit in 2H25.

Lastly, few key events to watch beside possibility of Trump's visit in China. APEC Summit (October 28-31 in South Korea) and G20 Summit (November 22-23 in South Africa).

That being said, we still need to monitor what's coming in the next few months, particularly on whether China has fulfill its pledge (reportedly) on rare earth control and whether there is new control measure (adjusted diffusion rule, chipmaking equipment control, etc) coming from U.S., which both could derail the "atmosphere/momentum building" so far. Some reference below

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Wow. According to WSJ, Mark Zuckerberg is spending his days firing off emails and WhatsApp messages to recruit to best AI talent, and reportedly reach out to HUNDREDS of researchers, scientist, and infrastructure engineers, etc to recruit them to new Superintelligence team. /1 "Some of the people who have received the messages were so surprised they didn’t believe it was really Zuckerberg. One person assumed it was a hoax and didn’t respond for several days." /2

🧵 @MooreMorrisSemi and I just published a 4,000‑word technical deep dive on HBM. A MUST READ—I can confidently say.

We break down: 1) Bonding technologies behind HBM 2) Why and how  SK  Hynix has taken the lead. 3) China’s evolved HBM capabilities. /1

Link: nomadsemi.com/p/deep-dive-on… So before we dive in, let's start with a simple HBM 101 class—What is HBM?

HBM stands for High Bandwidth Memory. It’s a special kind of DRAM, stacked vertically and connected to processors through tiny wires inside the silicon called TSVs (through-silicon vias). TSV allows the direct connection of multiple HBM DRAM dies to increase overall memory bandwidth. /2

🧵My Latest Analysis: "Mapping China’s HBM Advancement amid U.S. Export Controls" — CXMT Now Just 3-4 Years Behind (1/N).

Link: chinatalk.media/p/mapping-chin…

Key Takeaways:

1) Nvidia’s H20 GPU with HBM3 had become the most sought-after accelerator in China amid rapidly increasing inference and computing demand. Prior to the new restrictions, shipments were projected to reach 1.4 million units in 2025.

2) CXMT is now only 3-4 years behind global leaders in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) development, aiming to produce HBM3 in 2026 and HBM3E in 2027 amid notable technological improvements in DRAM.

3) CXMT still faces major roadblocks — these include U.S. export controls on lithography and other equipment, a volatile geopolitical environment, limited access to global markets, and the uncertain pace of technological development against market leaders.

*Thanks for the edits by @jordanschnyc and Lily Ottinger

*The author would like to express sincere appreciation to those who provided valuable feedback on this piece, including @ohlennart (RAND), @SKundojjala (SemiAnalysis), @kyleichan (Princeton University), and @Huang_Sihao (Oxford University).

@Samsung @SKhynix @MicronPolicy @SamsungUS @nvidia RECAP on Dec 2024 HBM rule and HBM Market:

In December 2024, the U.S. released new export control packages targeting Chinese access to high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, and various types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, including tools essential for HBM manufacturing and packing. The new rule also added over 140 Chinese chip manufacturers and chip toolmakers to the Commerce Department’s Entity List.

The new rule was designed to further constrain China’s AI development by leveraging the chokepoint on HBM, ultimately controlled by three companies around the world — SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron. The restriction around SMEs, on the other hand, aims to limit China’s ability to develop its own HBM.

Morgan Stanley: "China's DeepSeek Moment" (March 2025). (1/3) — Quite Objective, Concise, and Insightful Observation.

"DeepSeek’s emergence is more than just an artificial intelligence (AI) milestone – it’s a timely symbol of China’s ambition to claim a leadership role in the tech revolution." Morgan Stanley: "China's DeepSeek Moment" (March 2025). (2/3)

"Beyond financial markets, DeepSeek’s emergence comes at a moment of national pride. The box-office triumph of “Ne Zha 2” and video game “Black Myth: WuKong” have given rise to a grassroots confidence, rather than a top-down directive from Beijing, reinforcing newfound belief in national identity and tradition."

Moody's, Chinese Economy, Deflation, and Export. /1 Deflation and Consumption. /2

🧵 DeepSeek Founder and CEO Liang Wenfeng's Remark Reflecting on DeepSeek’s Original Vision on New Year’s Eve /1 Dear young friends, I’m Liang Wenfeng from DeepSeek. I just answered a question earlier, and now, on New Year’s Eve, I can’t help but respond to this one as well. /1