Sam🔔 Profile picture
@employamerica & @employamericaAF
24 May
when it comes to the pursuit of full employment, I would much rather have Jerome Powell as Fed Chair than Raphael Bostic…
in an implicit rebuke of Powell's push for full employment, Bostic gave a big speech criticizing the pursuit of high pressure economy and using the CBO's definition to argue again periods of low unemployment…
in November 2019, Bostic said he would have voted against the rate cut because "my directors were pretty much in the hold stage [with interest rates], so that’s probably where I would have come down for that meeting."…
Read 7 tweets
20 Aug 20
I hope Ted Kaufman (@usstk) retracts these comments. It’s both not true and there’s no way a Biden Administration could get to full employment with this type of mindset.… ImageImage
op-ed from earlier this year… Image
Read 5 tweets
21 Jul 20
if Dan Tarullo had served out his term there would be no Judy Shelton opening... serve your full terms, folks
Props to Lael Brainard for staying ... that should count for something in future debates about who should fill what roles
my main man Marriner served > 16 years: "Marriner S. Eccles was appointed chairman of the Federal Reserve Board on November 15, 1934. He resigned as chairman on January 31, 1948, and remained a Board member until July 14, 1951."…
Read 4 tweets
4 Apr 20
Marriner Eccles memoir (thx to @KalebNygaard) 1/x
on his conversion into an activist for government intervention 2/x
"The honeymoon ended and the wrangling began soon after this cycle was checked and the New Deal at last turned its attention toward the problems of debtor relief."
Read 12 tweets
16 Jan 20
Judy Shelton is ineligible to join the Board of Governors. Governors must come from separate federal reserve districts. Lael Brainard already represents the Richmond district.
Some of you will remember that this is how Peter Diamond was blocked.
"In selecting the members of the Board, not more than one of whom shall be selected from any one Federal Reserve district"…
Read 11 tweets
15 Jan 20
Jay Powell says labor market is not tight

Beige book disagrees: "Employment was steady to rising modestly in most Districts, while labor markets remained tight throughout the nation."
"Wage growth was characterized as modest or moderate in most Districts—similar to the prior reporting period—and there were scattered reports of wage increases from year-end hikes in minimum wages." @ernietedeschi
@ernietedeschi Boston region

"Respondents in these three sectors also reported continued tight labor markets, but none mentioned increasing wages (other than scheduled minimum wage rises in some states)."
Read 18 tweets
16 Dec 19
10 years later thread -- December 15-16, 2009 Federal Open Market Committee
Read 40 tweets
10 Dec 19
😜👏”Mr. Powell...doesn’t always come to big issues with a firm view but instead waits to hear what everyone says first. Some staffers have traced certain intellectual curiosities to economic debates he has been following on Twitter.”
Powell in the 2012 transcripts…
Read 5 tweets
3 Nov 19
10 years ago -- November 3-4, 2009 FOMC meeting…
Read 21 tweets
2 Jul 19
This is the Judy Shelton thread [1 of many]
1st thing--

this is not a done deal

Stephen Moore and Herman Cain were supposed to be nominated ... never were

Marvin Goodfriend was nominated ... never confirmed
2nd thing -- Fed governors serve long terms.

There are 2 open seats - one goes until 2024, the other goes until 2030.

Shelton has huge monetary ambitions, already lives in Virginia and is financially secure. She could serve until 2030.
Read 37 tweets
20 Jun 19
FOMC 10 years ago -- 6/23/2009

Brian Sack: "...expectations of monetary policy tightening this year remain limited, but the market now anticipates nearly 200 basis points of tightening over 2010."

"...The rise in the two-year yield was driven in part by a shift in monetary policy expectations, as the 'green shoots' theme continued to gain traction."
Brian Sack goes on: "The move towards higher yields has been accompanied by considerable chatter in the market about inflation risks." But don't worry about it.
Read 20 tweets
22 Mar 19
(a) a 'thank you' for writing the book (…) and the op-ed (…)
(b) an elaborate ploy to get me to waste my next 12 hours on Moore clips
(c) a real thing

I think I am going with (a) but what do I know
i'm still skeptical this will materialize but looks like it may be (c) after all

Read 146 tweets
18 Dec 18
Might have to do a thread on the WSJ editorial page views on monetary policy through the years
April 2008…
"As the Fed's open-market committee meets this week, what the world wants is a revival of American monetary leadership. It wants the Bernanke Fed to stop the global run on the dollar, and that means declaring an end to its rate-cutting mistake."
June 2008…
"The Fed's dollar indifference has sent an inflation shock through those dollar-linked economies...The result has been the largest decline in America's global economic influence since the 1970s."
Read 47 tweets
16 Sep 18
Should we do this?
9/16/2008 FOMC meeting…

Day after Lehman filed for bankruptcy. And day before Reserve Primary fund broke the buck. FOMC held at 2%.
Big worry is AIG. Geithner skips this meeting to deal with that situation. Bill Dudley not sure if AIG is illiquid or insolvent.
Read 13 tweets
5 Aug 18
10 years ago: August 5 2008

Many reserve bank presidents want hike

Bernanke: "it would be extraordinary if we were to begin raising rates without an immediate inflation problem with the economy still in a declining or extremely weakened situation."…
After he emailed Don Kohn, Fed Vice Chair: "‘I find myself conciliating holders of the unreasonable opinion that we should be tightening even as the economy and financial system are in a precarious position and inflation/commodity pressures appear to be easing." (pg238 of memoir)
You'll be shocked to find out who had best take

Yellen: "I see no case, at this juncture, for signaling that we are likely to adjust policy upward before the end of the year. Indeed, there is a non-negligible probability, to my mind, that the next move will be down and not up."
Read 12 tweets
18 Mar 18
10 years ago today -- 3/18/2008 FOMC [Fed policymaking] meeting

comes days after Bear Stearns rescue but real news --> Fed staff thinks America is in a recession

Fed cuts from 3% to 2.25% but 2 hawks - Plosser and Fisher - dissent


Fed staff: we are in a recession but it will probably be a mild one -- unemployment will rise only 1.25% to 5.75%

Bernanke: I'm more pessimistic. I don't see where the recovery comes from
Lot of talk (from St. Louis, Kansas City, Dallas, Philadelphia, Richmond) about rising inflation at this meeting . Fed staff predict core PCE rising to 2.3% by the end of 2008.
Read 23 tweets
23 Jan 18
Jerome Powell will be confirmed as Fed Chair in 10 minutes. Let's take a walk down memory lane and remember what senators said about Yellen 4 years ago. As Victoria notes, no Fed Chair has ever gotten fewer votes for confirmation. (Thread)
McConnell: "I will not be supporting Janet Yellen’s confirmation to the Fed, in large part over serious concerns I have about her commitment to the most important job of the central bank — maintaining the purchasing power of the dollar.”…
Cornyn: “Ms. Yellen subscribes to the liberal school of thought that the best way to handle to our nation’s fiscal challenges is to throw more money at them."…
Read 21 tweets