🇺🇦 successes on the sea and in Crimea in demolishing the Russian fleet is a sign of learned lessons from the summer counteroffensive, analytics of @TheStudyofWar think.

Ukraine's strategy to maintain pressure along the entire frontline against Russian forces is proving effective. This approach, pinning down Russia's elite units in Bakhmut and enabling advancements in Zaporizhia Oblast, has been crucial, forcing 🇷🇺 units to reposition and thwarting the creation of a strategic 🇷🇺 reserve🧵
Ukraine's innovative tactics in the Black Sea are hindering the operations of 🇷🇺 fleet and challenging its forces in Crimea.

By diminishing naval superiority, Ukraine is reshaping strategic dynamics and making the 🇷🇺 military's stance in Crimea increasingly indefensible.

(Video: test of the 🇺🇦-made UUV, underwater drone)

Praising Putin or protesting against the invasion of Ukraine in the center of Moscow, Russians equally suffer from internal issues with the healthcare services quality, unemployment, and communal service pricing. The recent survey by @OpenMindsInst revealed such attitudes.

As we previously concluded, Russian society is polarised and can be segmented to 4 groups based on 15 criteria, from mental well-being and age to the attitudes toward the war against Ukraine.

A new report regards the common and diverse in thoughts different clusters of Russians have about their present and future 🧵
Short overview of 4 clusters of Russians:

◽️ Hawks (36%): Proud & aligned with govt;

◽️ Loyalists (39%): Support govt but rather as a habit seek varied info;

◽️ Moderates (19%): Discontented yet passive; focus on personal life;

◽️ Liberals (8%): Oppose regime, trust non-state info, vocal about stance.

Like any other, Russian society is a complex & heterogeneous object of social reality.

6 months ago @OpenMindsInst analysed Russians by 15 criteria, including the attitudes toward the war and current gov, and divided them to 5 clusters.

There were authoritarian Hawks & blindly loyal to the gov & its policies Loyalists as the most pro-war clusters.

And, in reverse, Liberals, actively protesting the regime in Russia, & Moderates, who had modest levels of anti-war convictions.

Uncertain cluster speaks for itself, having average rates of support for the war but being unsure if Russia is moving in the right or wrong direction.

Recently, we did a follow-up study to see what has changed🧵
Hawks account 24%, marking a slight change from the previous study at 23.5%.

Strong believers in Russia's direction, these Russians exhibit deep trust in gov institutions, from the President to the media (which they avidly consume).

Interestingly, while they feel like political agents, Hawks rarely express their political will through any legal means.

They define themselves first and foremost through their national identity: Hawks see more meaning in Russia's state than in their personal life compared to other clusters👇

As a result of this, they place great importance on the Russian position and image on the global arena.

"The USSR was a peaceful country unprepared for WW2," says the Russian propaganda myths about the German invasion of the USSR.

Nowadays we know the USSR and the Third Reich were partners on the eve of WW2, signing the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact secret protocol in August 1939 that partitioned Central and Eastern Europe between them.

But what are the other signs the "unexpected German invasion" is a fake?🧵
The Soviet propaganda was working on creating a suspense atmosphere, supporting the narrative of the USSR being surrounded by hostile countries and enemies, jealous of socialists.

When Stalin came to power, preparations for war became real. Importantly, preparations for offensive warfare.

The Dulles' plan is perhaps Russia's most famous conspiracy theory. Allegedly created by CIA Director Allen Dulles in 1950-60th, the plan "aimed to degrade the USSR’s youth morally and socially."

While some ordinary people believe in it, what's concerning is that it's also taken seriously by politicians and public figures🧵 The plan’s roots are from the Soviet novel "Eternal Call" by Anatoli Ivanov. His narrative, embedded with anti-Semitic subtexts, later got misconstrued as the conspiracy theory we know today.

The Dulles Plan could also have been inspired by Dostoevsky's "Demons", where the revolutionary Verkhovensky proposed to encourage alcoholism and other vices to weaken potential resistance to the new revolutionary dictatorship.

The Dulles Plan also resembles the fake "Protocols of the Elders of Zion," which allegedly describes the "real" Jewish plan to seize power in Russia.

