Have been at conference in Belgium but media coverage suggests two important errors in emerging #CovidInquiry narrative that should be stamped on. 1/Confusion between seasonal and pandemic influenza and 2/Absence of intelligence about coronaviruses (1/8) First, influenza is a genetically unstable virus. Every year there is genetic DRIFT which is why vaccines have to be fine tuned although many people will have some immune coverage from previous infections (2/8)

As a sociologist, I am used to abuse from people who do not recognize my skill set in collecting and evaluating quant and qual information as a contribution to moral, ethical and policy debates. But sometimes my discipline is hard to defend against critics (1/9) @leoniedelt Correctly applied, the precautionary principle requires advocates of any novel intervention, such as community-wide masking, to provide evidence that its benefits exceed its potential harms. (2/9)

JCVI's critics are having a pile-on about the release of minutes to the end of July. The minutes of the meeting that actually agreed the statement of 3 Sep have not yet been published. Some critics have obviously never been asked for policy advice. (1/6) What the minutes actually show is JCVI considering a wide range of evidence from multiple sources - some of which the critics don't like - and the options available. This is absolutely what a committee like this is supposed to do. (2/6)

The wording of Javid's tweet was crass - but the sentiment was correct. His experience is the future of Covid as an infection and it is time to move on from the fear that is continuing to drive policy and paralyse everyday life. (1/5) This does not mean that we should forget the suffering and loss of earlier phases of the pandemic. These should be appropriately memorialized and studied. How would we minimize such experiences next time? How do we honour the victims? But they should not frame the future. (2/5)

Some reorganization of govt science advice. When the music stopped, my roles on NERVTAG and JCVI have come to an end today. This was decided some weeks ago and has no bearing on any recent events. (1/5) Public service is always a privilege. I am grateful to have worked with some eminent scientists who were open to sharing their knowledge and expertise. At 70+, opportunities to learn new and interesting things become rarer! (2/5)

As a member of government advisory bodies, I have always felt it would be incompatible with that status not to wear a face covering where legally required to. However, I shall cease to do so from 19 July when these requirements lapse. (1/10) I shall do this as an act of solidarity with all the people who have been exempt because of respiratory and neurodiverse conditions. (2/10)

I am seeing a lot of tweets about vaccinating UK teenagers and advocates getting air time in places like @BBCNewsnight As a JCVI member, I am constrained in what I can say right now. However, two things are worth considering (1/8) The risk/benefit for teenagers must be firmly established. The UK programme has already been modified because the risk/benefit of AZ was not clear for 20 and 30 somethings. Teenagers are at intrinsically low risk from Covid. Vaccines must be exceptionally safe to beat this (2/8)

There has been something of a moral panic about gatherings of young people in Nottingham parks. Some thoughts @BBCNottingham @bbcemt @NottinghamPost (1/8) Always mistrust ground level photos and videos of such gatherings - the lenses used tend to foreshorten the images and give a stronger impression of crowding than is actually the case. Only drone footage can give an accurate picture of the density and social groupings (2/8)

I have now been able to review the Warwick model that projects continuing Covid restrictions until late next year (1/7)
gov.uk/government/pub… As I suspected, a key problem is a failure to re-calibrate the outcomes to reflect the impact of vaccination. This is the key assumption: "We sub-divide into the effects of protection against symptoms (disease efficacy) and reduction in transmission" (2/7)

.@ClareCraigPath has been getting a hard time for questioning whether an asymptomatic infection can be a disease. She has a better grasp of the philosophical issue than her critics, which tells us something interesting about the difference between medicine and biology. (1/7) LS King was a wise US physician "Biological science does not try to distinguish between health and disease. Biology is concerned with the interaction between living organisms and their environment. What we call health or disease is quite irrelevant." (2/7)
jstor.org/stable/185276

I am very concerned about the implicit ageism in a lot of the debate around Christmas - and more generally around Coivd-19 policy. Some highlights from @age_uk valuable overview of the lives of people over 65 (1/5) ageuk.org.uk/globalassets/a… There are just under 12 million people in the UK aged over 65 - only 400,000 live in care homes. 93.5% of those aged 60-9 are not considered frail by official definitions. Even among the 90+group, 35% are not defined as frail (2/5)

There is currently a great deal of fear-mongering about Christmas visits in the UK. In order to assess the risk associated with a family or social visit within the rules, it is useful to consider some facts. The science is not exact but the orders of magnitude are secure (1/8) Around 20%, possibly up to 30%, of infections are asymptomatic - the person will not know they have been infected. Around 80% of symptomatic infections are mild or moderate. They do not require a hospital admission (2/8)

As a public health scientist, I think it is irresponsible to continue promoting fear and anxiety about the Covid-19 risks of Christmas when we cannot know the circumstances of every individual's life. (1/4) I am 70 with no known co-morbidities. Several of my likely family visitors have already had Covid and recovered. They will still be largely immune from reinfection - risk is 1 in several million. I shall hug them freely. (2/4)