Virginia governor / NBC exit polls

Independents: Spanberger+15
Moderates: Spanberger+35

Voters who see neither party favorably prefer Spanberger 72-23% (!)

36% voted "to oppose Donald Trump," 17% voted "to support Donald Trump; 46% say he's not a factor

Trump approval: 42/55 NBC News exit polls

VIRGINIA GOV 2021
Economy is the #1 issue
Economy voters prefer Youngkin+11 over McAuliffe

VIRGINIA GOV 2025
Economy is the #1 issue
Economy voters prefer Spanberger+20 over Earle-Sears

Sea change. TBD if it replicates elsewhere.

The House has closed the previous vote after hours of keeping it open and is now voting on the RULE to officially begin debate on the Senate mega-bill.

Laughter in the chamber as presiding officer Womack says it’s a 5-minute vote. Rule vote is ongoing. Two Republicans have voted NO. They can afford maximum three defections or this goes down and halts the bill.

CR NEGOTIATIONS UPDATE: There are no negotiations.

It’s Republicans talking amongst themselves about what’s next after Elon & Trump blew up their deal.

But they’ll still need Dems.

“There’s nothing. As far as I know, nothing's been presented so far,” @RepRobertGarcia tells me. .@RepRobertGarcia on why Democrats aren’t so jazzed about Donald Trump’s new debt limit demand:

“Donald Trump wants to get rid of the debt ceiling because he wants to essentially pass huge tax cuts to enrich his friends, to enrich Elon Musk and his companies, and redistribute hard working wealth that middle class Americans have earned… And so we can have a discussion about the debt ceiling separately.”

Scoop: Mike Johnson took a dig at "Obamacare" at a PA event Monday and promised "massive reform" to health care if Trump wins.

He said GOP will take a "blow torch to the regulatory state."

"Trump's going to go big."

As Trump reopens ACA fight.

WATCH: nbcnews.com/politics/congr… “No Obamacare?” one attendee asked Johnson.

“No Obamacare,” Johnson responded, rolling his eyes. “The ACA is so deeply ingrained, we need massive reform to make this work and we got a lot of ideas on how to do that.”

Footage obtained by @NBCNews 👇

nbcnews.com/politics/congr…

Donald Trump backs out of a previously scheduled presidential debate on ABC after Kamala Harris replaces Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket. Now he says he’ll agree to debate Harris if it’s hosted by Fox News in a “full arena audience.” Harris campaign responds: “Donald Trump is running scared and trying to back out of the debate he already agreed to by running straight to Fox News to bail him out.” She will be at the ABC debate whether or not he shows up, campaign says, asking if he’s “too scared.”

https://twitter.com/jake__traylor/status/1819740235246297600

NEW: Top Democrats won’t join calls for Sotomayor to retire.

But in interviews with NBC, they’re voicing fears of a RBG redux.

“We should learn a lesson. And it’s not like there’s any mystery here about what the lesson should be.”

w/ @lawrencehurley:

nbcnews.com/politics/supre… Democrats remain haunted by what happened to Ginsburg. Rewind to 2014: She was 81, Obama was president, Dems had 55 Senate seats; liberals called on her to retire. She rejected them. And died in 2020, got replaced by Trump pick A.C. Barrett—the 6-3 SCOTUS. nbcnews.com/politics/supre…

NEW: Republican Study Committee releases a sweeping budget plan

RSC chair is HERN; 170+ members incl Speaker and his full leadership team.

Highlights:

• Raises Social Security retirement age for future retirees
• Converts Medicare to "premium support" a la Paul Ryan plan 
• Rolls back ACA
• Endorses Life At Conception Act

nbcnews.com/politics/congr… On Social Security, RSC budget endorses "modest adjustments to the retirement age for future retirees to account for increases in life expectancy." Calls for lowering benefits for the highest-earning beneficiaries. No changes for current/imminent retirees. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…

NEW: McConnell clinched a major border-aid deal and encouraged Republicans to support it.

Just 4 voted yes.

McConnell's once-formidable influence w/ Senate GOP is waning, and detractors are growing, as it becomes Trumpier—like House GOP.

w/ @frankthorp: nbcnews.com/politics/congr… Ron Johnson: "How did we get ourselves in a situation where we’re being blamed for Biden's open border policy? How could that be possible? The answer is McConnell made that possible."

McConnell notes that his critics were the ones demanding a border bill. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…

NEW —> ‘It’s embarrassing’: Republicans worry they have no achievements to run on in 2024

“We have nothing. In my opinion, we have nothing to go out there and campaign on,” says one House GOP lawmaker.

He’s not alone.

nbcnews.com/politics/2024-… CHIP ROY: "I want my Republican colleagues to give me one thing — one! — that I can go campaign on and say we did. One!"

Rs conveyed displeasure.

He's unimpressed.

It "does not matter" who's in majority, he said. "We keep doing the same stupid stuff."

nbcnews.com/politics/2024-…

The Senate just unanimously agreed to fill committee slots vacated by Dianne Feinstein. Perhaps most significant: @LaphonzaB fills the empty Judiciary Committee slot and Democrats regain their majority on a key panel. Biden’s judicial nominees can now move without GOP support.

https://twitter.com/senateppg/status/1714432920608293115

As we had been reporting for months, Republicans didn’t block Dems from filling the Judiciary Cmte seat. There were months of fabricated claims, amplified by figures like @HillaryClinton & @SenStabenow, that Rs would leave that seat open permanently if Feinstein vacated it. Nope.

NEW: Democrats are holding firm and refusing to help Republicans out of House speaker mess

They're still behind Jeffries.