Life imitates these pieces of "art" in Russia, especially in politics. In 2020, Russia's permanent representative to the EU, Vladimir Chizhov, cited the Dulles Plan as an actual source in one of his articles.

At the BRICS Summit, ended yesterday, Russia, seeking to mitigate its international isolation, along with China, championed the expansion of BRICS with 6 new countries.

Yet, the South African authorities complied with international principles, which urge to arrest Putin, so Russia’s president's virtual presence underscored Russia's distance from the community. Especially as other BRICS nations maintain ties with Western democracies.

Still, during the summit in Johannesburg, Russian propaganda was portraying BRICS as a revamped UN without Western influence, positioning Russia at the forefront.

Three more key messages of 🇷🇺 propaganda👇 At the BRICS summit, the Kremlin message was clear: "Isolation is broken forever."

Despite Putin's virtual attendance, 🇷🇺 officials & media painted it as a triumph against the US efforts to isolate Russia.

MFA spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, likened Putin's online participation to India's president leaving the meeting room for the to personally monitor the arrival of the Indian lunar station.

So for Zakharova, an arrest warrant from the Int Court of Justice and the conquest of the moon are equally valid reasons to be absent.

X users who clicked links of FB, IG, @bluesky, Substack, & @thetimes on X, experienced delays of about 5 seconds before accessing them, reported @washingtonpost yesterday.

Despite the restoration of normal access to some websites, it might be a call for other platforms to become aware🧵 The delay was connected with a link-shortening service that X uses for tracking and throttling activity to specific websites, specifically those previously criticized or targeted by X's CEO.

Russian propaganda is separating Eastern Europe countries to draw their attention from the real threat - itself. It creates the image of the aggressive countries to 🇺🇦 & their neighbors. Using Telegram messages as case studies, @DetectorMedia reveals how Russian propaganda… https://t.co/G0Qtp9n3BBtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Poland: “divides Ukraine, Belarus, occupies 🇷🇺 Kaliningrad”, according to Russian propaganda. Poland has no territorial disputes with its neighbors. The story about Kaliningrad was made up after former Polish Army Commander Waldemar Skrzypczak labeled the Kaliningrad region of 🇷🇺… https://t.co/sORmrKGgtbtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Russian occupation of the nuclear power plants (in Chornobyl and Zaporizhzia) in Ukraine sets a precedent in world history. Besides these actions, they blackmail Ukraine and the West with the “nuclear fist” while, ironically, Russian nuclear weaponry is Ukraine-made from the… https://t.co/YuDbx3FLmNtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
1/ The Kremlin media, propagandists, and some politicians are actively speculating on the nuclear topic trying to preserve Russia’s powerful image through words. The Kremlin media are balancing on the edge of absurdity & pure lie. Their objective is to scare people and make them… https://t.co/RzJU109uX1twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Russian propaganda refers to the Ukrainian government as a “Nazi regime.” Actually, Russia is at risk of sliding towards antisemitism. Moscow Chief Rabbi Pinchas Goldschmidt left Russia last year and told Russian Jews to flee too before they are made scapegoats for the invasion… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… While it's true that Putin may not be an antisemite, he has shown himself to be a pragmatic leader with few moral principles. In times of crisis, he may change the policies to maintain power, as, for example, did Mussolini. Initially, fascism in Italy had no antisemitic elements,… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Boris and Arkady Rotenberg were among the most famous 🇷🇺 oligarchs to be sanctioned after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The Rotenberg Files, a leak of never-before-seen insider documents, gives insight into how they preserved their wealth and avoided sanctions... The Rotenberg dossier shows that the Putin family owns a €10.8 million chalet in an Austrian ski resort. Local residents claim to have seen Putin's daughter, Maria Vorontsova, and her former partner at the chalet. The property is registered to a Cypriot company that received a… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

In today’s Russia, literature is the same state control tool as it was during the USSR and 🇷🇺 Empire. In 2015, Putin acknowledged the instrumental role of literature, declaring it the year of literature in Russia. He emphasized its importance in “uniting a nation around spiritual… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Modern Russia's exploitation of literature differs from past authoritarian regimes due to rapid changes in the digital world. In the monopolized information space, state-controlled media plays a crucial role in disseminating "right" narratives, shaping historical memory, and… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

The Soviet Union under Stalin's leadership embraced censorship as a norm, resembling Nazi Germany in its approach to art and literature. The Bolsheviks saw art as a tool for promoting Marxist-Leninist ideology or the cult of Stalin’s personality. Stalin & his favorite writer Maxim Gorky believed literature should portray a positive image of Soviet life. This gave rise to "socialist realism," an art style that served the USSR & the Communist Party's aims. Any art depicting a negative or actual image of the regime was… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

History shows that literature in an authoritarian regime becomes its propaganda tool. In 1933, Hitler called for the "political and moral purification of public life" in Germany, using education, cinema, literature, and the media to preserve "German values." The Nazis quickly turned the "purification" campaign into state policy. The Reichskammer für Kultur, headed by Hitler's chief propagandist Goebbels, united creative artists under Nazi leadership. Membership in it became mandatory for artists, and non-compliance led to… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

More than a week passed after the Kakhovka HPP explosion but it feels like a month. A single week cannot hold so much bad news. The short chronology of the destruction by @hwag_ucmc Experts consulted by the 🇷🇺BBC stated that shelling alone cannot destroy the dam. Despite shelling the Antonov Bridge with HIMARS, it remained intact as 🇺🇦 military deliberately damaged only the road surface. Later that bridge was blown up by the Russian withdrawing troops.

In the Russian Empire, writers had enormous influence as key agents of the dominant ideology. Poets and prose writers, often sharing imperialist beliefs, echoed views that justified the actions of the tsarist regime and promoted official narratives. An example is the November Uprising, a Polish uprising suppressed by the tsarist regime. Pushkin, a key 🇷🇺 poet of Romanticism, supported the oppression of Poles by Nicholas I. Considering the West an enemy because of its support for Poland, Pushkin even threatened European… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Russian propagandists distort history by emphasizing the USSR's role in defeating Nazi Germany while downplaying the contribution of the nations. Including Ukrainians, over 10 ml of which died in WW2. Russia devaluate and discredit Ukrainians who fought against the Nazis. By silencing their sacrifices and contributions, or even proclaiming them as collaborators, Russian propagandists aim to diminish the importance of Ukrainian involvement in the victory over Nazism.

Today is the Day of Sevastopol - the capital of the Crimean Peninsula. The "history" written by Russian propaganda created a myth that there was nothing substantial there before Russia. A thread on the 2000 years' history of Sevastopol - the former Chersonesos: The ancient historians Strabo and Herodotus left for us the first written memory about the Chersonesus. Founded by the ancient Greeks in the 5th century BC, the city was known as the most productive wine center of the Black Sea and was a hub of exchange between the Greek, Roman,… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

On June 6, a devastating terrorist act by Russia resulted in one of the worst technological disasters in recent decades. Russian propaganda immediately resorted to its usual "mirroring the blame" tactics, attempting to shift responsibility to Ukraine. Russian propagandists presented various arguments to justify their false claims using the catastrophe as an excuse for Ukrainian failures on the battlefield or delaying Ukraine's counteroffensive, and creating a provocation at Zaporizhzhya NPP.

Russia rewrites and weaponizes history. One of the key tactics employed by Russian propaganda is the minimization or denial of the suffering experienced by Ukrainians during the Soviet era, particularly the Holodomor, an artificial Stalin’s famine genocide in the 1930s. Russia… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… As the famous American Holodomor researcher James Mace wrote, "Forced collectivization (confiscation of property) was a tragedy for the entire Soviet peasantry, but for Ukrainians it was a special tragedy. Given the actual destruction of the urban elites, it meant the elimination… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Russian propaganda uses history as the instrument of the war. It aims to emphasize the historical ties between Ukraine and Russia. Russia highlights its connection with Kyivan Rus', portraying the latter as a "common ancestral state" of Russia and Ukraine. Russia used this historical manipulation for centuries, trying to create a myth of its great ancestry. The name "Russia" was appropriated to create a connection with the Kyivan Rus’, despite that there were no nations in a modern sense a thousand years ago. They evolved later, as… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…