No serious talks of a coalition speaker.

Dem leaders are trashing Jim Jordan as an "insurrectionist," election denier, extremist.

nbcnews.com/politics/congr… Democratic @WhipKClark on Jordan: "Every Republican who cast their vote for him is siding with an insurrectionist against our democracy."

Dems dropping clues on how they will try to tie every GOP lawmaker to Jordan's brand of politics.

w/ @JulesJester: nbcnews.com/politics/congr…

NEW: A government shutdown wouldn't halt Trump's trials

DOJ says criminal litigation is an essential function that stays funded

Instead, House Republicans are pushing to use a funding bill to defund or rein in Trump’s 3 prosecutors

This has divided GOP nbcnews.com/politics/donal… Georgia GOP Rep. Andrew Clyde, who sits on the Appropriations Committee, says he'll intro amendments to the Justice funding bill that blocks Trump's three prosecutors—Smith, Fani, Bragg—from using that authority on him until after the 2024 election.

nbcnews.com/politics/donal…

NEW: Debt limit law sets up 'enormous' stakes for 2024 election

On the agenda in 2025:

• Another debt limit deadline
• 2-year budget deal expires
• Trump tax cuts expire
• Obamacare subsidies sunset

Lawmakers—“Incredible,” “enormous” “big, big, big” nbcnews.com/politics/congr… .@RepBrendanBoyle on the 2024 stakes:

"So many major pieces of legislation over the last several years expire in 2025. So the winners of the next election will have the ability to shape policy for the rest of the decade."

nbcnews.com/politics/congr…

NEW: Republicans reject Feinstein committee swap, putting Democrats in a bind

Cornyn is a NO.
Tillis is a NO.

Blackburn, Cotton, Fischer, Capito and Ernst are also a NO.

Ernst: “We're not going to help the Democrats with that.”

No apparent path to 60. nbcnews.com/politics/congr… .@JohnCornyn doesn’t see a path to 60 votes to swap out Feinstein.

“I don't think so,” he says.

He says if she were replaced by another senator there’d be precedent for reorganizing committees.

“That would be a different set of circumstances than this.” nbcnews.com/politics/congr…

Judiciary Committee Chair @SenatorDurbin says he hasn’t spoken to Feinstein. He says “I hope there will be” a full Senate vote to replace her if Republicans block a UC request; he asks Rs to show “a little kindness and caring” for Feinstein because it could happen to them later. Durbin: “She is obviously sensitive to the fact that her absence has an impact on the committee. I'm not going to push her into any other decision. I think we can take care of this issue, do it very quickly. And I hope we can find 10 Republicans who will join us in that effort.”

New: Bernie Sanders and Howard Schultz square off at a Senate HELP hearing on Starbucks labor practices

☕️☕️

Schultz will say Starbucks “has engaged in good faith bargaining.”

Sanders aide: “Don’t get blended into a Frappuccino by Starbucks’ PR team.”

nbcnews.com/politics/congr… Our preview of the hearing, which is unsubtly titled, “No Company is Above the Law: The Need to End Illegal Union Busting at Starbucks.”

w/ @lizbrownkaiser @ryanobles:

nbcnews.com/politics/congr…

The House Energy & Commerce hearing on TikTok is underway. Here is CEO Shou Chew's prepared testimony: d1dth6e84htgma.cloudfront.net/Written_Testim… E&C Chair @cathymcmorris asks TikTok’s CEO whether users can see content on the app about the Tiananmen Square massacre.

He says yes.

She reminds him that lying to Congress is a federal crime.

He says he understands and insists that such content is available.

NEW: Biden escalates fight over Social Security and Medicare, frustrating Republicans

GOP leaders want Biden to stop saying they’re trying to cut benefits

But Biden is persisting; White House says he won’t stop calling out plans from Scott, Johnson, RSC nbcnews.com/politics/2024-… Republicans are annoyed.

Scalise, day after SOTU: “I just hope he stops going around the country telling that falsehood because there’s no truth to it.”

The next day, Biden went to Florida and trashed Republicans over Social Security and Medicare.

nbcnews.com/politics/2024-…

New: In 2011, Obama White House agreed to negotiate with House Republicans on the debt limit.

It went badly.

Talks faltered and pushed US to the brink of default.

Obama & Biden sat in the Oval and decided: Never again.

That forms Biden’s stance today.

nbcnews.com/politics/congr… 2011 experience is key to grasping Biden’s red line on the debt ceiling today. After that near miss, Obama-Biden WH refused to negotiate with threat of default on the table. It worked. House GOP backed off, extended it with fig leafs or pre-agreed budgets. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…

NEW: Republicans demand spending cuts to lift the debt limit. They won't say what to cut. nbcnews.com/politics/congr… There is no GOP plan or unified theory of what to attach to the debt ceiling.

Even the hardliners who demanded conditions aren’t naming their price. But they know it’s something big.

It’s early, but doubtful McCarthy can get 218 Republicans on any bill.

nbcnews.com/politics/congr…

NEW: House Republicans gear up for a debt ceiling fight, clashing with Democrats

Newly empowered GOP conservatives, backed by Speaker Kevin McCarthy, say they'll use the debt ceiling to force budget cuts.

White House says: No negotiations; pay the bills. nbcnews.com/politics/congr… Some House conservative demands to lift the debt limit:

• Dollar-for-dollar spending cuts
• 10-year balanced budget
• Mandatory spending cuts
• Government funding at FY2022 levels

McCarthy has not backed a specific policy but insisted on conditions.

nbcnews.com/politics/congr…